• What, another one?! America’s 14th-largest bank is collapsing - and yes, that strengthens BTC’s case.
• Balance on exchanges and overall profit-taking are on the rise. Are these bear footprints we see?
• BTC’s price is headed to $24,250 unless bulls step in and reclaim $30,000.
• Ordinals (BTC NFTs) numbers look great but they’re fishy - and we can tell you why.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your responsibility and yours only.

Financial fumble 💱

It's actually a sh*t stock, not a sh*tcoin. You're looking at the stock price of First Republic Bank of San Francisco, California. With over $200B in assets, it’s the 14th-largest bank in the US. Crazy, right?

In the past two months we've seen the collapse of Credit Suisse, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and now First Republic.

The case for Bitcoin has never been clearer. If you don’t own some BTC then you’re shooting yourself in the foot. Just saying.

Now, just because things are looking bright in the medium- to long-term, that doesn’t mean the short term is all cherry cola and bubblegum. Let’s explore some metrics.

Balance on exchanges ⚖️

Balance on exchanges is the amount of crypto sitting on trading platforms. 

A rising balance is a bearish sign. It means the market is pessimistic and prices might fall. That's because more crypto on exchanges usually means more people are selling.

If the balance drops, that’s a good sign. It means people are holding onto their assets because they expect prices to go up. Easy, right?

Now, in April we saw a 30,350 BTC ($850M) increase on exchanges. It's not the end of the world, but it's worth noting - and it suggests a slowdown in buying and even an increase in profit-taking.

State of the profits 💲

Coins are heading to exchanges, and the market isn't as bullish as it was earlier this year. Let's check out the "profit situation" with these two cool on-chain metrics:

1. Realised profits: This metric shows the overall profit made by Bitcoin holders when they sell their coins. In simple terms, it's the difference between the buying price and selling price of Bitcoin for all transactions. When this number is high, it means people are cashing in on their gains, which can provide insights into market sentiment.
2. NUPL (net unrealised profit/loss): This metric gives us a snapshot of market sentiment by comparing the unrealised gains and losses of all Bitcoin holders. It's calculated by taking the difference between the current value of all coins and their initial purchase price. A positive NUPL means that most holders are in profit, which can signal bullish market sentiment. A negative NUPL indicates that many holders are at a loss, suggesting a bearish sentiment.

Both metrics help us understand how people feel about the market and the overall performance of Bitcoin.

Realised profits

Lately, there's been an increase in realised BTC profits - a measure of overall profit when Bitcoin holders sell their coins. It's not a huge deal, but it’s worth mentioning.

NUPL

Honestly, today's buying opportunity isn't as attractive as it was at the beginning of the year. We were super bullish in January, but things have changed, and the opportunity isn't as juicy.

Sentiment is in the "optimism/anxiety" zone, sort of a limbo space. We think the bottom is set at $15,500 unless something worse than the FTX collapse occurs (unlikely).

As early buyers, we're holding on and staying positive. But if we were buying now, we'd use a different approach, like slowly dollar-cost averaging and keeping cash on hand for potential dips.

Price analysis 📉

We’ll keep the analysis simple, short, and sweet.

Two weeks ago, BTC had a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe. This usually signals a local top in a rally. We've also seen a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish, with a lower low and now possibly a lower high.

Given these factors, we expect to see a drop to $24,250 soon. The only thing that can help bulls continue the rally without a pullback is if BTC reclaims $30,000.

Ordinals: Don’t trust the data 🖼️

We usually like data. But sometimes there’s more to the story.

We’re seeing a significant increase in Ordinals volumes and new mints (inscriptions). We’re even setting all-time highs.

[caption id="attachment_272174" align="aligncenter" width="1800"] Ordinals inscriptions by type.[/caption]

Marketplace volumes show a similar trend.

[caption id="attachment_272175" align="aligncenter" width="1800"] Volume by marketplace.[/caption]

But digging deeper, we found something fishy:

1. Most new mints (inscriptions) are text, not images. That’s unusual for an NFT market.
2. Most of the volume comes from a new exchange called "UniSAT".

It turns out that UniSAT is running a competition that allows people to earn points, hoping to qualify for an airdrop. The more text inscriptions, the more points. So these numbers aren't bullish for BTC; they're just short-term, incentive-driven hype.

Cryptonary’s take 🧠

Let's wrap up this Bitcoin Digest! Overall, the Bitcoin situation is a mixed bag. We've seen major financial institutions collapsing left and right, which is pretty crazy. That makes the case for Bitcoin stronger and clearer. But the short-term outlook is not so rosy.

The balance on exchanges has gone up, which usually means more people are selling and less optimistic about the market. Plus, realised profits and NUPL suggest that sentiment is stuck in limbo with the bottom set at $15,500. And let's not forget the price analysis, which indicates that a drop to $24,250 is likely unless BTC reclaims $30,000.

If you're already an early buyer, it might be worth holding on and staying positive. But if you're looking to buy in now, it's probably best to take it slow and dollar-cost average while keeping some cash on hand for potential dips.