Coinbase IPO
Coinbase is one the oldest and most established companies within the crypto-industry and they are going public on April 14th 2021 on Nasdaq. You most probably are familiar with their business, but in case you are not, here's a quick round-up:
Coinbase, founded in 2012, is a cryptocurrency exchange with no physical headquarters anywhere in the world. Today, the exchange supports 50+ crypto-assets. The recent surge in Bitcoin institutional interest directly benefitted Coinbase, as many entities chose it as a venue of choice to make their Bitcoin purchases - including Tesla.
Business Model
The exchange has a very strong business model that derives revenue from two sources:- Trading fees
- Coinbase Custody
The Numbers & Valuation
Coinbase reported 6.1 Million active monthly users that set through at least one transaction with a total trading volume of $335 Billion. The exchange also custodied a total of $223 Billion ($122B of which belong to institutions).The total revenue sat at $1.8 Billion with a net income of ~$800 million. There is not set valuation for the company yet (it will be set by the market price post-listing), however the base price per share was set at $250 which implies a $50 Billion floor valuation. With that being said, the pre-IPO contracts being traded on FTX are pricing Coinbase shares at $615 which implies a valuation of $120B+.
The Public Listing
Coinbase Ticker: COINCoinbase's "IPO" isn't an IPO per se and more of a direct listing. An Initial Public Offering (IPO) is a method for a company to raise further funds by issuing new shares and selling them to the public. That process is very common but differs from a direct listing. On the other hand, a direct listing does not issue any new shares nor does it raise new capital for the company. Instead, the existing investors are able to sell their shares on the market to new eager investors. Typically, IPOs have a 6-12 months lock-up period on existing shareholders shares before they can sell any - a direct listing does not have any such restrictions.
The listing process will start with a $250 base price for shares. Trading will not go live until after buyers have set in their bids and existing shareholders begin quoting asks. This process will set the actual listing price. If we are to base the price off of what the pre-IPO contracts are currently trading at, COIN shares can very easily double the listing price to $400-500 before any trading occurs.
At $500 per share, the valuation becomes tricky because it values Coinbase at +50% from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
From a game theory perspective, obviously current shareholders (including long-time employees) have every interest to sell their shares as the listing will create "overnight" millionaires (highly deserved). But will the demand exceed the supply? It is hard to fathom that investors will be diving head first on a decade-old company valued higher than NYSE.
Cryptocurrency Market Effect
While COIN shares may be seen as overvalued by buyers, the listing definitely proves that crypto is a force to be reckoned with. This will likely increase the capital-drip speed from the institutional faucet into BTC & ETH.Taking short-term bets based on highly uncertain outcomes has low odds of success and we like to ensure odds are always in our favour. The one conclusion we can say is:
Coinbase going public is highly bullish for the crypto-space, starting with BTC, then ETH and then DeFi.
You may wonder why DeFi? Well where are the crypto-exchanges of the future? Hint: We call them DEXes 🚀
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