Bitcoin: risk-on or risk-off?
The great debate has been on whether Bitcoin is a risk-on asset like equities or risk-off like gold. Last month we saw the Bitcoin/gold correlation rise back to all-time highs. Additionally, we saw mimicked movements during geopolitical tensions (Iran/US and coronavirus outbreak).
Last week we saw an “unexpected” movement from Bitcoin when the equities markets sharply dropped. As Bitcoin had already shown signs of being a risk-off asset it means we would expect investors to seek refuge in it in times of uncertainty and a stock market crash fits that definition. However, we saw Bitcoin drop alongside the equities market, why is that?
Let’s start with the correlation with the most popular risk-off asset: Gold.
[caption id="attachment_14255" align="aligncenter" width="2506"]
Source: Coinmetrics[/caption]
As can be seen by the previous chart, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has remained relatively stable with no sharp downturns. That can be explained by the fact that even gold dropped sharply alongside equities.
The reason for that “unexpected” move is due to the steepness of the crash. Upon further inspection, it became clear that the high selling volume stemmed from the futures market which means that investors had to sell all they could to get cash on hand and prevent their equities positions from being liquidated and losing a big portion of their capital. That same movement occurred at the beginning of the 2008 crash as well.
Hence, if the definition of a risk-off asset is determined by gold, Bitcoin has not “betrayed” it or deviated from it. Even as the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cuts that created some relief in the equities market, both gold and Bitcoin had a small rally alongside stocks.
Although these characteristics between gold and Bitcoin are being shared at the moment, Bitcoin is still finding its macro-placement in the financial markets. That current definition of Bitcoin being a risk-off asset may soon change.
In an ideal situation, we’d like to see Bitcoin and crypto as an asset class become uncorrelated. That means they move according to their own dynamics and far from what other asset classes are doing (not very probable in a connected economy). This would create a new place for it in a traditional investment portfolio and can lower the risk the latter is exposed to.
Bitcoin’s current correlation to gold is not very positive because as it serves the same purpose in a portfolio at the moment, and investment managers would likely choose gold over it. Once cryptocurrencies as a whole find their ultimate stance in financial markets, as they continue to mature, they will likely have their own allocation, serve a different purpose and de-risk portfolios.
Image Licensed via Pixabay
100% Success Money Back Guarantee
If our approach doesn’t outperform the overall crypto market during your subscription, we’ll give you a full refund of your membership. No questions asked. For quarterly and monthly subscribers this is applicable once your subscription runs for 6 consecutive months.
Take your next step towards crypto success
$799/year
Get everything you need to actively manage your portfolio and stay ahead. Ideal for investors seeking regular guidance and access to tools that help make informed decisions.
For your security, all orders are processed on a secured server.
What’s included in Pro:
Success Guarantee, if we don’t outperform the market, you get 100% back, no questions asked
24/7 access to experts with 50+ years’ experience
All of our top token picks for 2025
Our latest memecoins pick with 50X potential
On hand technical analysis on any token of your choice
Weekly livestreams & ask us anything with the team
Daily insights on Macro, Mechanics, and On-chain
Curated list of top upcoming airdrops (free money)
Our track record speaks for itself
With over 2.4M tokens and widespread misinformation in crypto, we cut
through the noise and consistently find winning assets.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I trust Cryptonary's calls?
Yes. We've consistently identified winners across multiple cycles. Bitcoin under $1,000, Ethereum under $70, Solana under $10, WIF from $0.003 to $5, PopCat from $0.004 to $2, SPX blasting past $1.70, and our latest pick has already 200X'd since June 2025. Everything is timestamped and public record.
Do I need to be an experienced trader or investor to benefit?
No. When we founded Cryptonary in 2017 the market was new to everyone. We intentionally created content that was easy to understand and actionable. That foundational principle is the crux of Cryptonary. Taking complex ideas and opportunities and presenting them in a way a 10 year old could understand.
What makes Cryptonary different from free crypto content on YouTube or Twitter?
Signal vs noise. We filter out 99.9% of garbage projects, provide data backed analysis, and have a proven track record of finding winners. Not to mention since Cryptonary's inception in 2017 we have never taken investment, sponsorship or partnership. Compare this to pretty much everyone else, no track record, and a long list of partnerships that cloud judgements.
Why is there no trial or refund policy?
We share highly sensitive, time-critical research. Once it's out, it can't be "returned." That's why membership is annual only. Crypto success takes time and commitment. If someone is not willing to invest 12 months into their future, there is no place for them at Cryptonary.
Do I get direct access to the Cryptonary team?
Yes. You will have 24/7 to the team that bought you BTC at $1,000, ETH at $70, and SOL at $10. Through our community chats, live Q&As, and member only channels, you can ask questions and interact directly with the team. Our team has over 50 years of combined experience which you can tap into every single day.
How often is content updated?
Daily. We provide real-time updates, weekly reports, emergency alerts, and live Q&As when the markets move fast. In crypto, the market moves fast, in Cryptonary, we move faster.
How does the success guarantee work?
If our approach to the market doesn’t beat the overall crypto market during your subscription, we’ll give you a full refund of your membership fee. No questions asked. For quarterly and monthly subscribers this is applicable once your subscription runs for 6 consecutive months.
Recommended from Cryptonary
