XRP holding key support at $2.00

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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XRP:

Market context

XRP failed to sustain momentum following the Crypto Summit, confirming a "sell the news" reaction that led to a sharp rejection from $2.60 and a retrace toward $2.00. The market has lacked strong bullish catalysts, and liquidity conditions remain tight. However, the softer CPI print could likely trigger a short-term relief bounce, as the markets may like this price. While this could lead to a temporary upside across risk assets, XRP remains structurally weak, and any move higher is more likely to provide a shorting opportunity into resistance rather than a true reversal.

Technical analysis & market mechanics

• XRP is trading within a $2.60 - $2.00 range, with multiple taps on both ends showing clear resistance and support.
• $2.00 is the key structural level, having held strong despite multiple wicks into it (Dec 9, Dec 20, Dec 30, Feb 3, Feb 28, March 11). If this level breaks, it opens the door to $1.20 - $1.00.
• $2.60 remains the major resistance, acting as a rejection point post-summit and historically capping price action throughout December. A move into this zone without follow-through signals weakness.
• The funding Rate was negative (0.015) but has now flattened to 0.0002, meaning shorts have unwound into $2.000, and positioning is neutral again.
• Open Interest (OI) has declined heavily from its peak ($4.5B on Jan 18) to $2.9B, showing reduced leverage and lower market engagement. This drop signals a further lack of risk conviction and potential volatility compression before the next move.
• RSI is neutral, meaning there's no immediate overbought or oversold bias-momentum is currently balanced.
• Breakdown Scenario: If $2.00 is lost, XRP could sell off aggressively into $1.20 - $1.00, where prior liquidity exists. This would also be its first major higher timeframe market structure break.
• There is a build-up of short liquidations heading into the $3.00 and $3.30 price regions, so we will be monitoring this closely and seeing how this develops.
• Sentiment: The market has been shaky, and XRP has held up structurally better than many assets, but the declining OI and neutral funding suggest a lack of conviction to push higher.

• Next Support: $2.0000
• Next Resistance: $2.6000
• Direction: bullish
• Upside Target: $3.0000
• Downside Target: $1.2000

Trade plan: scenario-based play

• If the price reaches $2.60 - $3.00, we will enter shorts with stops at $3.30 and targets at $2.00, then $1.20 - $1.00.
• If $2.00 breaks down, we will wait for rejection at $2.00 as new resistance before shorting into $1.20 - $1.00.
• Risk Management: No immediate trade is waiting for the price to reach the setup zones.
• If $2.00 holds, we avoid shorting aggressively as buyers are still defending support.

Cryptonary's take

XRP remains range-bound between $2.60 - $2.00, and our approach here is scenario-based. Given the CPI print, we expect a short-term bounce across the market, which could push XRP into resistance at $2.60 - $3.00.However, this move should not be mistaken for a breakout-the macrostructure remains bearish, liquidity remains constrained, and we anticipate that any push higher will present a strong shorting opportunity rather than a continuation play.

If the price reaches the $2.60 - $3.00 zone, we will look to enter short positions, particularly if funding turns positive and RSI moves into overbought territory. If, instead, $2.00 gives way before any bounce, we shift focus to shorting a potential retest of $2.00 as resistance, targeting $1.20 - $1.00 as the next major downside move.

We will continue monitoring funding, open interest, and sentiment shifts to refine our positioning, but overall, we anticipate XRP will trade higher in the short term before ultimately rolling over into deeper downside.