Alpha-DAO Proposal #28

All research completed by Alpha-DAO to build out a thesis behind the following investment or any other market movements are explained below.

The report also includes the execution strategy, alongside the capital allocated and the fees paid to the blockchain once a proposal is passed.

Disclaimer: This is not investment nor investment advice. Only you are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make and only you are accountable for the results.

The information made available in this report is NOT for replication. The purpose is to share the thought process behind the DAO’s decision-making – additionally, this is a HIGH-RISK journey for the DAO which means capital has also been allocated in accordance with this. Once again, DO NOT REPLICATE.

 

Asset(s): SYN

Proposal: Invest $8000 in SYN

Thesis:

The state of the market has been relatively steady the last few months despite the ongoing Fed (and other central banks) QT programs. The main objective with this investment is to add exposure to SYN in preparation for Synapse Chain testnet and subsequent mainnet:

• AlphaDAO does not yet have exposure to SYN, which I believe will be essential if we are to outperform this market (reasoning here and here).

The reasoning behind the $8000 figure is that this represents profits from the ETH trade and capital freed up from our sales throughout Q3. The relatively heavy exposure, I believe, will pay off as I anticipate that peak Fed hawkishness will likely be over after the expected 75bps November hike. The reasoning for that thesis can be found here.

SYN

The thesis here is largely explained in the 50x report. However, another point is that SYN has been holding up particularly well despite BTC volatility and outperforming even in small market moves to the upside. I believe there is significant upside potential with the launch of testnet expected this year, and I think not having some exposure here is a higher risk than more market downside.

Strategy:

Voting period is 24 hours.

Upon successful passing of the vote, or enough votes to make quorum, I propose we begin deploying capital into SYN as follows:

• SYN: Weekly DCA for 4 weeks starting as soon as the proposal passes - $2000 per week up to $8000.
• Staking: Once single-sided SYN staking becomes available on Synapse Chain we should immediately begin earning yield on our holdings.
• Targets: I suggest taking 50% profit at 2x from cost basis to recover initial, with a clause for us to decide to either delay or expedite taking profit at AlphaDAO weekly meetings. Further profits should be extracted at the levels outlined in the 50x report (quantity dependent on market conditions at the time):
  • $5.30
  • $8
  • $32
  • $54
• Invalidation: I suggest invalidation should be fluid, and we should be focused on the wider macro conditions to invalidate the thesis that the bottom is near. A generalization would be continued Fed hawkishness for the rest of the year and higher CPI prints (e.g., 0.4%+ MoM Core CPI). This would be discussed at AlphaDAO meetings.

Execution:

 Partially Executed 

The DAO is dollar cost averaging (DCA) into Synapse, with a $2000 purchase per week for 4 weeks.

First transaction has been completed, with 2,000 USDC swapped for 1,942 SYN.

TX Link

Second transaction has been completed, with 2,000 USDC swapped for 2,870.68 SYN.

TX Link

Third transaction has been completed, with 2,000 USDC swapped for 3297 SYN.

TX Link

 

AlphaDAO has paused DCA for now. SYN has not been performing as expected and we're currently in discussion about how to proceed.