Ready? Let's plunge in!

TLDR 📃

• Forget the famous 'two pizzas for 10,000 BTC', the first real-world Bitcoin transaction might just be a lesser-known 500 BTC exchange for an image.
• New token standards like BRC-20, SRC-20, and ORC-20 have ignited a creative wildfire and a Bitcoin memecoin craze. But hold up, devs are eyeing to shut some down.
• Bitcoin seems set on a slippery slope towards $24,250. Chances of nosediving below $15,500 are negligible, and the smart money has already started stocking up.
• Don't be swayed by short-term price swings; keep your eyes on the long-term vision. We've shared ours below 👀

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make is your full responsibility.

Bitcoin was first used to buy pictures in 2010? 🖼️

The title of the first real-world Bitcoin transaction is often bestowed upon the infamous "Two pizzas for 10,000 BTC" event on May 22nd, 2010. But hold on, there's a twist in the tale!

In fact, a lesser-known transaction might just steal the pizza's thunder. Back in February 2010, a BitcoinTalk user, "Sabunir", reportedly put a picture up for sale for a cool 500 BTC ($1 at the time).

The thread leaves us hanging on whether the deal was sealed, but one thing's clear: a 500 BTC transaction did find its way into Sabunir's wallet. If this was payment for the picture, it would take the crown as the "first real-world purchase made with BTC" on February 24th, 2010.

Not quite an NFT - the image wasn't stored on-chain - but it's a close call and cool story…

Speaking of Bitcoin, NFTs and memecoins by extension.

Devs will shut down the new Bitcoin ecosystem? 🌐

In February, we covered the emergence of "Bitcoin NFTs" or Ordinals. These are unique labels for each satoshi (the tiniest piece of Bitcoin), and the 2021 Taproot Upgrade let us attach NFTs to specific satoshis on the Bitcoin blockchain.

This opened a world of creativity, sparking new token standards and a Bitcoin memecoin frenzy - enter BRC-20! Let's break down the three hottest newbies:

1. BRC-20: Bitcoin's answer to Ethereum's ERC-20, kicked off in March 2023. BRC-20 tokens give a unique serial number to each satoshi, making token creation and transfer a breeze.
2. SRC-20: Kind of like BRC-20, but it keeps transaction data on the blockchain forever, which does limits how much data it can handle.
3. ORC-20: A version of BRC-20, but more versatile. It can handle more formats and offers extra options for each transaction.

Wondering how these standards are performing? Check out the transaction percentage chart below ⤵️

[caption id="attachment_273081" align="aligncenter" width="1800"] Volume market share by token type on Bitcoin[/caption]

BRC-20 has been a star performer, quickly gaining market share, and ORC-20s seem to be following suit. But can they go the distance?

Now, whether Bitcoin having its own ecosystem is a blessing or a curse, well, that's up for debate. We've already shared our thoughts - spoiler alert: we're not fans. And it seems developers are getting riled up too. Bitcoin developer Ali Sherief recently suggested banning spam transactions like BRC-20 to avoid potential congestion that could turn users away from Bitcoin.

This news led to a slowdown in growth, overall Ordinals volumes is down a lot. Literally looks like Burj Khalifa with that rise and drop.

[caption id="attachment_273080" align="aligncenter" width="1800"] Volume by marketplace[/caption]

Okay, now that we’ve covered the latest happenings in the Bitcoin Ecosystem, what’s up with BTC?

Where will BTC go to next? 📉

Short answer: down.

BTC continues to set lower lows and the road to $24,250 is becoming much clearer to the masses. Now of course, it can suddenly change courses, reclaim $30,000 and invalidate our downside thesis but we think that’s quite unlikely.

Hitting $24,250 is just the start. We'll then be eyeballing trade volumes to see if a further slide to $20,000 is on the cards, or if we'll see a bottom-out between $24,000-$25,000.

We're pretty sure Bitcoin won't tumble below $15,500, barring any major bad news. The smart money seems to agree, snapping up Bitcoin on the dip. Just yesterday, there was a surge in Bitcoin being taken off exchanges, the first since January. A hefty 17,769 BTC ($480M+) was moved off, which is a good sign. Less Bitcoin on exchanges means less to buy, and mass withdrawals usually mean people are buying to hold for the long haul.

Finally, whether Bitcoin hits $20,000, $30,000, or even $35,000, that's just small potatoes in the bigger picture. The real question: where to next?

The Bitcoin path 🟠

You've probably found yourself asking, "Where is Bitcoin heading in the long run?" We're always giving you the latest scoops on the short-term ups and downs, and maybe even a yearly forecast. But we bet you're itching to know, "What's the grand plan?"

Well, today's your lucky day. We're pulling back the curtain to reveal our straightforward Bitcoin prediction, neatly marked out on a price chart.

No extra words are needed.

Cryptonary’s take 🧠

What a ride it's been, delving into the vibrant saga of Bitcoin! We've retraced its steps from the first tangible transaction (which might have been an NFT!) to the recent flurry of Bitcoin NFTs. Then there's the buzz around new token standards like BRC-20, SRC-20, and ORC-20. Intriguing, yes, but Bitcoin developers caution that these aren't without potential pitfalls.

Currently, Bitcoin's weather forecast shows a bit of a storm brewing, with projections hinting at a dip to just over $24,000.

Yet, it's not all dark clouds on the horizon. The financial whizz kids seem to have placed their long-term bets on Bitcoin, as evidenced by a significant stash of the cryptocurrency being withdrawn from exchanges. They're not letting short-term turbulence cloud their view of the grand scheme of things. In spite of any hiccups, Bitcoin's future remains as radiant as ever.

As always, thank you for reading.