TLDR 📃

• Bitcoin's rally to $30,000 halts, potentially dropping to $24,250 or even $20,000. New lows? Unlikely (sorry, bears). It's speculators' buzz causing this volatility – not cool.
• Mega-whales holding 10,000+ BTC remain calm observers, signalling confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.
• The global economy's in a pickle. Time for alternatives to failing fiat currencies? Singapore's recent announcement legalises buying and selling Bitcoin without a license.
• Bitcoin Ordinals inscriptions smash records, but marketplace volumes? Bit of a damp squib.
• We nailed the $20,000 to $30,000 run-up – reckon we'll be spot on about this drop too?

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your responsibility and yours only.

Bitcoin is the way 🧭

People are flooding the streets of Argentina as inflation skyrockets to a whopping 104% and poverty levels reach 40%. But it's not just Argentina – Zimbabwe, Turkey, Lebanon, and Venezuela already faced similar issues. In Venezuela, cash is discarded in the streets – it's barely worth the paper it's printed on.

Rising poverty isn't due to lower productivity, but to salaries that just don't stretch far enough. The fiat currency crisis is real, and it's spreading fast.

In tough times, folks need a reliable asset. The dollar used to be the go-to, but with recent jabs from the Chinese Yuan, people are having second thoughts. Enter gold, silver, and Bitcoin – the new lifesavers. Sure, the dollar value of 1 BTC matters to investors and traders today, but there's a bigger mission at hand – protecting wealth from the crumbling fiat system.

Meanwhile, Singapore, a haven for the ultra-rich, announces it's officially legal to buy and sell Bitcoin without a license. A hint for the wealthy to ditch their fiat currencies, perhaps?

Let's dive in to the USD price of BTC and see where it's headed after the impressive $20,000 to $30,000 run – which, by the way, we totally called!

BTC price analysis 📉

What happened?

In January 2023, Bitcoin's market structure switched from bearish (lower lows and lower highs) to bullish (higher highs and higher lows), sending prices skyrocketing by a smashing +100% in just a few months. We saw it, called it, and bought it with a target at $30,000 – which we also nailed.

Last week, Bitcoin broke through $30,000, turning resistance into support. If maintained, this could have spurred another rally up to $42,000. But alas, it wasn't meant to be. Bitcoin slipped back under support, forming a bearish engulfing candle – the most ominous candlestick of them all.

What’s next?

Time for a new game plan! Bitcoin could drop to $24,250, and even $20,000 if the bulls don't step up. We'll keep a close eye on the price and update you weekly. For now, $24,250 is the next stop.

Just a heads up – a decline doesn't mean Bitcoin will plummet to $10,000. The bottom's already in at $15,500 post-FTX collapse. It'd take something worse than the 3AC/Celsius/FTX disaster to go lower, and if that happens, we might as well pack up and leave the industry!

Futures are f*cking this market 🤯

Perpetual futures, a crypto favourite among speculators, help us gauge market hype based on their behaviour. We're focusing on the funding rate today – the payments exchanged between those betting on price rises (longs) and falls (shorts) in perpetual futures contracts.

Typically, when the market dips, overconfident bulls back down, closing positions or opening shorts, causing the funding rate to decrease – sometimes even dropping below 0%, quite an anomaly. But today's funding rate remains positive despite the downturn, meaning speculators are in for a harsh reality check as the dip continues to deepen and their confidence wavers.

Enough of the dumb money, let’s look at what the smart money’s doing.

Smart money 💵

Mega-whales holding 10,000+ BTC (worth $270M+) have remained mere observers since the beginning of the year. Their ranks grew, especially around FTX's collapse, but have held steady since.

These wealthy individuals are usually quite savvy. They likely believe the bottom was set at $15,500 in November 2022. They aren't interested in trading short-term price fluctuations. They see these movements as trivial in the bigger picture.

We've discussed both the speculators' actions and the composed approach of the mega-whales – so, which camp do you belong to? Comment below!

Ordinals are the only gainers? 🖼️

[caption id="attachment_271353" align="aligncenter" width="1800"] Bitcoin Ordinals inscriptions over time. Source: Dune.com (dgtl_assets).[/caption]

Let’s get into the only number reaching new highs now. 👇🏼

Ordinals inscriptions (mints) are soaring with a new daily high of over 150,000!

You’re wondering if this means Bitcoin NFTs are a fantastic investment, right? Well, even though heaps of new NFTs are being minted, marketplace volumes are pretty much lifeless. So it seems like they might not be the hot investment we'd hoped for. At least, not for now.

Cryptonary’s take 🧠

The bottom line is that Bitcoin experienced a rapid rise to $30,000 before facing potential drops to $24,250 or $20,000.

Despite this, its long-term outlook remains positive as an alternative to failing fiat currencies, supported by Singapore's recent legalisation of Bitcoin transactions. Speculators contribute to short-term volatility while mega-whales stay calm, signalling confidence in Bitcoin's future.

Keep an eye on Bitcoin's progress and exercise caution in the ever-evolving crypto landscape.

As always, thank you for reading. 🙏🏼