Market Digests

Ripple Digest: Under the SEC's shadow, life goes on

Updated: Jul 30, 2024

Published: Apr 29, 2023

According to Ripple’s Q1 2023 XRP Markets Report, XRP sales total $361.06M since the beginning of the year. That’s a 37% increase over Q4 2022.

TLDR 📃

The SEC v. Ripple court case continues to cast a shadow on Ripple’s fortunes as it highlights a critical lack of clarity in US crypto regs.
Crypto lawyer John Deaton predicts a positive ruling, saying it’ll mark the most significant non-fraud enforcement action by the SEC since 1946.
XRP’s quarterly report shows a 46% increase in average daily volume on centralised exchanges, from $698M to $1B.
Ripple Labs has launched a 12-week accelerator program to stimulate innovation on the XRP Ledger blockchain.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your responsibility and yours only.

Ripple is powering on ⚡

Put the court case aside and Ripple has had a pretty good first quarter.

Much of this growth can be attributed to retail investors’ use of Ripple's on-demand liquidity partners - primarily centralised exchanges - to take advantage of XRP volatility. Average daily volume on centralised exchanges grew by 46% to $1B during Q1 compared to the volume on decentralised exchanges, which grew by 34% to $115M.

SEC v. Ripple ⚖️

Arguments are winding down, and experts predict a ruling in the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s case in May or June.

Independent crypto lawyer John Deaton says the case hinges on whether XRP is a security and predicts a positive outcome for Ripple. Attorney James Filan and self-proclaimed XRP CEO Ashley Prosper speculate that the case will be concluded by May or June in Ripple’s favour. Ripple Labs attorney Stuart Aldertoy has characterised the SEC’s anti-crypto agenda as gross ineptitude.

Perhaps the most likely result of the trial is that more crypto firms will look to relocate their operations to countries that offer regulatory clarity.

The race for global adoption 🌍

Ripple’s blockchain, XRPL, has shown a steep rise in development activity since our last digest. The Ripple Labs team is promoting a 12-week accelerator program that comes with a $50K grant.

Coingate’s latest integration with BinancePay is a promising development for XRP. It allows merchants and shoppers in more than 70 countries to settle invoices in BTC, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies. Currently there is no charge on these transactions, but by the end of Q3 a 0.03% fee will be attached.

An outcry from the XRP community followed Ripple’s exclusion of XRP from the basket of assets in its latest product. The Ripple Liquidity Hub is an enterprise-facing liquidity pool that offers an easy gateway between fiat and crypto. XRP was not listed among supported assets like USD, BTC, ETH, ETC, and BCH - possibly because of the ongoing legal battle with the SEC.

Price analysis: Breakout soon 💵

XRP is currently ranging between $0.31 - $0.55 and about to test the mid-level at $0.425. The recent price drop to $0.44 correlates with broader market (read BTC) sentiments, and XRP promptly retraced to test $0.47.

Within the same period, XRP volume skyrocketed to $2B, indicating that traders were actively participating in the volatile prices. Now that figure is closer to $1.2B and XRP’s market cap hovers at $24.2M.

Now it’s a waiting game. XRP can break from the range to the upside (above $0.55) or downside (under $0.31). The key is to hope $0.425 holds, because broader market conditions suggest a break at this time would send XRP to $0.31 and below.

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Cryptonary’s take 🧠

XRP holders are no strangers to volatility. The current price is $0.45, and it appears to have capped at $0.51. If momentum does not improve, XRP is primed for lower regions to $0.31. Bears are dominating the overall crypto market and caution is essential. Only "if" BTC regains momentum to settle above $30,000 will the altcoin market challenge resistance levels.

The good news for XRP holders is the high confidence in the Ripple vs SEC outcome. Even if the overall market is bearish, the news will be enough to send XRP to $0.55 even if only for a day. For a breakout though, BTC's momentum is needed.

Our advice: Keep expectations realistic. XRP’s price is ranging in the [$0.31-$0.55] range. Until a clear breakout happens, don't jump the gun and focus on the range itself. We’re also keeping an eye on the macro markets for more definitive tells.

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