TON, XRP, BNB & ADA at pivotal points

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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TON

Market context & macro factors:

TON saw a 20% jump following news that Pavel Durov received clearance to return to Dubai post-arrest. This is a re-pricing of past negative news, as TON initially sold off during the arrest. The reaction aligns with short-lived speculative price action, making it a prime shorting opportunity in the current market environment.

TON remains within a structured resistance zone, with the upside capped at key technical levels. Macro headwinds are also building, with reciprocal tariffs on the horizon and the Fed's economic slowdown forecast increasing the likelihood of risk-off sentiment.

Liquidity remains constrained across the market, limiting sustained upside for speculative assets like TON.

Technical analysis & trade strategy:

• RSI (Daily) at 59, showing moderate strength with room to push higher.
• RSI Wedge pattern formed from December to March 14, with a confirmed breakout.
• Reclaimed key resistance at $3.53, now acting as local support.
• Local resistance at $3.90, a key level to monitor for exhaustion.
• Major resistance at $4.35, aligning with diagonal resistance.
• Diagonal resistance structure aligns with $4.35, reinforcing a short setup.
• Breakdown from $3.90 could signal early weakness.
• If price pushes into $4.35 it offers a high-conviction short entry

Trade strategy:

• First short entry at $4.35, stop loss at $5.10
• Second short entry at $4.55, stop loss at $5.10
• Third short entry at $4.75, stop loss at $5.10
• First TP $2.50
• Second TP $2.00

• Next Support: $3.530
• Next Resistance: $3.900
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $4.360
• Downside Target: $2.900

Cryptonary's take

TON's 20% rally is speculative and likely short-lived, lacking sustained momentum. The $4.35- $4.75 zone presents a high-conviction short opportunity, with strong confluence from resistance levels and liquidity clusters.

Downside targets at $2.90, $3.53, and $2.00 remain the focus, with a patient, structured short entry is the best approach.

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XRP

Market context & macro factors

XRP continues to trade within its range, with resistance at $2.60. The macro-environment remains risk-averse due to stagflation fears and overall headwinds for risk assets.

While a short-term push higher is possible, it is unlikely to be a sustained move, and we continue to view any upside as an opportunity to position a move lower rather than expecting a breakout.

Technical analysis & trade strategy:

• XRP remains range-bound between $2.00 - $2.60, with clear structural levels.
• $2.60 is key local resistance, having rejected the price multiple times.
• $2.26 is local support.
• $2.00 is primary support, holding firm despite repeated tests.
• RSI at 52 suggests neutral momentum, allowing for a potential move higher before exhaustion.
• The funding Rate is flat, signalling neutral positioning.
• Open Interest hasn't had any significant increases or decreases, showing that risk appetite remains the same.
• If $2.26 breaks down, we would move into the $2.00 range.
• There's been a buildup of long liquidations at $2.20, showing a stack of overleveraged longs that the market is likely to take out. This lines up with our downside target of $2.20 - $2.26. If these positions get wiped out, this could speed up the move lower.

Trade strategy:

• First short entry at $2.80, stop loss at $3.10
• The second short entry is at $3.00, and the loss is stopped at $ 3.10. Targeting $2.00, with $1.20 - $1.00 as the extended downside move.
• Alternative Play: If $2.60 fails to hold as resistance, wait for exhaustion at $2.80 - $3.00 before entering shorts.
• If $2.00 breaks down, shift focus to shorting a retest of $2.00 as resistance.

• Next Support: $2.260
• Next Resistance: $2.600
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $2.800
• Downside Target: $1.200

Cryptonary's take:

XRP's structure is still holding, and price action is playing out as expected. There's some short-term upside potential, but the focus stays on shorting into resistance, not chasing a breakout.

The $2.80 - $3.00 zone is the best short setup-if price gets there, it'll line up with liquidity grabs and exhaustion signals. If $2.00 breaks down, the play shifts to shorting a retest of $2.00, with $1.20 - $1.00 as the next major downside target.

Patience is key; there's no need to force an entry at $2.60 when the price could be pushed higher and offer a cleaner setup.

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BNB

Market context & macro factors

Following the recent Fed meeting, macro resistance remains strong, and liquidity conditions are still unfavourable. Our stance hasn't changed. BNB remains a prime short setup due to its relative strength and high risk-to-reward downside potential.

While short-term bounces may occur, the broader market remains under pressure, and we remain focused on shorting into key resistance levels rather than chasing the upside.

Technical analysis & trade strategy:

• BNB is currently trading at $625, making this a local resistance zone for now.
• Local support sits at $600, a key level that has held recent price action.
• Key resistance at $650, where price has previously struggled-this is the first level where we expect strong selling pressure.
• The second resistance is at $680, an area of prior supply where the rice was rejected in the past.
• The third resistance at $710, a higher liquidity zone where the price previously failed to sustain the upside.
• RSI is currently at 55, leaving room to push higher before hitting overbought conditions.
• On February 3rd, RSI peaked at 66 when BNB hit $730, confirming historical rejection levels. A similar move would reinforce our short thesis.
• If RSI moves to 60-65, it would signal exhaustion, increasing the probability of a reversal.
• Volume remains low, suggesting that any move higher is likely liquidity-driven rather than a true breakout.
• A break below $600 would indicate weakness, leading to a retest of lower support levels.
• A break below $500 would confirm a larger structural breakdown, opening the door for deeper downside momentum.
• If $500 fails, the price could see further downside pressure toward $450 - $430, where historical demand exists

Trade plan:

• The first short entry is at $650, where initial selling pressure is expected.
• The second short entry is at $680, stacking into strength as the price moves higher.
• The third and final short entry is at $710, and the short position stack is completed.
• Stop loss at $755, ensuring protection against deviation and excessive upside movement.
• Primary downside target at $500, aligning with strong liquidity and prior swing lows
• If the price fails to rally and breaks $600, shorts can be entered on a retest of $600 as resistance, targeting $550 - $500.
• A break below $500 strengthens the bearish case, increasing the likelihood of a move to $450 - $430.
• If invalidated at $755, we will reassess price action and potentially re-enter shorts higher at $780 - $800 if momentum extends further
• Patience remains key are waiting for the price to hit key resistance levels before executing shorts, rather than forcing an early entry.

• Next Support: $600
• Next Resistance: $650
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $680
• Downside Target: $440

Cryptonary's take:

BNB's price action remains almost identical to last week, reinforcing our high-probability short setup. As the market climbs into $650, $680, and $710, this trade provides an opportunity to capture upside moves while maintaining strong positioning for the next leg down.

The Fed's stance continues to suppress risk assets, and if BNB pushes higher, it only further validates our bearish outlook. Patience is key to waiting for the price to reach our levels before executing, ensuring we're positioned for maximum risk-to-reward efficiency.

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ADA

Market context & macro factors

ADA remains weak and has unfavourable macro conditions, with further upside being unlikely. Any rally is more likely a shorting opportunity than a trend shift.

The recent move higher was speculative, and if risk sentiment worsens, ADA could fully retrace its November rally. With economic uncertainty persisting, conditions favour further downside over sustained bullish momentum.

Technical analysis & trade strategy:

• ADA is range-bound between $0.682 support and $0.7480 resistance, currently consolidating.
• Breakout above $0.7480 would shift focus toward short entries at $0.82, $0.86, and $0.90.
• A break below $0.60 would open the door to $0.5150, targeting the wick zone.
• Extended downside target at $0.30 - $0.40 if risk-off conditions accelerate.
• Lack of volume in ADA suggests any move higher is likely to be slow and weak, rather than impulsive.
• A short-term upside into resistance is possible, but the macro setup still favours shorts over longs.
• News-driven catalysts could cause price spikes, but any move into $0.82 - $0.90 remains a prime short opportunity.

Trade strategy:

• First short entry at $0.82, with a stop loss at $1.02.
• Second short entry at $0.86, stacking into strength.
• Third short entry at $0.90, final position before invalidation.
• Stop loss for the full position at $1.02, keeping risk defined.
• The primary downside target is $0.60, aligning with previous structural levels.
• If price fails to rally and breaks $0.60, shorts can be entered on a retest of $0.60 as resistance, targeting $0.5150.
• Break below $0.5150 would confirm a larger structural breakdown, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
• Patience is key, and there's no need to force an early entry when better setups are likely to form.

• Next Support: $0.680
• Next Resistance: $0.820
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $0.8500
• Downside Target: $0.400

Cryptonary's take:

ADA continues to trade within a structured range, and our bearish outlook remains unchanged. A move into $0.82 - $0.90 is the ideal short opportunity, providing a strong risk-reward setup into mid- to long-term downside targets.

The lack of volume and speculative nature of ADA's recent rally further supports the short thesis. Patience is key-forcing an early entry is unnecessary when cleaner setups are forming above. If the price grinds higher into resistance, we will be positioned for the next major leg down.