Market Direction

TON's resistance holds firm at $4.35

Published: Mar 20, 2025

TON’s 20% rally is losing steam as it nears key resistance. With liquidity constraints, macro risks, and a short setup formation for high-conviction, let’s break down the next moves for TON and its critical price levels.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

TON

Market context & macro factors:

TON saw a 20% jump following news that Pavel Durov received clearance to return to Dubai post-arrest. This is a re-pricing of past negative news, as TON initially sold off during the arrest. The reaction aligns with short-lived speculative price action, making it a prime shorting opportunity in the current market environment.

TON remains within a structured resistance zone, with the upside capped at key technical levels. Macro headwinds are also building, with reciprocal tariffs on the horizon and the Fed's economic slowdown forecast increasing the likelihood of risk-off sentiment.

Liquidity remains constrained across the market, limiting sustained upside for speculative assets like TON.

Technical analysis & trade strategy:

RSI (Daily) at 59, showing moderate strength with room to push higher.
RSI Wedge pattern formed from December to March 14, with a confirmed breakout.
Reclaimed key resistance at $3.53, now acting as local support.
Local resistance at $3.90, a key level to monitor for exhaustion.
Major resistance at $4.35, aligning with diagonal resistance.
Diagonal resistance structure aligns with $4.35, reinforcing a short setup.
Breakdown from $3.90 could signal early weakness.
If price pushes into $4.35 it offers a high-conviction short entry

Trade strategy:

First short entry at $4.35, stop loss at $5.10
Second short entry at $4.55, stop loss at $5.10
Third short entry at $4.75, stop loss at $5.10
First TP $2.50
Second TP $2.00

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Next Support: $3.530
Next Resistance: $3.900
Direction: Bullish
Upside Target: $4.360
Downside Target: $2.900

Cryptonary's take

TON's 20% rally is speculative and likely short-lived, lacking sustained momentum. The $4.35- $4.75 zone presents a high-conviction short opportunity, with strong confluence from resistance levels and liquidity clusters.

Downside targets at $2.90, $3.53, and $2.00 remain the focus, with a patient, structured short entry is the best approach.