So, what’s going on this week?
Multiple indicators are flashing bullish signs, layer-2s continue to gain traction (especially Arbitrum) and smart money is on a buying spree!
TLDR
- ~3M ETH burned thanks to EIP1559: Bullish
- ETH Price Structure: Bullish
- Whales Buying en masse: Bullish
- ~$500M added to Layer-2s
- Arbitrum users at ATH awaiting the airdrop
- NFT volumes at new highs thanks to the BLUR airdrop
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Disclaimer: This is not financial nor investment advice. You are fully and solely responsible for any capital-related decisions you make.
The State of ETH
Supply Change
Since August 2021, EIP1559 has been around and close to 3 million ETH have been burned up. The move to Proof-of-Stake also helped lower the supply a lot. If Ethereum was still working on Proof-of-Work, the supply would have grown by 1.78 million ETH. Instead, it dropped by 25,000 ETH.
Price Action
Last week, we saw a significant decline of 14.5% in just a few days, causing many to doubt Ethereum (ETH) and its performance, leading to second-guessing the trend. Fortunately, if you are a Cryptonary follower, you would have been relieved to know that the price was about to reverse and push higher again.
This was tweeted right at the lows 👇🏼
Run it back turbo 💨
— Cryptonary (@cryptonary) February 10, 2023
ETH has set a new record high, and market structure remains bullish. Our first target in this bear market rally is for it to reach $2,200.
Futures’ Market Health
Traders remain in disbelief of this rally, convinced that this rally is non-sustainable. We can see this through the decreasing open interest on this latest move up.
We won’t bore you with definitions but this means that many traders have been caught on the wrong side of the market in the last 24-48 hours leading them to close their short positions. Disbelief acts as fuel to the market, in order to close a short, a trader effectively places a buy order of equal size to do so. This is known as a “short-squeeze”.
TLDR: Bullish.
Smart Money
ETH whales have been on a buying spree over the past six days. Both addresses with 1,000 ETH and 10,000 ETH have seen a sharp increase.1,000 ETH Wallet Count
10,000 ETH Wallet Count
Ask yourself a simple question: If the whales are buying, do you want to be selling?
Exchanges Balance
The blue line in this graph shows a big fall in the last few days. That's because $1.2 billion (705,000 ETH) has been taken away from places like Binance and Coinbase. When there's less of something and more people want it, the price goes up. We all know how supply and demand works.
Ethereum Ecosystem
Decentralised Finance | DeFi
DeFi has remained relatively flat (+0.16%) since the last digest. However, we have seen some interesting capital injections across a few DeFi companies:
- Lido Finance (+$380M): Whales have been buying, so an increased amount of ETH staked via Lido is to be expected.
- MakerDAO (+$210M): MakerDAO is the issuer of the decentralized stablecoin DAI. This increase is understandable, given the recent adversarial move from the SEC against the centralized stablecoin BUSD.
Layer-2s
Layer-2s have seen a decent injection of capital in the past two weeks, with $473M added (+8.4%).
The most interesting fundamental development is that Arbitrum has reached an all-time high (ATH) in active users, as shown in the chart below 👇🏼
Arbitrum Daily Active Users | Source: TokenTerminal
There are two main reasons for the current activity:
- Many protocols are being built, so there is a lot to explore and experiment with.
- People are expecting an ARBI airdrop soon and are farming it.
ZKSync recently announced their "ZKSync Era" mainnet, the final stage before launching the mainnet. This is likely to attract more users to ZKSync, similar to the current surge in Arbitrum's user base.
The wait is over.
All aboard zkSync Era∎ Mainnet!Today, Ethereum's first zkEVM is:
• Opening mainnet to builders 🥳 • Adopting a brand new name 🎈 • Open-sourcing its entire codebase 🎆https://t.co/PoZeliPU8t
1/8
— zkSync ∎ (@zksync) February 16, 2023
NFTs
We have seen an exceptional increase in daily volumes in the last day. This can be attributed to Blur airdropping their token to users. In reality, NFT airdrops are often sold to purchase additional NFTs, which contributes to these volume spikes.
On another note, OpenSea has a limited time frame to drop their token before they risk losing market share permanently.
Cryptonary’s Take | Conclusion
Whales are accumulating, supply is drying up on exchanges, the price structure is bullish, and usage in the ecosystem is increasing. All signs point to ETH reaching $2,200 soon, and that's just the beginning.Stay tuned for future targets 🎯
As always, thank you for reading 🙏🏼
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