SPX market bounce faces volatile downside risk

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

SPX

Market context

SPX has delivered a textbook relief bounce off the back of broader market optimism. After retracing 82% from its highs, SPX rebounded over 110% from the $0.30 lows — a sharp recovery driven by speculative flows. But make no mistake: this is a low-liquidity, high-risk asset, and in a market that's still structurally cautious, tokens this far out on the risk curve remain highly vulnerable. While the bounce has been strong, the broader macro environment doesn't support a sustained upside for these kinds of assets. Profit-taking is expected to be resistance, especially from participants who've been underwater for months.

Technical analysis & market mechanics

• • SPX has bounced ~110% from the $0.30 low and reclaimed $0.58 — now acting as local support.

• • Local resistance sits at $0.65, with a secondary resistance level at $0.74.

• • If the price continues higher, the key short zone begins at $0.82 and extends to $0.99.

• • This zone aligns with the upper boundary of a structured descending channel visible on the higher timeframe chart.

• • Price action has been vertical — a straight-up, low-volume grind — typical of illiquid tokens in relief cycles.

• • The 0.82–0.99 zone is likely to attract significant supply as trapped holders look to exit positions.

• • The downside target for any short position is a return to $0.30 — the previous swing low and the origin of the breakout move.

• • SPX remains thinly traded, making sharp wicks and volatility more likely — execution must be planned precisely.

• • RSI is currently at 61.52 and has room to move higher based on how it has traded in the past. However, it has come out of oversold territory on the daily timeframe quite aggressively, so we may see some relief in the short term before the price continues higher.

Cryptonary's take

This is one of those setups you wait for. We're not touching SPX unless it trades into $0.82–$0.99. That's the zone where we get aggressive when looking too short into this region. Everything else in between is noise — the short only makes sense once the price enters that structured rejection region. Until then, we sit out. Liquidity is thin; it's already up 2x off the lows, and in this market, sellers are lurking everywhere above. If SPX gives us the setup, we take it. If not, we move on. Patience is key.