Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Tron ($TRX):

Overview

Tron ($TRX) has maintained its range despite the wider market sell-off, which saw most altcoins breaking down significantly. Currently, TRX is trading at $0.229, holding just above its range low at $0.224, which has been a strong support level for weeks. The fact that TRX is still inside its range while other assets have broken structures suggests relative strength in the market. However, it is still near the bottom of the range, meaning a breakdown could trigger further downside.

Key levels to watch

• Resistance levels:
  • $0.262 → Top of the range, which TRX needs to break to turn bullish.
  • $0.30 → Major psychological and structural resistance above the range.
• Support levels:
  • $0.224 → Current range low, holding strong despite market-wide sell-offs.
  • $0.209 - $0.208 → 200 EMA on the daily timeframe; previously acted as a strong support in early February.

Potential scenarios

1. Bullish scenario:
   • TRX continues to hold above $0.224, staying inside the range.
   • If the wider market stabilizes, TRX could see a slow grind towards $0.262 and possibly break out higher.
2. Bearish scenario:
   • If TRX fails to hold $0.224, we could see a move toward the 200 EMA at $0.209 - $0.208 for a potential support tap.
   • A break below the 200 EMA would indicate further downside risk, potentially leading to lower support levels.

Cryptonary's take

Tron has held its range exceptionally well, showing relative strength despite market-wide corrections. The key level to watch remains $0.224-as long as this holds, TRX stays range-bound with a potential upside toward $0.262. However, if it breaks down, a 200 EMA retest at $0.209 - $0.208 becomes highly probable. Waiting for either a reclaim of $0.262 or a bounce from the 200 EMA will provide better clarity for the next move.

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BNB:

BNB is now trading below the $650 price point, which was our initial short-entry target. However, the price had other ideas, as we saw a move to the upside, liquidating $700 levels off the back of CZ's Twitter activity and the speculative momentum that followed. This stopped us out, but overall, our directional bias was spot on-we just mistimed the entry.

The risk was well managed at 5%, so no major damage. The Q4 range low remains our desired target. Ideally, we'd see downside momentum slow down, allowing for another short entry around $690-$700, but the market remains choppy and indecisive at these levels.

Current market context

The overall market remains weak, with sell-offs happening across the board. BNB is reflecting this sentiment, showing increased volatility and indecision at these price points. The next couple of weeks, potentially even months, are likely to be choppy with a bias toward the downside. While we may see relief bounces, momentum remains tilted toward lower prices.

Right now, this isn't an environment to be taking aggressive positions unless you are an experienced trader who can actively manage risk. The best approach in conditions like this is patience-less active trading, more observation, and only executing when the right market conditions align.

Playbook

• No Action for Now - Unless you're an active, experienced trader, there's no need to force trades.
• Monitor Price Action at $690-$700 - If the price revisits this zone and weakness shows, a short opportunity may reappear.
• Q4 Range Low Remains the Key Target - If momentum continues, that's where the price is likely headed.

Cryptonary's take

This is a high-risk, low-reward market environment, which means discipline is more important than execution. Right now, BNB is moving as expected, just with more volatility than anticipated. The structure remains weak, and while a short entry around $690-$700 would be ideal, it's a waiting game. Until conditions improve, there's no reason to force entries. Opportunities will come, but patience is key.

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TON:

Toncoin is currently trading around $3.53, which is the key area of interest we'll be monitoring over the coming months. This pullback isn't unhealthy in the grand scheme of things-TON has retraced 61.8% from its ultimate lows to highs, which is a standard Fibonacci level for corrections.

Given the broader altcoin market weakness, as long as TON holds within this region, or even as deep as $2.90, this would still be considered a reasonable and structured pullback. While short- to mid-term price action may remain bearish, the macro perspective remains strong. TON's quality and long-term potential make this an important level to watch rather than a cause for concern.

Current market context

The market continues to lean bearish, with sell-offs happening across the board. TON's price action reflects this broader trend, but the structure remains intact at key retracement levels. Conditions are choppy, and we expect more downside or range-bound movement in the coming weeks. This isn't the time to take aggressive positions-patience is key.

Playbook

• No Action for Now - The market remains uncertain, and this isn't the time to force trades.
• Monitor the $3.50-$2.90 Zone - As long as the price holds in this range, the structure remains valid.
• Wait for Market Conditions to Improve - A shift in momentum is required before any positioning.

Cryptonary's take

This is a high-risk, low-reward trading environment, and there's no reason to take unnecessary exposure. TON's pullback is within normal levels, and the long-term case remains intact, but timing matters. For now, the best move is to observe, analyze, and stay patient-no need to force entries in a weak market.

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SUI:

SUI is showing surprising strength, still holding within the $2.40-$2.60 range. This level was anticipated, making it a strong call from our end. Despite the recent sharp daily sell-off, the market has absorbed that move well, signalling underlying demand.

If we were SUI investors, this kind of price action would be encouraging. While SUI could present an interesting trading opportunity over the next few months, it's still too early to call-we need confirmation that a true bottom is in before considering any positioning.

Current market context

The broader market remains weak, with sell-offs happening across most assets. However, SUI's ability to hold structure at a key level stands out. This resilience suggests it may not follow the same deep corrections seen across the altcoin space. That said, volatility remains high, and there's no need to rush into any trades. Confirmation of a local bottom is still needed before any high-confidence setups can emerge.

Playbook

• No Action for Now - The market is still in a weak state, and SUI needs to confirm a bottom.
• Monitor Price Structure - If demand continues to hold, this could develop into an opportunity, but timing is key.
• Patience Over Speculation - The best plays will come with clear confirmations, not guesses.

Cryptonary's take

SUI's ability to hold strong despite market weakness is notable, and this could develop into a solid opportunity in the coming months. However, structure confirmation is needed before making any moves. For now, there's no reason to act-just observe and wait for the right conditions.

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