Cryptonary's 2026 Crypto Market Outlook

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results

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Executive Summary

2025 was brutal. One of the most volatile years crypto has ever seen. At the start of the year, if you'd told anyone in this space that Gold would be approaching $4,500, the consensus on Bitcoin would've been mid six figures. Instead, we're sitting at $92,000, down 27% from highs.

So where does that leave us heading into 2026?

The market is at a tipping point. The doomsayers are calling for a bear market inspired by the 4-year cycle. Others are convinced we're about to go parabolic. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between.

We think 2026 has the potential to be one of the most significant years in crypto history. Regulatory clarity is accelerating while liquidity conditions are shifting. Institutional infrastructure has matured in ways that weren't true even 12 months ago.

But the path won't be clean.

Q1 and Q2 will be choppy, volatile, and unforgiving for those poorly positioned. Q3 and Q4 is where we expect the real move. The implication is simple: positioning is everything. The returns in the second half won't matter if you've been shaken out in the first.

In this report, we share our 2026 framework: what we expect, why we expect it, and how we're approaching it. We also look back at 2025 as a case study: what we got right, what we didn't, and what that reveals about how we think.

This year, we're also expanding our lens beyond native crypto. Gold had its best year in over four decades. Silver hit all-time highs. Stocks outperformed crypto. 

As always, our subscribers get a front-row seat. We're not here to hand you a to-do list, we're here to help you think clearly. How you interpret and apply this information could help you make more informed decisions in the new year. 

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents    

2025 Scorecard + Performance Review

• From Broad Exposure to Selectivity
• Key Sectors & Rotations in 2025
• Incentive and Airdrop Strategies
• What Our Subscribers Missed in 2025

Macro Outlook for 2026

• Methodology to Macro
• The Fed’s in Pause Mode
• Inflation is Coming Down
• The Labour Market is Weakening
• Range Compression
• Patience Will Pay Dividends in 2026
• How We Think About Regimes

Fundamental Outlook for 2026

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• Solana (SOL)
• Hyperliquid (HYPE)
• Key takeaways

Market Structure 37

• Bitcoin Dominance & Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance
• Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance
• ETH/BTC: 12-month map and daily structure
• TOTAL3 (excluding BTC, ETH, Stablecoins)
• Bitcoin vs Gold: Rotation Timing And What It Implies

Sectors We're Watching in 2026

• Majors: BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE
• Perps and Prediction Markets
• Stablecoins and RWAs
• Privacy: Monero/Zcash vs Ethereum/Solana
• Memecoins: The Asymmetric Bet Revisited
  • Why We've Earned the Right to This View
  • Our Core Thesis
  • Memecoins Are the Onboarding Funnel for Crypto
  • Attention Is the Underlying Asset
  • Zero Duration Risk in an Uncertain World
  • Timing the Window
  • The Honest Conclusion
• Key Takeaways

Risk & Portfolio Principles for 2026

• Intentional Exposure and Liquidity
• Operational Risk, Volatility Budgeting, and Position Sizing
• Portfolio Structure at Scale
• Regime Reality and Investor Behaviour                                                                                                                                        

This report is provided in PDF format for ease of reading and sharing. The full document can be accessed via our Google Drive here.

Enjoy!