From a technical perspective, while BTC and ETH have made new highs, overbought conditions are widespread, suggesting some consolidation may occur before the next leg higher. Solana (SOL) and Thorchain (RUNE) could also see pullbacks from overbought levels. In contrast, Shadow (SHDW) has upside potential after a recent rally. 

Our overall stance is cautiously optimistic. We recommend holding spot positions while looking to capitalise on any leverage-driven selloffs.

TLDR

• Extremely high open interest and positive funding rates across the majors indicate excessive leverage and overcrowded long positions
• For Bitcoin, the recommended buy zone is between $58,800 and $60,200 if the market pulls back to that level.
• For ETH, the buy zones are $3,350-$3,430 and ideally $2,960-$3,080 on dips
• For SOL, the buy zone is around $120-$123 and below $110 if a flush-out occurs
• RUNE is exhibiting overbought technicals, and it could see pullback/consolidation before further upside.
• SHDW has upside potential remaining after a recent rally.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. "One Glance" by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. These are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

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BTC

• Open Interest has soared to extremely high levels, indicating that the system has a lot of leverage that may become vulnerable to a larger-scale flush-out.
• The Funding Rate remains very positive for BTC, indicating there are a lot of Longs, and Long is the overcrowded trade. We will likely get a flush out at some point. Hard to say when, but if you're in leverage with a tight Stop Loss, you'll be prone to a flush out soon.

BTC Open Interest

Technical analysis

• Bitcoin is now in price discovery mode, having broken above prior all-time highs. The upside in the coming months and quarters is likely to be strong.
• Locally, the prior all-time high of $69k should provide some support for price, with greater support being at $63k.
• The RSI is very overbought and on the major timeframes also.
• We have identified the Yellow box between $58,800 and $60,200 as a place to leave Buy Orders if there is a flush out; this is where we'd look to fill Buy Orders.

Cryptonary's take

Due to the mechanics—an overheated leverage market with high Funding Rates—along with overbought trading indicators, we'd suggest not adding to current Bitcoin positions at current prices but continuing to hold overall Spot positions and riding them with the market.

However, we would look to add to our BTC Spot positions if BTC did move the Yellow box as the target zone between $58,800 and sub $60k, with  $60,200. Keep it simple; hold Spot, and refrain from placing leveraged Longs for now.

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ETH

• ETH's Open Interest is also very high, but it doesn't seem as aggressive as BTC's Open Interest build-up. Either way, OI is still too high and looks due for a flush out.
• ETH's Funding Rate is also very positive, indicating that Longs are the overcrowded trade here. Again, this likely concludes with a leverage flush out in the coming week/weeks, So we choose to steer clear of leverage Longs for now.

ETH Open Interest:

Technical analysis

• ETH is in a really clean uptrend and has performed solidly, having closed above key horizontal resistance levels of $3,140, $3,525, and $3,967, although the battle at $3,967 is still on.
• We note that ETH is very overbought on all the major timeframes on the trading indicators, so this should keep us somewhat conservative about adding fresh exposure.
• You'd expect prior resistance levels of $3,140 and $3,525 to become new levels of support.

Cryptonary's take

Once again, we remain wary of potential leverage flush-outs that may occur. However, we remain in Spot positions and are happy to continue holding them for the remainder of the bull market. At current prices, we wouldn't look to add more exposure to ETH; however, if there is a flush lower, we have identified two areas of interest to add to our ETH bags. The first of these levels is the upper Yellow box between $3,350 and $3,430. 

We believe that long-term, this would be a good area to add exposure to ETH, particularly if you're currently underweight in ETH. However, our preferred area to add exposure to ETH would be between $2,960 and $3,080. We only expect this area to be reached if there is a really significant leverage flush out, but even then, it's asking a lot. A wise strategy may be to layer buy orders sub $3,430 down to $2,960.

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SOL

• SOL also has a high Open Interest and a high Funding Rate. Although it is less extreme than BTC's, the outcome is likely still the same: a flush out in the coming weeks, even if it isn't small.
• The playbook is to hold Spot and look to add to Spot positions on big price decreases into leverage flush outs.

SOL Open Interest

Technical analysis

• SOL's trading indicators are still in overbought territory, but they're again less extreme than BTC and especially ETH.
• SOL is continuing to find resistance into the horizontal level of $151. Until a clear candle is closed above that level, we'll likely remain range-bound between $131 and $151.
• The $117 and $131 zones should be strong support areas for price.
• There are two Yellow Buy Boxes. We expect the upper one to fill at some point, so buy orders should be layered there between $120 and $123. This assumes that SOL doesn't just break out above $150. If it does, Yellow Buy Boxes will be re-measured.

Cryptonary's take

The key for SOL to see a more considerable upside is if the price can comfortably break out above $151. If it does, $180 is the short-term target. If there are major pullbacks, we would be buyers of SOL, particularly if price goes sub $120, with our buy orders becoming aggressively sub $110. Like BTC and ETH, we continue to hold Spot positions and let them ride for the bull market, but we'd add exposure to SOL sub $120.

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RUNE

• RUNE, kids, we're back. Brilliant price action.
• Trading indicators have now moved heavily into overbought territory on all major timeframes.
• The next overhead resistance is at $11.00, with the next resistance point at the all-time high, although that does require price to double. Given the most recent move, we'll likely see a pullback/consolidation period before we get a more significant upside.
• To the downside, the nearest support is at $6.53, although the price is well above that level currently. Ideally, you want to see some form of bullish formation (bull flag, pennant, etc.) and price to then attempt to breach above $11.00.

Cryptonary's take

In the short-term, you could expect a slight pullback or even a period of consolidation. As stated above, the most bullish action would be a bullish technical structure form. This may help fuel a move up to and potentially even beyond $11.00.

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SHDW

• Finally, we have some movement from SHDW after we have patiently accumulated in the DCA zone between $0.92 and $1.05 for at least six weeks now—we are currently up approximately 50% from this zone.
• The trading indicators remain subdued and not overbought, meaning there is room for this to go higher in the short term.
• The key area of overhead resistance will be between $1.60 and $1.70. A clean break above this level will be necessary for more meaningful price discovery.

Cryptonary's take 

If you have stuck to the strategy of accumulating between $0.92 and $1.05, you will be up nicely now and in a good position to continue riding it higher. If you are not positioned, we would say this is not the place to ape in. 

If you have missed this opportunity, we would say wait for a larger pullback to the $1.10 area, or wait for other opportunities in other plays.

But we suggest not chasing SHDW at this price point. SHDW has a current MCap of $250m, so we expect it to go much higher during this cycle.