What's keeping BTC strong at $34K?

TLDR

• Bitcoin holds strong amidst economic surprises and positive Amazon earnings.
• BTC's technical analysis shows resilience below $34,500, defying sell-offs.
• On the 4-hour chart, BTC clings to the low $34,000s, with the potential for a pullback.
• Market signals are mixed, making directional predictions challenging; expect a pullback after a potential push to $36k.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

Technical analysis

BTC is still holding up really nicely despite being beneath the horizontal resistance of $34,500 and having also rejected twice at the $35,000 level. 

Recently, we’ve seen a big sell-off in risk assets like the S&P, but BTC has avoided the sell-off. With the price action we’ve seen in recent days, you have to respect the strength. Yes, some indicators still suggest the market is overheated here, but again, you have to respect the recent price action.

BTC 4hr

The 4-hour chart shows that the low $34,000 is currently holding well. To see a more significant move higher, price would need to get back above $34,500 and likely close several 4-hour candles convincingly above this level. 

Because BTC is so overbought here, it is more likely that a pullback is on the cards. However, if one were to come, we’d expect the $32,600 level to be a local support.  

RSI and funding rates

The daily timeframe for BTC looks really toppy. We think it’s possible price gets another move higher into the $36/$37k area, but we would be surprised to see this and not get a pullback first. 

The RSI still remains phenomenally overbought at 83 on the daily. In bull markets, the RSIs are regularly in overbought territory, but in our opinion, this looks overheated. 

The funding rates remain positive, and price is being driven by Perps, not the Spot market. Perps-driven volume doesn’t support price going meaningfully higher in the near term. Yes, again, we could see a small move to $36k, but for price to go to $40k, big Spot volume/buyers would need to come in. Currently, this doesn’t look to be the case. 

Cryptonary’s take

The positive price action of the past few days, where BTC has been able to hold in and around the $34k area, should be respected. Despite many trading indicators suggesting BTC is heavily overbought here, it can have a slight push higher to $36k. 

It’s important that when new data is given (positive price action over the past few days), we should be nimble with our opinions. But, the market is still very overheated; therefore, we feel there are many contrasting signals here, and we struggle to pick a direction. 

The market should pullback, but positive price action could give us a slight move higher first to $36k before getting a deeper pullback.

Action 

1. We are steering clear of BTC here but will look to add to our long-term bags if price gets back to the $31k/$32k area.