Cryptonary's 2026 Crypto Market Outlook
We’re starting 2026 with something special. This report brings together the lessons and outlook of the entire Cryptonary team, shaped by a year of hard-earned insights across macro, market structure, and fundamentals. If there’s one report you read today, this is it. Let’s dive in...
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results
Executive Summary
2025 was brutal. One of the most volatile years crypto has ever seen. At the start of the year, if you'd told anyone in this space that Gold would be approaching $4,500, the consensus on Bitcoin would've been mid six figures. Instead, we're sitting at $92,000, down 27% from highs.So where does that leave us heading into 2026?
The market is at a tipping point. The doomsayers are calling for a bear market inspired by the 4-year cycle. Others are convinced we're about to go parabolic. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between.
We think 2026 has the potential to be one of the most significant years in crypto history. Regulatory clarity is accelerating while liquidity conditions are shifting. Institutional infrastructure has matured in ways that weren't true even 12 months ago.
But the path won't be clean.
Q1 and Q2 will be choppy, volatile, and unforgiving for those poorly positioned. Q3 and Q4 is where we expect the real move. The implication is simple: positioning is everything. The returns in the second half won't matter if you've been shaken out in the first.
In this report, we share our 2026 framework: what we expect, why we expect it, and how we're approaching it. We also look back at 2025 as a case study: what we got right, what we didn't, and what that reveals about how we think.
This year, we're also expanding our lens beyond native crypto. Gold had its best year in over four decades. Silver hit all-time highs. Stocks outperformed crypto.
As always, our subscribers get a front-row seat. We're not here to hand you a to-do list, we're here to help you think clearly. How you interpret and apply this information could help you make more informed decisions in the new year.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
2025 Scorecard + Performance Review- From Broad Exposure to Selectivity
- Key Sectors & Rotations in 2025
- Incentive and Airdrop Strategies
- What Our Subscribers Missed in 2025
- Methodology to Macro
- The Fed’s in Pause Mode
- Inflation is Coming Down
- The Labour Market is Weakening
- Range Compression
- Patience Will Pay Dividends in 2026
- How We Think About Regimes
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Solana (SOL)
- Hyperliquid (HYPE)
- Key takeaways
- Bitcoin Dominance & Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance
- Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance
- ETH/BTC: 12-month map and daily structure
- TOTAL3 (excluding BTC, ETH, Stablecoins)
- Bitcoin vs Gold: Rotation Timing And What It Implies
- Majors: BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE
- Perps and Prediction Markets
- Stablecoins and RWAs
- Privacy: Monero/Zcash vs Ethereum/Solana
- Memecoins: The Asymmetric Bet Revisited
- Why We've Earned the Right to This View
- Our Core Thesis
- Memecoins Are the Onboarding Funnel for Crypto
- Attention Is the Underlying Asset
- Zero Duration Risk in an Uncertain World
- Timing the Window
- The Honest Conclusion
- Key Takeaways
- Intentional Exposure and Liquidity
- Operational Risk, Volatility Budgeting, and Position Sizing
- Portfolio Structure at Scale
- Regime Reality and Investor Behaviour
Enjoy!
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Our track record speaks for itself
With over 2.4M tokens and widespread misinformation in crypto, we cut through the noise and consistently find winning assets.
Our track record speaks for itself
With over 2.4M tokens and widespread misinformation in crypto, we cut
through the noise and consistently find winning assets.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I trust Cryptonary's calls?
Yes. We've consistently identified winners across multiple cycles. Bitcoin under $1,000, Ethereum under $70, Solana under $10, WIF from $0.003 to $5, PopCat from $0.004 to $2, SPX blasting past $1.70, and our latest pick has already 200X'd since June 2025. Everything is timestamped and public record.
Do I need to be an experienced trader or investor to benefit?
No. When we founded Cryptonary in 2017 the market was new to everyone. We intentionally created content that was easy to understand and actionable. That foundational principle is the crux of Cryptonary. Taking complex ideas and opportunities and presenting them in a way a 10 year old could understand.
What makes Cryptonary different from free crypto content on YouTube or Twitter?
Signal vs noise. We filter out 99.9% of garbage projects, provide data backed analysis, and have a proven track record of finding winners. Not to mention since Cryptonary's inception in 2017 we have never taken investment, sponsorship or partnership. Compare this to pretty much everyone else, no track record, and a long list of partnerships that cloud judgements.
Why is there no trial or refund policy?
We share highly sensitive, time-critical research. Once it's out, it can't be "returned." That's why membership is annual only. Crypto success takes time and commitment. If someone is not willing to invest 12 months into their future, there is no place for them at Cryptonary.
Do I get direct access to the Cryptonary team?
Yes. You will have 24/7 to the team that bought you BTC at $1,000, ETH at $70, and SOL at $10. Through our community chats, live Q&As, and member only channels, you can ask questions and interact directly with the team. Our team has over 50 years of combined experience which you can tap into every single day.
How often is content updated?
Daily. We provide real-time updates, weekly reports, emergency alerts, and live Q&As when the markets move fast. In crypto, the market moves fast, in Cryptonary, we move faster.
How does the 3X Value Guarantee work?
We stand behind the value of our research. If the documented upside from our published research during your 12-month membership does not exceed three times (3X) the annual subscription cost, you can request a full refund. Historical context: In every completed market cycle since 2017, cumulative documented upside has exceeded 10X this threshold.
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