CME ETH Futures Launch
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is the world's largest derivatives exchange. In the cryptocurrency world, the CME isn't seen in the brightest light because many associate the crash of 2018 with the launch of Bitcoin Futures and then ETH Futures.
Bitcoin Futures launched on the 17th of December 2017 on the CME, the same day the market topped. For many, this association with CME Futures Launch = Bearish was born.
In this case study, we'll look at the facts and try to depict the possible outcomes post-ETH Futures launch on the CME. In order to do so, we will first revisit Bitcoin price action at the end of the 2017 cycle to determine whether the crash was a mere coincidence or factual causation.
CME Launches Bitcoin Futures & Price Crashes
As you can see in the chart above, Bitcoin's price has only seen a downside for over a year since the launch of BTC Futures on the CME. Overall crash to the tune of -85%. The timing is too exact to be ignored, right?Bitcoin in late 2017 was growing at a parabolic rate, this alone was an unsustainable trend. Market participants were throwing money they could not afford to lose (some remortgaging their homes), this is indicative to the type of money entering the market, which is "not the smartest," to say the least.
The market was approaching a tipping point: sellers were about to outweigh the buyers simply because there was no more new money to come in.
What did the CME Futures launch do? It was a two-part answer:
- Bitcoin was growing in price in anticipation of that launch (Bitcoin becoming an institutional asset narrative - was premature back then). A typical "sell the news" scenario.
- CME Futures' availability accentuated the move down as it gave traders a liquid market to short the euphoria.
CME Launching Ether Futures: Bullish? Bearish?
Firstly, we could see a "sell the news" type of movement that brings prices down to around $1,420 (2017 high) - read today's analysis in Discord Pro for more details. However, a full bear market initiation is highly unlikely. Why?- ETH is a follower of Bitcoin: As an asset, Ether does not (yet at least) have a say in where the market rotates from a bull to a bear market, only BTC has that power.
- Liquid Market: The ETH market is nowhere as liquid as the BTC market. This is problematic for institutions because they cannot purchase in large batches without causing significant price movements. CME futures contracts are a solution to this problem, as liquidity is no longer an obstacle.
- Very Bullish: CME ETH Futures longed to gain exposure that could not be achieved with spot.
- Bullish: CME ETH Futures used to short ETH while simultaneously buying ETHE (Grayscale Trust) to arbitrage the premium the latter trades at - this will cause a spot driven rally.
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