The breakout trap? BTC, ETH, SOL & HYPE setups feel too clean

Leverage is low. RSI is rising. And funding rates have turned. On the surface, things look calm - but markets rarely stay that way for long. This week's setup could be the precursor to a violent move. Are you ready?

BTC:

• BTC's Open Interest (by number of coins) has moved up slightly, but not to alarming levels, which would suggest too much leverage has built up.
• BTC's Funding Rate has also returned to more positive territory, whereas last week, Funding was negative for significant periods, suggesting that traders were betting on further downside. But, we know when Funding is negative for too long, that likely suggests a reversal is imminent (upside for price).

BTC's open interest (by number of coins):

Technical analysis

• Bitcoin is attempting to breakout of its downtrend line, and price is now building support on top of the downtrend line, to then potentially put in a move higher over this week.
• $82,000 is the local support, with $88,000 as the local resistance. However, in terms of resistance, it's more of a zone, and it's tricky to find clear levels here.
• In terms of the major horizontal resistance, the clear level is $91,700. A reclaim of this level would be the bullish reversal for then a retest of $100k and the all-time highs. However, in the short term, we don't expect $91,700 to be retested, let alone reclaimed.
• The RSI has cleanly broken out of its downtrend, and it's also above its moving average. It also still remains in the middle territory, suggesting that there may be some room to the upside here.

• Next Support: $82,000
• Next Resistance: $88,000
• Direction: Bullish/Neutral
• Upside Target: $88,000
• Downside Target: $78,000

Cryptonary's take

In the short term, it's possible this move higher can continue, and if it does, we would expect the stopping zone to be between $88,000 and $89,000. If price were to push on to $90,000 to $91,700, we may even look for Shorts again in that range, as that might mean price has got too stretched to the upside in the short-term.

We are still expecting this to just be a relief rally, and for the next few months to be choppy. Therefore, we'll look to take advantage of this choppiness, and we'll be looking to rebuild/re-add to long-term Spot bags, should prices retest the lows, and potentially make new lows. For BTC, that longer-term accumulation zone is between $63,400 and $75,500.

What's next?

ETH, SOL, and HYPE are flashing breakout signals - with upside targets up to 55% higher. Are you positioned right?

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ETH:

• ETH's Open Interest still remains at very elevated levels as traders take advantage of the basis trade. From a zoomed-out perspective, ETH's OI is becoming less and less of a relevant tool when conducting our analysis.
• ETH's Funding Rate has fluctuated between negative and positive, but it now sits at more meaningfully positive levels. However, overall, this reflects indecision amongst traders.

ETH's funding rate:

Technical analysis

• ETH has found support between $1,400 and the $1,530 horizontal level, with price now forming a pennant pattern that looks to potentially be setting up to breakout to the upside.
• ETH is also squeezing into its main downtrend line. A breakout could set up a swift move to at least the next horizontal level at $1,745.
• To the upside, the main horizontal resistances are at $1,745 and $2,160. $2,000 is also a psychological level.
• To the downside, $1,400 to $1,530 remains the support zone.
• The RSI is above its moving average, and it has broken out of its downtrend line, whilst it's still in low middle territory, suggesting that there's further upside to be had.
• In terms of a bullish reversal signal, we'd be looking for a breakout of the local downtrend line and a reclaim of $1,745. We think this is possible in the short term.

• Next Support: $1,530
• Next Resistance: $1,745 (then $2,000)
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $2,000 (maybe $2,160)
• Downside Target: $1,530

Cryptonary's take

In the short term, we expect ETH to see a breakout to the upside, which could see $1,745 retested as the minimum level, with $2,000 potentially being the first major stopping point. However, we do expect this to be a short-term relief rally, and for the $2,000 to $2,160 zone to be the stopping point (local top). We would then lean more bearish again and expect the lows to be retested. That's where we'd look to fill longer-term Spot buys, between $1,230 and $1,530.

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SOL:

• SOL's Open Interest (by number of coins) has spiked higher again, suggesting leverage traders are chasing this move higher.
• This is also reflected in the Funding Rate moving from negative to positive (Longs chasing in), although Funding has cooled off again in the last 12 hours.

SOL's open interest (by number of coins):

Technical analysis

• SOL has broken out of its local downtrend, and price has also comfortably closed above the key $120 horizontal resistance.
• Price is currently at a very local horizontal resistance here at $134. However, the main horizontal resistance is higher up at $148.
• The RSI has also broken out of its downtrend line with the RSI also above its moving average. But, a hidden bearish divergence is now forming (a lower high in price and a higher high on the oscillator).
• To the downside, $120 is the horizontal support, with $98 the major horizontal support still.

• Next Support: $120
• Next Resistance: $148
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $148
• Downside Target: $120

Cryptonary's take

Price has broken out, and SOL may have completed most of this leg higher, but a push to $148 is still possible. There are some positives for SOL that suggest this move higher can continue, but there are also some suggestions that a good portion of the move may have happened already, although we wouldn't be surprised to also see the price continue on to $148. This is tricky to call here.

We're still of the view that we're in the midst of a relief rally and that price can test lower again over the coming weeks and months, and therefore we'll be looking to accumulate longer-term Spot bags of SOL between $81 and $112. Patience until then.

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HYPE:

• HYPE deviated below the horizontal support of $12.00, briefly touching single digits before aggressively bouncing.
• Price broke out of the main downtrend line, reclaimed $12.00 and $14.50, two key horizontal levels.
• Price has since stopped at $17.00, as we expected might be the potential stopping zone.
• The RSI has also put in a hidden bearish divergence (lower high in price and a higher high on the oscillator). This can result in price rejections.
• To the downside, the horizontal levels remain the same, so the supports are at $14.50 and $12.00.
• To the upside, the key level for price to clear above is $17.00

• Next Support: $12.00
• Next Resistance: $17.00
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $18.50
• Downside Target: $10.00

Cryptonary's take

A really great move by HYPE, bouncing considerably from the lows, after weathering the storm that HyperLiquid was going through. We do, however, expect the market to retest lower again, and we see a minimum level of retest being $12.00. Now, we're not sure we'll add to long-term Spot bags at that level, or we'll wait for single digits again. HYPE will have to be a bit more of a moving target, and we'd ideally like single-digit HYPE again, which can be possible should we see more macro uncertainty in the coming weeks and months, which we do expect to get.

For now on HYPE, we remain patient, but it's one of the coins we're viewing strongly, and we think it could almost represent the next major play like SOL was in 2022/2023.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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