Tomorrow’s Macro Data Preview & Why it matters for Crypto

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.

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Core PCE, Personal Income, and Personal spending 

Core PCE is one of the FED's preferred inflation gauges and will have a big impact on rate cut decisions.

Personal Income and Personal Spending data will also be released. Their strength will highlight how strong of a position the average consumer is, which will also impact the likelihood rate cuts.

The consensus is for strong numbers across the board which would suggest that the consumer remains robust.

Why It Matters?

Markets are positioned for a bunch of rate cuts over the next 12 months with current predictions sitting at 87% chance for September.

• A Hot Print (0.4%+) would cause a small pullback, with BTC would retesting $110k-$112k.
• If they come in line with expectations (0.3%): Crypto would likely grind higher slowly.
• If they’re softer (0.2%): Crypto prices would push higher quite quickly.

So what‘a our plan?

Going into the release, we are optimistic and allocated. These prints are unlikely to affect a September cut too much. The outlier result (very hot prints) would be what causes a big pullback, however this is very unlikely.

If PCE come in at 0.5% or higher, we'd consider quickly trimming some of our size, but for most of you, it may not be worth taking any action at all, as we'd expect BTC to hold the $108k-$110k support regardless.

Stay tuned for tomorrow!