Today, we provide the playbook for how we think they'll go and how the markets are potentially going to trade it.
Thirty minutes before the FED Press Conference, the Interest Rate decision is announced along with the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections).
Now, we don't expect a rate hike. But, we do expect the SEP to show that the FED is going to add another 25bps rate cut in there for 2024.
The markets would likely celebrate this as it would be an acceptance amongst the FED that the rate hike cycle is over and that there will be cuts and maybe more cuts next year.
So, risk assets may move up significantly in this first half-hour period before the Press Conference.
The calm before the storm?
However, Powell really should be hawkish in his speech and attempt to walk these markets back (a re-tightening of financial conditions); otherwise, the FED risks inflation rearing up again in the new year.This, they desperately do not want, as if they have to raise rates again this would be terrible for markets and the economy as a whole. Crypto would really struggle in this environment if this were to happen.
We will provide an update following the FED Press Conference so you guys have my breakdown of the result of the meeting and what was said. I will be available in 🧠・cpro-lounge whilst the FED Press Conference is ongoing.
Hopefully, nothing major breaks
Remember this, guys: if Powell is ultra-hawkish today, nothing else matters; our coins will probably go down in the coming weeks/month, particularly if he indicates that they’re not done raising rates, although he is likely to emphasise “higher for longer” and push back on rate cuts.Let's see what we get.
We now have an update to this report here.
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