A thesis on how DogWifHat (WIF) gets to $100

This is the Memecoin Supercycle; love them or hate them, memes are the stars of this show. And of all the memecoins in the market, WIF has established itself as the crown jewel. 

We identified WIF as a top winner back in December, and our call to invest at an average entry price of $0.003 has resulted in an astonishing 85,000%+ return, equating to a whopping 860x increase since our initial entries.

If you didn't quite believe in memes in December 2023 when we started the gospel of WIF, or if you are new to Cryptonary or memes, it is easy to feel you've missed the boat. While that is rational, if we've learned anything about memes, this is the arena of irrational optimism. 

If WIF were to replicate DOGE's success, it could reach a price of $100 per coin – another 56x or at least 5000% upside ahead. But how is this even remotely possible? 

Well, let's dive in!

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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A quick recap on WIF

What is WIF?

It is "literally just a dog wif a hat." 

That's it! No secret sauce! No special tech! No team! No roadmap!

It makes no promises. It WON'T advance the frontiers of civilisation; it CAN'T activate a paradigm shift at the intersection of finance and technology; it is NOT a next-gen anything. 

It is just a dog wearing a hat!

But let's get serious!

Simply put, WIF is a memecoin. 

Memecoins are a type of speculative asset that gained significant attention during the 2013 bull run with the arrival of DOGE. They got super popular during the 2017 bull run, with the likes of Shiba, Floki, and Pepe getting into the limelight. You can read up about the origin of memes in our Introduction to the Memecoin Supercycle.

Understanding the WIF meme

WIF is a dog-inspired memecoin, similar to Dogecoin (DOGE). There has been a profound relationship between humans and dogs for thousands of years, rooted in companionship, loyalty, and shared experiences. 

Dogs have evolved from wild animals into our closest companions, offering unconditional love, protection, and a sense of belonging. This bond transcends time and culture, and it's no surprise that dog-themed memecoins tap into this primal connection.

These dog-themed memecoins create a sense of fun, community, and shared identity among holders by evoking the deep emotional ties we share with our canine friends. WIF, with its playful and endearing image of a dog wearing a hat, is a reflection of the simple joys and whimsical moments that dogs bring into our lives. 

In a world increasingly dominated by technology and complexity, WIF reminds us that sometimes, the most valuable things are those that bring a smile to our faces and connect us with others in the most human of ways.

Again, WIF is a joke but a valuable joke nonetheless.  

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The bullish case for WIF

WIF is one of our best-performing memes for the 2024/2025 cycle and it is uniquely positioned to continue to outperform the rest of the market as the bull run continues.

• Market potential 

WIF (DogWifHat) stands out as one of the few organic memecoins in the market that has successfully achieved what many refer to as "escape velocity." This means has reached a level of growth and independence, making continued success likely without constant external support. 

The price action of WIF further underscores its appeal. Despite experiencing multiple sharp corrections where it lost over 80% of its value, WIF has consistently demonstrated a strong ability to recover and quickly reach new all-time highs. This relative stability had made WIF widely regarded as the safest option with the maximum upside potential, making it a prime candidate for capitalising on the anticipated memecoin supercycle.

And that's the opportunity – retail is coming!

The appeal of memecoins like WIF is a function of their simplicity and accessibility, making them particularly attractive to retail investors. These investors find memecoins easy to understand, engage with, buy, and hold. Let's be frank; when new people come into crypto, most of them aren't typically coming because of the technology. They usually come with the expectation of making money.

Understanding hard-core concepts like liquid staking, scaling solutions, and zero-knowledge technology is just too much work for such people. But when you talk about what retail participants can intuitively "get"—well, the dog just has a hat! 

• The Solana factor

The market performance has been strong within the Solana ecosystem, where WIF resides, and WIF has emerged as the leading memecoin.

 The best part is that Solana positions itself as the blockchain for the masses. When the masses come to Solana and want an asset that they can easily understand, WIF takes the top spot. This synergy between WIF and Solana could lead to increased adoption and usage, driving the coin's value upward. WIF distinguishes itself as one of the strongest meme coins in this cycle. Its community-driven approach and the sheer number of active holders contribute to its unique appeal. 

The current market dynamics also favour WIF. The memecoin supercycle has generated significant investor interest, with many looking for the next big opportunity. With its strong community, strategic position within the Solana ecosystem, and viral potential, WIF is well-placed to attract these investors.

Its network effects are robust, drawing recognition and support from diverse sources, including crypto-specific communities, venture capitalists, hedge funds, and entities from traditional financial markets.

• A dog without equals

Unlike many other memecoins, WIF has experienced organic growth from day one. This sets it apart in a market often driven by hype and short-term speculation. The lack of insider control and the wide distribution of WIF across over 180,000 unique wallets underscore its genuinely decentralised distribution. 

This distribution ensures that the supply is owned by the community, not manipulated by scammy influencers or celebrities looking to make a quick profit.

WIF's growth trajectory and community-centric approach have earned it the status of a blue-chip meme coin in the crypto space. Despite its memecoin status, It is no longer a high-risk investment but one of the safest memecoins in the market to capitalise on memecoin supercycle. The narrative strongly favours memecoins over fundamentally strong altcoins in the current crypto cycle.

While many altcoins are built on strong fundamentals and technological advancements, the current market sentiment leans towards memecoins. 

This cycle's preference for memecoins over fundamentally strong altcoins underscores the importance of community and narrative in driving value. 

As a result, WIF has eaten a lot of capital and liquidity from other altcoins' market cap, outperforming even the best altcoins this cycle so far. We expect this trend to continue.

But the most important factor of all is that the dog has a hat.

WIF is not a blind gamble

As we've said times before, the argument that memecoins lack fundamentals is not entirely true – they have fundamentals, but the fundamentals are just different from the ones you use for traditional assets. Here are some of WIF's incredible fundamentals.

• Holder count

To be fair, WIF has established itself as a top dog, and its holder count is a de facto part of its appeal. Yet, we couldn't help but notice that the holder count has consistently stayed positive even when price action is in the red. With almost 180k holders, WIF boasts a broad-based distribution that creates a virtuous cycle for bringing in more holders as positions of current holders become increasingly profitable. 

• Strong volumes

Holders alone mean nothing, especially if they are paper hands who exit their positions at the first sign of trouble. One factor that shows that WIF has a solid foundation to make incredible highs during this bull run is the holder behaviour we noticed when the coin wicked down to a local low of $1.14 at a $1.1B market cap on August 5. 

On most days, WIF's market cap is often about 2x larger than its trading volumes on August 5; it socred record volumes of $1.34b as people considered WIF at $1.14 a bargain too good to be missed to rapidly buy up the dip. Whatever happens between here and the peak of the bull market, you can be rest assured that irrespective of the short-term volatility, the general direction is upwards and northbound inasmuch as WIF doesn't dip below $1.14.

It is in the top 20 list of coins with the largest volume in the entire crypto market, excluding stablecoins. It is the only Solana memecoin on that list, and depending on when you check, it sometimes has more volumes than SHIB or PEPE.

• Social sentiment

WIF is an organic memecoin that has naturally gained traction within the crypto community. Its rise in popularity has been driven by genuine interest and engagement from users rather than heavy marketing, insider deals or promotional efforts. Organic memes are less likely to experience price manipulations and insider tricks

WIF is designed to be a fun, engaging cryptocurrency that fosters a strong sense of community. The meme-inspired nature of the coin, featuring a playful dog wearing a hat, makes it appealing to a broad audience, particularly those who enjoy the humorous and social aspects of the crypto space.

• Strong community

WIF connects people and unites them under a common banner of enjoyment and shared love for dogs. Dogs are one of the most popular domestic pets, and many people love and relate to them. 

WIF's original developer abandoned the project, and the coin evolved into a pure community play. This shift places the project's fate entirely in the hands of its holders, who actively promote and vibe with the meme on the internet, strengthening WIF's network through their efforts. 

This decentralised approach means that WIF's development and promotion are democratic and organic, reflecting the collective will of its members.

A core principle of WIF is its fair and well-distributed nature. This ensures that a wide range of participants can access and benefit from the cryptocurrency, promoting decentralisation and reducing the risk of manipulation by a small group of holders. It has no insiders, VCs, or teams. Simple, fair, and effective distribution. 

With close to 180,000 wallets holding WIF, the community is both large and potentially powerful. Each holder contributes to the project's growth and stability by engaging in grassroots marketing. 

Valuation exercise + price targets

We've already established that WIF is a beta blay to SOL.

WIF caught fire to smash through the $1B market cap from around a $340m market cap within 5 days. It made that $1 target 77 days after we officially wrote the report. And then, it went on to make an all-time high of $4.83 less than one month later.

WIF is currently trading around $1.60, down ~66% from its ATH, but what does the future hold for this coin? 

Let's dive into the updated numbers.

• Current situation: 
  • SOL price: $145
  • WIF price: $1.60
  • WIF Market cap: $1.4b

Our updated model, with more historical data and five months more data than we had in March, suggests a beta coefficient of 1.77, while the p-value is roughly 0 (very strong evidence). 

Our last 2 models had beta coefficients of 1.95 and 5.02. To avoid biases, we decided to average all beta coefficients, which gave us a new beta coefficient of 2.91.

Based on this updated beta coefficient, we have the following.

The most important numbers in this price prediction are WIF's prices when SOL gets to $500, $750, and $1000, which are our base, bull, and best-case price targets for SOL during this bull run. 

But it gets better. 

Remember that we've had a beta coefficient of 5.02 as the highest post. This means the coefficient tends to increase as momentum, bullish sentiment, and mindshare increase. But instead of calculating what WIF would be worth at the top end of that coefficient, we decided to calculate its value based on the percentage difference between the average and highest coefficients relative to the highest coefficient; this gives us a 72.5% premium.

Assuming that WIF's beta coefficient again will trade at 5.02, we have the following estimates.

But it gets even much better.

Remember that our analysis shows an R-squared of 0.30. This means that SOL's price movement only accounts for 30% of the factors that affect WIF's price movement.

In other words, other qualitative factors like sentiment, listing on tier 1 exchanges, liquidity, hodler behaviour, and continued virality could have a much more significant effect in driving WIF's outperformance beyond whatever we gain from sustained bullish momentum in SOL.

So, what are Cryptonary's definitive price targets on WIF?

Base case: $10 (6.25x upside)

This scenario assumes a general upward trend in the market, with meme coins notably outperforming other categories but without the broader market experiencing a blowout top.

Bull case: $44 (27.5x upside)

We see this price target playing out with the memecoin supercycle entering full force to propel WIF and similar tokens to new heights. A combination of macroeconomic factors and specific market dynamics could drive this significant increase. Key among these is a potential rate cut, which generally serves to increase investment in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Best case: $100 (56x upside) This is the speculative "things have gotten crazy, we are seeing face-melting gains, and market exuberance has reached a near-frenzy state" phase.

We've seen this before, and it's reminiscent of previous speculative surges in crypto history. In this case, Solana blows past our $1000 best-case target while continuing to be the home of the hottest memes in the market. At this point, you'll expect WIF to emulate the success of DOGE, the original memecoin, and it could achieve similar speculative milestones, if not greater.

Time to stop trading and start holding 

It is important to remember that WIF is a memecoin, and as such, it is subject to wild volatility swings. Massive double-digit percentage moves to the upside or downside are normal occurrences.

But higher lows on the charts are positive signs, and while WIF is trading within a range, selling your coins in the hopes of buying at a lower price increases the odds that you'll trade yourself out of a breakout. 

That breakout can come at any moment. You need to be in the fight to have a shot at winning, and if the next leg of the rally kicks off after you've sold, you are out of the game. The smart move now is to buy, hold, and add more to your holdings on the dips if you have some stablecoins on the side.

Risks to consider before buying WIF

• Market risks 

Memecoins lack utility in the traditional sense. Their price is driven by narrative and future expectations of profit. However, when market sentiments shift, or the narrative loses momentum, memecoins can lose value drastically. This risk is exacerbated by the lack of fundamental value or practical use cases for these tokens, making their prices highly speculative and volatile.

Secondly, crypto is volatile. However, memecoins are volatile-squared. As mentioned earlier, a memecoin can go 80% down in a matter of days. This extreme volatility can be attributed to their speculative nature, driven primarily by hype and market sentiment rather than underlying value or utility. The rapid and significant price swings can lead to substantial losses, making it a high-risk investment.

Enduring such corrections and not losing conviction can be a tough nut to crack. It requires a strong understanding of the market dynamics, a clear investment strategy, and the ability to manage emotions in the face of extreme volatility. However, since WIF is among the top 50 coins by market cap, volatility has drastically decreased for the asset. Massive price swings are rarer compared to other memecoins.

• Regulatory risks

Generally speaking, there is no clear regulatory framework for memecoins. The SEC and other regulatory bodies could potentially target memecoins, especially those perceived as securities or involving fraudulent activities. The lack of clear rules and oversight can create uncertainty and risk for investors. However, the good news for WIF is that it is fully community-owned. There is no single point of failure or chokepoints, and no team of developers promised to deliver any utility to the coin or increase its price. This decentralised ownership structure could potentially shield WIF from regulatory scrutiny, as it is not controlled by any single entity that could be held liable. 

Conviction tracker: Eyes on the ball

The thesis for WIF has never been stronger. However, we need to keep our minds open if new information or narrative emerges that would challenge our thesis on WIF. This is the Cryptonary advantage, and if you are a Cryptonary member, you can rest assured that we will be the first to let you know if WIF runs out of steam.

To be sure that our bullish thesis on WIF is still valid, here are some things we are watching

• Number of holders

A significant and sustained decrease in the number of holders would indicate a bearish shift, as investors might be losing interest or confidence in WIF, leading them to sell off their holdings. It would mean that community members are abandoning the meme, which can be detrimental to WIF's success. So far, the number of holders has been consistently increasing, supporting our bullish thesis on WIF.

• Social sentiment

A decline in positive sentiment or an increase in negative sentiment on social media and forums can be a precursor to a bearish trend. It reflects the community's less favourable outlook, which can influence the broader market sentiment. So far, the sentiment has been predominately positive.

• Narrative trend

Negative changes in the narrative, such as unfavourable regulatory news, the memecoin market being saturated, or bad actors such as influencers/celebrities damaging the image of memes as pure speculative assets, can erode investor confidence and contribute to a bearish outlook. During this cycle, the narrative has been strong in memecoins. However, we are constantly monitoring whether there is a shift in stories people tell and mindshare.

Invalidation criteria

Based on the factors we are monitoring above, here's how we might frame the invalidation criteria for our thesis on WIF:

• Macro environment

The emergence of significant changes in the broader economic environment adversely affects speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Crypto falls into the high end of the risk curve; therefore, monitoring the broader economic environment is crucial. Indicators could include aggressive tightening of monetary policies, political and geographical instabilities, or wider economic slowdowns and recessions

• Big players selling

If there's evidence of large-scale selling by major holders or early investors. This can be monitored through blockchain explorers. We are actively tracking major holders and early players. A major shift in their convictions can indicate a shift in the explosive growth of WIF. 

• Narrative shift

The emergence of negative themes such as stringent regulatory changes affecting memecoins, a saturation of the memecoin market, or detrimental actions by influential figures. Confirmation of these themes in major news outlets or a measurable decline in positive mentions could invalidate the current positive outlook. We are leveraging the latest crypto-specific market intelligence solutions to monitor the sentiment and narrative.

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How to buy WIF

1. Buying on a centralised exchange

• Step 1: Choose a centralised exchange
  • Popular centralised exchanges that list WIF include Binance, Kraken and MEXC.
• Step 2: Create and verify your account
  • Sign up for an account on the chosen exchange and go through the verification process, 
• Step 3: Deposit funds
  • Deposit funds into your exchange account. You can typically use bank transfers, credit/debit cards, or cryptocurrency transfers.
  • Check the exchange's supported payment methods if you are depositing fiat currency (like USD or EUR).
• Step 4: Buy WIF
  • Navigate to the trading section of the exchange.
  • Search for the WIF trading pair (e.g., WIF/USDT, WIF/SOL)
  • Decide on the amount of SOL you want to purchase and choose between a market or limit order.
    • Market order: Buy WIF at the current market price.
    • Limit order: Set a specific price at which you want to buy WIF. The order will be fulfilled once the market reaches your specified price.
  • Review the order details and confirm the purchase.
• Step 5: Withdraw WIF to your wallet
  • After purchasing WIF, it's a good practice to withdraw the tokens to a secure wallet like Phantom for safekeeping.

2. Buying via Phantom wallet

• Step 1: Install Phantom wallet
  • Download and install the Phantom wallet extension for your browser from the official Phantom website.
  • Create a new wallet or import an existing one using your recovery phrase.
• Step 2: Secure your wallet
  • Write down and securely store your recovery phrase. This phrase is crucial for recovering your wallet in case of loss or device failure.
• Step 3: Fund your Phantom wallet
  • Deposit WIF directly into your Phantom wallet by transferring it from a centralised exchange where you've purchased WIF.
  • Alternatively, deposit other Solana-supported tokens stablecoins like USDC or USDT if you plan to swap them for WIF.
• Step 4: Use the built-in swap feature
  • Open the Phantom wallet and navigate to the "Swap" tab.
  • Choose the token you wish to swap (e.g., USDC) and select WIF as the output.
  • Enter the amount you want to swap and review the transaction details, including the estimated network fees.
  • Confirm the transaction and approve it within the Phantom wallet.
• Step 5: Verify the transaction
  • Once the transaction is complete, you'll see the updated WIF balance in your Phantom wallet.

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Cryptonary's take

WIF has gone from underdog to top dog in less than a year.

When we first covered WIF in December 2023, we knew it was a solid memecoin opportunity, but we were cautiously optimistic, and our first target was to see if it would cross the $1B market cap threshold. In fact, we framed WIF as a beta play to BONK, and if you had missed BONK at that time, WIF offered you a second chance to get on memecoins.

Three months later, it became obvious that we were wrong. WIF wasn't a beta play to BONK but a beta play to SOL. WIF has cemented its place as the leading memecoin in the Solana ecosystem, demonstrating one of the strongest growth and price action. Despite its roots in internet memes, WIF has garnered interest from both retail and professional investors. With the potential to replicate DOGE's success, WIF could reach significant price milestones, with projections as high as $88 per coin. While the investment carries inherent risks due to its speculative nature and market volatility, WIF's strong performance, strategic positioning within the thriving Solana ecosystem, and widespread recognition provide a compelling case for continued bullish outlook and investment consideration.

WIF is just starting out; don't fumble the bag.

Cryptonary, Out!

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Content ledger

• Cryptonary's State of The Memecoin Market Report
• The memecoin battleground: Organic vs corporate 'cabal'
• Corporate vs organic memecoins: Don't become exit liquidity for VCs
• WIF is heading to the moon: updated price targets
• WIF claims Cryptonary's target of $1 after 77 days!
• WTF is happening to WIF and  POPCAT?
• Here's why we think WIF will be unstoppable
• If you missed BONK, WIF offers you a second chance