TRX range intact, ONDO tests demand floor

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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TRX:

Overview

Tron ($TRX) has been a standout performer, displaying remarkable strength and stability, while the broader altcoin market has faced significant breakdowns. Where most assets have lost key supports and bled lower, TRX has held its ground, maintaining its well-defined range. This kind of price action suggests strong accumulation and controlled movement rather than panic-driven selling.

For over a month, TRX has remained locked between $0.2249 and $0.262, showing no major signs of weakness despite Bitcoin’s volatility. This strength is not something to ignore. While many assets struggle to recover, TRX continues to consolidate, indicating that buyers are actively defending this range.

However, despite its strength, TRX remains range-bound, and without a confirmed breakout, we remain in neutral territory—a decisive break on either side will determine its next major trend.

Key levels to watch

Resistance levels:

• $0.262 → Key range high, breakout level to confirm bullish continuation.
• $0.30 → Psychological resistance & major level from 2021.

Support levels:

• $0.2249 → Holding strong as range support.
• $0.21 (200 EMA) → If the range breaks down, this is a key confluence area for support.

Potential scenarios

Bullish breakout:

• If TRX breaks and sustains above $0.262, especially with strong volume, we could see a move toward $0.30+.
• A breakout here would confirm that buyers are in control, and with wider market support, TRX could trend higher.

Bearish breakdown:

• If TRX loses $0.2249 and breaks down, then the $0.21 200 EMA level is the next key support. • A clean loss of this support could trigger deeper corrections, targeting $0.193 - $0.18 as potential lower supports.

Cryptonary’s take

TRX is not following the broader market’s weakness—it is holding up well and still within its established range, signalling relative strength. However, range-bound conditions can last longer than expected, and choppy price action remains the reality until we see a confirmed breakout.

For now, we are waiting for confirmation—if TRX breaks above $0.262, there could be an opportunity to capitalize on a breakout trade. Otherwise, chop remains the most likely scenario, and patience will be key.

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Ondo Finance ($ONDO)

Overview

Ondo has been in a retracement phase after hitting its all-time high of $2.14 in mid-December 2024. Since then, the price has pulled back nearly 60%, touching a low of $0.86 today. Given the broader market weakness, this retracement is part of a larger reset, and ONDO is currently trading near key structural support zones that could determine its next move.

From a structural perspective, ONDO's price action has been fairly methodical- a massive run-up from its base in August, followed by a steady pullback rather than an outright collapse. This signals a controlled retracement rather than panic selling.

The $0.86 level is now being tested as local support, and how ONDO reacts here will be crucial in determining whether it consolidates before another leg up or continues to slide into deeper demand zones.

Analysis

Current range & key levels

• Support: ONDO has entered a key range between $0.86 (current bottom) and $1.129 (local resistance). This range is critical in the short term, as a sustained move above $1.129 would indicate renewed strength.
• Resistance: The $1.129 level also aligns with the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe, which is currently acting as a dynamic resistance. Additionally, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level sits around $1.12, adding further confluence to this area as a major hurdle for price recovery.

Potential breakdown into weekly demand zone

• ONDO is currently testing an ascending white trendline, which previously acted as a launchpad for its rally from $0.50 to $2.14 between August and December.
• Below this trendline, the weekly demand zone (marked in grey) between $0.75 and $0.58 becomes critical. If ONDO fails to hold the $0.86 support, we may see a price wick into this demand zone, creating a potential bottoming structure.
• This would mirror ONDO's price action from August to October, where it consolidated in this exact demand zone before igniting a strong uptrend.

Potential scenarios

Bullish scenario:

• ONDO holds the $0.86 support, reclaims $1.129, and consolidates within this range before breaking higher.
• A clean breakout above $1.129 could trigger a pushback toward $1.30 - $1.50.

Bearish scenario:

• If ONDO breaks below $0.86, the price could wick into the weekly demand zone ($0.75 - $0.58) before finding a stronger base.

Cryptonary's take

ONDO is approaching a critical phase in its price structure. The asset has retraced significantly but remains in a controlled correction rather than a collapse. The key factor now is whether buyers step in at $0.86 or if the price dips into the $0.75 - $0.58 demand zone.

From a macro perspective, ONDO's fundamental narrative remains strong, and its ability to consolidate at key levels before moving higher has been well-established. If the price follows its historical trend, this could be the area where a bottoming process begins, but confirmation is required before considering an aggressive move to the upside.

For now, patience is a key watch for reaction at $0.86 and potential entries in the demand zone if the price wicks lower and the wider market gives us the green light.

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