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Whether we see bullish price action at the time, or it is delayed until macro improves, we are certain it creates a big bull catalyst for Ethereum.
Reasons the merge has been referred to as Ethereum’s triple halving:
- Inflation drops by 10x, from 4.3% per year to 0.4% per year. Less for miners (now stakers and node operators) to sell, and due to the almost 0 electricity use in proof of stake consensus, there is no need to sell to cover costs.
- EIP-1559 burning mechanism actually reduces the supply at very high traffic times. The merge narrative is likely to increase Ethereum traffic and could initiate burning. Regardless, in the next bull run, we expect traffic to increase to the required level.
- Supply shock, as the ETH staked in the ETH2.0 contract doesn't become available immediately. ETH2.0 staking won’t begin to unlock for an estimated 12 months after the merge, and even then, there will be a queue. If everyone wanted to unlock their staking straight away, it’s estimated the queue would take 1.5 years for this to actually happen (after the estimated 12 months from the merge, so 2.5 years in total).
Many believe that this could be a catalyst for a bull market. We are cautious with this thought process, and are all too aware that the only thing that truly matters right now is the macroeconomic environment (bull markets can’t happen in a global macroeconomic bear market).
However, we are long term Ethereum bulls, and will accumulate through the bear market, ready for a huge leg up in the next bull run!
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