SUI at resistance, Griffain confirms downtrend

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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SUI:

Market context

SUI continues to show strength as one of the best-performing assets of this cycle, particularly over the last four to five months. Despite broader market uncertainty driven by macroeconomic concerns such as tariffs, SUI maintains a bullish weekly structure, which is positively against the theme of the alt market

Currently, the price is printing a strong bullish daily candle, with upside rejections around $3, signalling this as an area of active supply. While SUI remains strong structurally, the key question is whether we get further downside to our buy box at $2.6–$2.4, which would require additional market-wide risk-off sentiment and shakeouts.

A four-hour trendline has been drawn to guide this potential downside. As long as the price trades beneath this trendline, the probability of a move into the $2.6–$2.4 buy box remains high.

Playbook

• Primary Buy Zone → $2.6–$2.4: If the price retraces into this zone, it presents a high RR opportunity for long exposure.
• Trendline Retest: If the price remains under the trendline, we continue to hold off on entries, waiting for a breakdown into the buy box.
• Breakout Scenario: If the price breaks above the trendline, we reassess, with $3 acting as a potential pivot for positioning.

Cryptonary’s take

SUI has been a standout asset, consistently attracting liquidity and outperforming broader market trends. However, from a trading perspective, patience is key. Below the trendline, we anticipate further downside into the $2.6–$2.4 buy box, which would provide an optimal entry zone. Above the trendline, a break and retest of $3 would shift the setup, presenting a different trade opportunity. We don’t hold SUI, but given its performance and structure, it remains on watch as a high-conviction trade if it reaches our levels.

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Griffain (GRIFFAIN):

Market context

Griffain ran up over 6,000% from early December, hitting a peak of $600M market cap in just 40–50 days. Momentum was strong, with clear daily higher highs and higher lows keeping the trend bullish.

That changed at a $300M market cap. The higher low from January 13th was taken out on January 27th, confirming a shift in trend. The breakdown was made even clearer when $300M got retested as resistance on January 30th, leading to a selloff down to the current $145M market cap.

$170M was the last key downside level, holding a higher low from December 20–26. That level has now been lost, confirming a bearish trend and invalidating the previous bullish structure. With all key higher lows broken, Griffain is now in a downtrend, with the next major support sitting around the $60M market cap (December 9th swing low).

Playbook

Bearish Structure Confirmed → Griffain is no longer bullish. The trend has flipped, with lower highs and lower lows forming. Next Major Downside Level → $60M market cap is the next real level of interest if the selloff continues. Bullish Reversal Condition → A reclaim of $300M would shift the structure back in favour of bulls, but until then, Griffain stays in the weak category.

Cryptonary’s take

The main move on Griffain is done—just like Cryptonary’s trade called it. The focus should now be on assets with real momentum and conviction plays instead of looking at Griffain as “cheap” just because it’s down.

Right now, the trend is down, and the path of least resistance is lower. Only above $300M does Griffain start to look interesting again. With plenty of other plays offering better upside, the priority should be on assets still in strong trends. For now, Griffain is a no-trade unless there’s personal conviction behind it.

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