Hyperliquid is a next-generation decentralized exchange that brings lightning-fast trades, CEX-level features, and total transparency, all powered by its own blockchain. If you have been following us, you might be aware that Hyperliquid is one of our favourite Perp DEXes.
We identified the airdrop opportunity back in February and updated our community about the status of the airdrop in October.
Finally, Hyperliquid has launched its token today and is currently trading at around $3.5-$4 or $1b-$1.3b market capitalisation.
While we shared our thoughts regarding Hyperliquid earlier in the year here, we think it is a good time to provide more information on this airdrop, what to do, and what is next. Let's dive in…
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
A quick review of Tokenomics
First of all, if you have been farming the airdrop and made time-sensitive actions we shared with our community here, you should have received HYPE tokens on balance on Hyperliquid. Check out your balances; some of our members printed multiple 5 figures.
Coming back to the token, $HYPE has a maximum supply of 1,000,000,000 tokens. It will be used as a gas token for staking and governance. The distribution of supply is very good. From the chart below, we can see that a large amount is going out to the community through future rewards and the genesis distribution. But that being said, it does seem that a lot of the tokens, about 45%, will be given to the team.
However, the other 55% of tokens are going to the community, with 31% of tokens allocated as airdrop and circulating since day 1.
Cryptonary's game plan
At the time of writing, the token is trading at $4.3, or around $1.5b mcap, which is quite nice. It is one of the few airdrops in recent history that is steadily increasing instead of instantly dumping upon token generation.
That is justifiable since Hyperliquid is one of the platforms that has a very strong product market fit, and it has been dominating the market in many metrics. For example, it consistently ranks 1st in total volume facilitated among all perp DEXes in the market; that is a huge accomplishment.
Further, it provides one of the best user experiences and has been reducing its slippage consistently to attract large capital and professional/institutional traders.
The closest competitor to Hyperliquid, historically, has been DYDX. Based on the TVL and volume for both Hyperliquid, blue, and DYDX, green, we can see that Hyperliquid metrics are quite attractive compared to DYDX.
It is worth noting that DYDX launched at a $1.2b market capitalisation when they did their airdrop. Since we see superior metrics relative to DYDX, we expect the HYPE token to go higher than DYDX. Additionally, $250 million USDC was added to Hyperliquid today, potentially as capital intended to buy the HYPE tokens upon launch.
We believe the closest token, product-wise and community-wise, is JUP. Similar to HYPE, JUP didn't have any VCs involved and allocated a large portion of its supply to the community. Therefore, we will base the potential valuation of the success of JUP.
The current fully diluted (FDV) market capitalisation of JUP is $11.4b. Meanwhile, the FDV of HYPE is around $4b.
We are not gonna say they will have an equal valuation, but they should be somewhat close. Therefore, we think selling above a $ 7.5b valuation would be a good trade. Thus, we decided to be a little conservative and give ourselves a little bit of buffer. Unit-wise, selling anything above $7 will be a great valuation to sell to.
For buying, we consider anything below $750m to be a very good bargain, and we will be looking for those prices to add to our bags.
To summarise:
- Sell: above $7
- Buy: below $2.25
Cryptonary's take
Hyperliquid's emergence as a dominant decentralised exchange (DEX) highlights the shift toward faster, more transparent trading platforms that rival centralised exchanges (CEXs) in functionality. With its intuitive interface, lightning-fast execution, and massive volumes, Hyperliquid is reshaping the perpetual DEX landscape.At Cryptonary, we prefer using Hyperliquid over any CEX due to its simplicity, superior user experience, and unmatched liquidity. The platform consistently ranks #1 in total volume among perpetual DEXes, underlining its appeal to professional and institutional traders.
The $250 million USDC added to the platform today further cements its position as a market leader, reflecting strong interest from the broader crypto trading audience.
The launch of its token, $HYPE, solidifies Hyperliquid's ecosystem. With a fair distribution favouring the community (happy airdrop day!) and no VC overhang, $HYPE is well-positioned for growth. Further,Hyperliquid's superior metrics relative to competitors like DYDX suggest strong upside potential, making it one of the most exciting projects in the crypto space right now.
Even though the market is dynamic, we have outlined our strategy in terms of selling and buying HYPE in the short term. For the long term, expect our deep dive…
Enjoy your airdrop!
Cryptonary, OUT
Recommended from Cryptonary
