This Week’s Setup: Could Labour Data Swing Markets?

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Good afternoon all,

Despite last week's Core PCE data coming in line with expectations (no upside surprise), the market has continued pulling back during this seasonally weak period. The market is currently pricing for the FED to cut Interest Rates at its mid-September meeting following Powell's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole after the release of the weaker jobs data. This Friday's key labour market data will either tell markets that a September cut is a lock, or if a cut is pushed out to the October meeting.

Key Labour Market Data This Week:

• Wednesday: JOLTs Job Opening - forecast of 7.3m
• Thursday: ADP Employment Change - forecast of 65k
• Friday (1st data): Non-Farm Payrolls - forecast of 70k
• Friday(2nd data): Unemployment Rate - forecast of 4.3%

Scenario 1: the data comes in in line or softer

This is our base case - for a softer print where the numbers come in line or below the forecasts. Should we get this, it would all but lock in a 25bps cut at the mid-September Meeting, and risk assets would likely move slightly higher off the back of this.

Scenario 2: the data comes in in line or hotter

Not our base case, and it would have to come in very hot (north of 130k Non Farms) for it to deter the FED from cutting rates in mid-September. Should we see a 130k or more print, risk assets would likely sell off on the back of this.

Our base case is for this week's labour market data to continue to show a gradual decline (softening), which will likely bring the FED to the rate-cutting table, beginning at the 17th September FED Meeting.

BTC:

BTC is currently out of its main uptrend line, and the price is printing new lows. However, $105k-$112k is a big support range, and we expect the price to consolidate in this zone for the next 1-2 weeks.

Cryptonary's Take:

It's our view that a weakening labour market will bring the FED to cut Interest Rates, bringing them down to a more neutral level over the next 6-9 months. We therefore expect the FED to cut 75-100bps (maybe up to 125bps) in this same period.

Our analysis suggests that prior rate-cutting cycles have been phenomenally constructive for risk assets generally, and for Bitcoin and Crypto in particular. It is therefore our view that we remain in a bull market over the next 6 months (maybe longer), and that this weakness we've seen recently is due to seasonality. For this reason, we continue to be dip-buyers of assets in their value zones.

Later today, we'll be uploading a Market Direction, and tomorrow we will dive into a more detailed Market Update covering all the above.