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Market Direction

XRP’s breakout lacks conviction

Updated: Apr 22, 2025
Published: Apr 16, 2025
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XRP’s price is showing weak breakout strength, with critical support at $1.78. A breakdown below it confirms bearish continuation, with downside targets near $1.50-$1.30. Caution is needed in positioning.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.


Technical analysis & market mechanics

  • XRP remains inside a broader bearish channel despite a recent short-term breakout.
  • XRP is still trading relatively high in its context and has the potential for a large move lower
  • $2.23 is the first local resistance - price is reacting here.
  • $2.35, $2.48, and $2.58 are major resistance levels from previous breakdowns. These levels are where we would layer our short positions
  • $2.73 is the final extension - potential liquidity grab level before a reversal.
  • These resistance levels form a scaling zone for short exposure, not a full-size entry point.
  • Shorts should be layered gradually into strength as price moves through the resistance block.
  • $2.00 is local support - may hold short term but lacks structural conviction.
  • $1.78 is key major support - a break confirms the shift toward downside continuation.
  • $1.50-$1.30 is the high-probability target zone on breakdown.
  • RSI is near 50 - neutral, with room for price to push higher.
  • The current rally lacks organic momentum - likely driven by short-term positioning, not sustained demand.
  • Strategy: use low-margin, isolated shorts, manage risk via liquidation levels, and avoid oversized exposure.
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  • Next Support: $2.00
  • Next Resistance: $2.23
  • Direction: Bullish
  • Upside Target: $2.58
  • Downside Target: $1.50

Cryptonary's take

XRP is setting up as a high-conviction short, but it requires patience and precision. The recent breakout lacks strength, and the price continues to trade inside a bearish channel with clear overhead resistance. We're shorting into $2.23 to $2.73, scaling in lightly and isolating each position. No aggressive sizing - this is a slow bleed setup where we let price come to us. A break below $1.78 confirms the rollover, with downside targets at $1.50-$1.30. RSI supports a final push higher, which only strengthens our entry zones. This is a strategy trade - not a snipe - and should be treated with layered sizing, wide invalidation, and tactical patience.

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