Trump executive orders, Tariffs, and Trump memecoin

In this report:

• Trump, Executive Orders and Tariffs.
• The Dollar, Yields and the S&P.
• BTC and Total3.
• Cryptonary's Take.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Trump, executive orders, Tariffs and that Trump memecoin

There's a lot we can cover in this section, so we'll keep it more summarised and have less high-level detail as we have other topics to cover.

Over the last week, we've had a bit of a whirlwind, to say the least: Trump memecoin launch on Friday evening, which rocketed to crazy valuations, the Melania memecoin just 24-48 hours later, then Trump's inauguration, followed by a flurry of Executive Orders, where Crypto wasn't really mentioned.

The Trump memecoin was cool for a number of reasons. Firstly, it was launched on Solana, which almost gives SOL a 'stamp of approval'. Secondly, it shows Trump, or at least Trump's administration, is likely to be very embracing of Crypto.

We've also seen that in some of Trump's appointments, notably David Sachs as the Crypto Tsar and Hester Peirce heading a new Crypto Task Force at the SEC - a really positive, long-term development for the space.

Another key part the market has been looking at is any talk, and then numbers, on tariffs. Chinese markets have sold off today based on the news from yesterday that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on China beginning on February 1st. The sell-off is due to the market pricing in a 2-5% per month tariff and then increasing.

But it obviously didn't foresee a straight-up 10% tariff going on in just over a weeks' time. However, Trump is a negotiator, so you can expect him to change the narrative almost on a day-by-day basis. This is something to be aware of, but try not to get caught up in.

Ultimately, Trump is doing it to bring the Chinese to the negotiating table, trade deals are agreed upon, and then the Chinese will likely ease while the US tries to bring down the $. This would be very positive for risk assets once/if we get to this point.

The Dollar, Yields, and the S&P

On a macro front, the TradFi Index look really positive for risk assets here, at least for now. We're seeing the Dollar look as if it's topped and rolled over, and the same for the US10Y Yield. It's possible we get a very small move up from both in the immediate term, almost a slight relief rally following quite a big move down.

Maybe this comes next Wednesday if Powell turns up to the FED Meeting more hawkish, but this isn't currently expected. It might also be tricky for him to out-hawk his last meeting.

But, overall, the dollar and yields look to be potentially beginning a new downtrend, and they have topped. This is a bullish risk asset if so.

$DXY (dollar index) 1D timeframe:

US10Y yield 1D timeframe:

SPX 1D timeframe:

(no not SPX6900 the memecoin, the S&P500)

We have a breakout on the S&P from the downtrend line. Great to see. Now, there is the potential, that this pulls back a tad, finds support at 6000, whilst also closing the CME gap, before moving higher from there.

Over the last few weeks, the above has been one of the key things we've been monitoring.

Fortunately, with Trump not being as aggressive in some speeches, along with Bessent coming across as great in his hearing (calming Yields), we've seen the DXY and Yields move down whilst the S&P has broken out.

BTC and total3:

Let's first look at Bitcoin Dominance. We can see that we've had a rebound higher into the underside of the uptrend line and into the prior supports, now potentially new horizontal resistances (that 60% or so level).

We'd now be looking for Dominance to begin to reject into this level over the coming weeks and start heading lower and pushing new lows. This chart/metric will be a key gauge for us as to when to go more risk on into new or more Alts and Memecoins.

BTC dominance 1W timeframe:

Total3 (total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) is another metric we'll continue to keep an eye on as to when to risk more heavily again. So far, this chart has done as we expected, being relatively range-bound.

We've seen $930b hold as horizontal support; we're now looking for the $1.13t to be convincingly broken to the upside. We think this will eventually come; it might just take more time.

But, one thing to consider. If this is broken to the upside, it doesn't mean we see widespread alt-season. It would mean new money coming in, but it wouldn't necessarily mean we move away from this hot meta/sector rotation game that the market currently finds itself in.

Total3 3D timeframe:

For BTC, we'll keep it simple here. It has a phenomenal narrative behind it. Arguably, last year and this year are the years we're potentially going to see real institutional adoption with the integration of the ETFs, especially if the law is overturned allowing banks to hold Crypto assets on their balance sheets.

Pullbacks are being bought up, and if we maintain above $98,900, then we expect a breakout of this range to the upside in the upcoming 1-3 weeks.

BTC:

Cryptonary's take

Bitcoin has been very strong considering the market was waiting on Trump to sign some pro-Crypto Executive Orders, which haven't come (yet), bar Ross Ulbricht being released. We have also had some macro pressures alleviate slightly, which has seen the dollar and yield turn lower, and as a result, it is aiding risk.

Alongside this, the market is still waiting on Trump, as it is likely to be for more weeks. On any pro-Crypto Executive Orders, we're likely to see BTC move higher, and even though they've been slow to come, reputable figures within the administration and Crypto have suggested they're coming.

What would really be the cherry on the cake would be if J Powell strikes a more dovish tone at next Wednesday's FED Meeting. Remember, we're coming off the back of low inflation print, and the market is currently not priced for any Interest Rate cuts this year.

In our view, this would be a major catalyst if the data continues to come in, potentially supporting 1 to 2 more rate cuts, and then if we get confirmation from Powell on this, the market can rip.

It's possible, that we won't get much from Powell next week, but maybe in March's meeting, that's where we might get more insight on future cuts, particularly if the data comes out supportively between now and then.

We're of the mind that we should be embracing this new market we're in (more of a rotation from hot sector to hot sector). That may mean that in 2025, we will be less emotional about certain positions (even potentially new positions that we get), and we should be open to the view of clipping out small profits on the way up.

Overall, we're expecting 2025 to be really positive and likely very Bitcoin-led. But in the long term, this is likely fantastic for the space and the ecosystem as a whole. But, play the eco-system to improve your BTC position.

Loads to play for. Some big weeks ahead.