As you might know, September is historically known as THE bearish month. 

Like clockwork, the market takes a hit every September – the bar was low, and we came into this month with little expectations.

Until today! Is the crypto curse losing its potency?

We might end the month in the green for the first time in years. Prices have started to reverse, and optimism surfs through the candles again. But as always, there’s a catch - this week is filled with critical macro events that will decide the fate of the remaining days of September, potentially even October. Today, we dive into the graphs and share our expectations for the general market and the top movers in our portfolio!

TLDR 📃

• The market’s chances of reversing to the upside have increased after last week’s candle closure. We dive into the price action and unveil our targets.
• Optimism closed as a bullish engulfing last week. We view this candlestick as the ultimate sign of control. The OP token is now in bull mode 🐂
• ASTR’s Supernova flopped, but its price still has a chance to rise as it recently reached support.
• Other altcoins are preparing to bounce, but tokens such as LDO are expected to break out during October or November. 

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the R:R trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice. Any capital-related decision you make is your responsibility and yours only.

Cryptonary’s portfolio 📁

Our portfolio contains BTC, ETH, ARB, DYDX, LDO, SNX, FXS, LBR, THOR & XAUT, but these are three assets you should have your eyes on right now…

BTC | Bitcoin (Weekly)

Bitcoin just pulled a 180°

It appears that history is repeating itself. Remember how we mentioned a similarity between the current price action and the March - June timeline? Well, it’s playing out exactly in the same manner. Check this for context. 🔎

The deal is quite simple - Bitcoin bouncing from $25,150 has increased the odds of reversing to the upside. In fact, our price targets have moved up to the $28,750 - $32,000 range in the short term. But a handful of macro events this week can, and likely will, influence Bitcoin’s price. For example, we have a FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed will decide what to do about interest rates again - this alone will bring a lot of volatility in financial markets. Check this website here to stay updated with these events and their timings. If you see an event with three stars, you should keep your eyes on it - it means it’s important 👀

BTC | Bitcoin (Daily)

What is Bitcoin telling us on the lower timeframes?

For further confluence, we decided to dive into the daily timeframe. See the RSI? It’s only at a value of 50 despite rising over 6% in the past few days, which means more upside is possible. Not only that, but we have a bullish divergence in play. Bitcoin’s price made a lower low, while the RSI made a higher low - another confluence to use for our bullish bias. We could easily see Bitcoin’s price reaching $28,750; it’s just a matter of whether the macro events for this week will impact the price positively or not. Once the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches the overbought region (value over 70), you should start looking to book some profits on your altcoins. Why? Most altcoins will rise and fall relative to Bitcoin’s price, and some will likely drop aggressively in the case of a sudden drop in Bitcoin.

LDO | Lido DAO

What’s LDO up to these days?

The asset has been mostly trading in a falling wedge for the past 200+ days. And just last week, we saw it testing the bottom side of this price pattern, where it found additional demand. Now, LDO is heading for the upper side of the wedge. But there’s a requirement - Bitcoin must keep rising for LDO to continue on its upside path. We’re expecting a general breakout from the wedge in October.

SNX | Synthetix

SNX saw immense demand two weeks ago. It started on an impressive note, with a 27% surge in seven days. However, SNX gave back most of those gains by the end of that week. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that SNX has decent odds of rising. As long as we stay above that supporting channel, our eyes are on $2.80.

Cryptonary’s watchlist 🔎

Our watchlist contains DOT, SYN, OP, ASTR, RUNE, SOL & MINA. But today, only three assets take the spotlight…

OP | Optimism

Peep last week’s candle - that’s a bullish engulfing. Bullish engulfings are the ultimate signals of who controls the market. And in this case, buyers have taken the wheel. Plus, this candle formed from support, increasing the chances of more upside. 🎯Our first target sits at $1.557.

ASTR | Astar Network

Astar’s Supernova flopped.

 

While Supernova might be good for the protocol overall, it didn’t positively impact ASTR’s price. On the contrary, ASTR fell 16% last week in response to Astar pivoting away from Polkadot. Now, the price has dipped to the $0.04850 support level.

Ideally, we’d want to see ASTR bouncing from this level to tackle $0.05500 as resistance, but we’re not optimistic this time. This was a good short-term pick, but it’s time to focus on other tokens. Besides the ones we’ve presented today, here’s another example👇

RUNE| THORChain (Daily)

RUNE surprised us all by breaking to the upside five days ago. Although our target hasn’t been reached yet ($2), it will most likely be reached in the coming days. 🚨NOTE: Do not wait for $2. We recommend taking profits now! After this successful trade, we’ll have only one viable option. We wait for RUNE to retrace back to $1.67, from where we trade a move to $2 once more. Waiting for the retrace will ensure we optimise our entry point and reduce the risk. Plus, the general trend is bullish, and RUNE has caught a lot of momentum lately, making this play one of the best out there.

SPECIAL MENTION ✨

Here’s an update on one of our most anticipated trades in the past weeks 👇

MKR has been rising relentlessly after finding demand at $980 (white line) a few weeks ago. The asset is up 29% from our entry! 🎉 With the market on the rise and potentially reversing to the upside, it’s safe to assume MKR will have a solid run to the $1,630 - $1,825 resistance region. Securing profits on the way up is recommended!

Cryptonary’s take 🧠

Although the market is ready to reverse to the upside, this week will be macro-oriented. Prices will be volatile, but when all is said and done – there’ll be clarity on where the market is headed. 

While we can’t ignore the possibility of more upside, we should also not mindlessly assume that the bullish price action is the new status quo. There has to be a balance when it comes to risk, and that’s why we remain cautiously optimistic in the short term.

In the meantime, please join our Discord and stay up to date with all changes in the market!

Action points 🎯

1. Trading without proper risk management strategies in place will result in significant losses. Always set a stop loss for all trades to avoid losing more than you can endure.
2. You should stay on the sidelines if you’re unfamiliar with market volatility and how macro events impact prices. Trading activities this week will require the right mix of expertise and experience.
3. Even so, trading this week should also be done carefully. Do not risk more than you can lose, and wait for the market to pick a direction before deciding to take on any risky trades.
4. Got more questions? Hit us up on Discord in the “✍️・traders-pit” channel!

As always, thanks for reading.🙏

Cryptonary out!