Cryptonary's thesis on DogWifHat (WIF)

Memecoins, love them or hate them, were the stars over the last 12 months delivering unbelievable returns. And of all the memecoins in the market, WIF has established itself as the crown jewel. Let's dive into our thesis on DogWifHat...

We identified WIF as a top winner back in December, and our call to invest at an average entry price of $0.004 has resulted in an astonishing 120,650% return, equating to over 1200x increase since our initial entries.

However, can WIF regain its momentum and deliver outsized returns? Well, let's dive in!

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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A quick recap on WIF

What is WIF? It is "literally just a dog wif a hat." That's it! No secret sauce! No special tech! No team! No roadmap!

It makes no promises. It WON'T advance the frontiers of civilisation; it CAN'T activate a paradigm shift at the intersection of finance and technology; it is NOT a next-gen anything. It is just a dog wearing a hat!

But let's get serious!

Simply put, WIF is a memecoin. Memecoins are a type of speculative asset that gained significant attention during the 2013 bull run with the arrival of DOGE. They got super popular during the 2017 bull run, with the likes of Shiba, Floki, and Pepe getting into the limelight. 

Understanding the WIF meme

WIF is a dog-inspired memecoin, similar to Dogecoin (DOGE). There has been a profound relationship between humans and dogs for thousands of years, rooted in companionship, loyalty, and shared experiences. Dogs have evolved from wild animals into our closest companions, offering unconditional love, protection, and a sense of belonging. This bond transcends time and culture, and it's no surprise that dog-themed memecoins tap into this primal connection.

These dog-themed memecoins create a sense of fun, community, and shared identity among holders by evoking the deep emotional ties we share with our canine friends. WIF, with its playful and endearing image of a dog wearing a hat, is a reflection of the simple joys and whimsical moments that dogs bring into our lives. 

In a world increasingly dominated by technology and complexity, WIF reminds us that sometimes, the most valuable things are those that bring a smile to our faces and connect us with others in the most human of ways.

Again, WIF is a joke but a valuable joke nonetheless.  

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The bullish case for WIF

WIF was one of our best-performing memes for the 2024/2025 cycle and it is positioned to continue to performing relatively well if the memecoin narratives makes a comeback. It got all Tier-1 listings (Robinhood, Coinbase, Binance, etc) and is available for a very broad audience of investors.

• Market potential 

WIF (DogWifHat) stands out as one of the few organic memecoins in the market that has successfully achieved what many refer to as "escape velocity." This means has reached a level of growth and independence, making continued success likely without constant external support. 

The price action of WIF further underscores its appeal. Despite experiencing multiple sharp corrections where it lost over 80% of its value, WIF has consistently demonstrated a strong ability to recover and quickly reach new all-time highs. This relative stability had made WIF widely regarded as the safest option with the maximum upside potential, making it a prime candidate for capitalising on the anticipated memecoin supercycle. However, recently WIF has gone through an ugly correction but still remains of the strongest memes that originated from the trenches  and has retail appeal.

The appeal of memecoins like WIF is a function of their simplicity and accessibility, making them particularly attractive to retail investors. These investors find memecoins easy to understand, engage with, buy, and hold. Let's be frank; when new people come into crypto, most of them aren't typically coming because of the technology. They usually come with the expectation of making money. Understanding hard-core concepts like liquid staking, scaling solutions, and zero-knowledge technology is just too much work for such people. But when you talk about what retail participants can intuitively "get"—well, the dog just has a hat! 

• The Solana factor

The market performance has been strong within the Solana ecosystem, where WIF resides, and WIF has emerged as the leading memecoin.  The best part is that Solana positions itself as the blockchain for the masses. When the masses come to Solana and want an asset that they can easily understand, WIF takes the top spot. This synergy between WIF and Solana could lead to increased adoption and usage, driving the coin's value upward. WIF distinguishes itself as one of the strongest meme coins in this cycle. Its community-driven approach and the sheer number of active holders contribute to its unique appeal. 

The current market dynamics also favour WIF. The memecoin supercycle has generated significant investor interest, with many looking for the next big opportunity. With its strong community, strategic position within the Solana ecosystem, and viral potential, WIF is well-placed to attract these investors.

Its network effects are robust, drawing recognition and support from diverse sources, including crypto-specific communities, venture capitalists, hedge funds, and entities from traditional financial markets.

• A dog without equals

Unlike many other memecoins, WIF has experienced organic growth from day one. This sets it apart in a market often driven by hype and short-term speculation. The lack of insider control and the wide distribution of WIF across over 217,000 unique wallets underscore its genuinely decentralised distribution. This distribution ensures that the supply is owned by the community, not manipulated by scammy influencers or celebrities looking to make a quick profit.

WIF's growth trajectory and community-centric approach have earned it the status of a blue-chip meme coin in the crypto space. Despite its memecoin status, it is one of the safest memecoins in the market to capitalise on when memecoin narrative makes a comeback. Let's remember, what memecoins can do when they are in the right market environment:

While many altcoins are built on strong fundamentals and technological advancements, the current market sentiment leans towards memecoins. This cycle's early preference for memecoins over fundamentally strong altcoins underscores the importance of community and narrative in driving value during risk-on environments. 

As a result, WIF has eaten a lot of capital and liquidity from other altcoins' market cap, outperforming even the best altcoins this cycle when broader market environment was accommodating risk-on behaviour. 

But the most important factor of all is that the dog has a hat.

WIF is not a blind gamble

As we've said times before, the argument that memecoins lack fundamentals is not entirely true – they have fundamentals, but the fundamentals are just different from the ones you use for traditional assets. Here are some of WIF's incredible fundamentals.

• Holder count

To be fair, during its reign WIF has established itself as a top dog, and its holder count is a de facto part of its appeal. Its holder count has consistently stayed positive even when price action is in the red. With over 220k holder, it is one of the most widely distributed memes out there in the market.

• Social sentiment

WIF is an organic memecoin that has naturally gained traction within the crypto community. Its rise in popularity has been driven by genuine interest and engagement from users rather than heavy marketing, insider deals or promotional efforts. Organic memes are less likely to experience price manipulations and insider tricks.

WIF is designed to be a fun, engaging cryptocurrency that fosters a strong sense of community. The meme-inspired nature of the coin, featuring a playful dog wearing a hat, makes it appealing to a broad audience, particularly those who enjoy the humorous and social aspects of the crypto space.

• Strong community

WIF connects people and unites them under a common banner of enjoyment and shared love for dogs. Dogs are one of the most popular domestic pets, and many people love and relate to them. 

WIF's original developer abandoned the project, and the coin evolved into a pure community play. This shift places the project's fate entirely in the hands of its holders, who actively promote and vibe with the meme on the internet, strengthening WIF's network through their efforts. 

This decentralised approach means that WIF's development and promotion are democratic and organic, reflecting the collective will of its members.

A core principle of WIF is its fair and well-distributed nature. This ensures that a wide range of participants can access and benefit from the cryptocurrency, promoting decentralisation and reducing the risk of manipulation by a small group of holders. It has no insiders, VCs, or teams. Simple, fair, and effective distribution. 

With close to 180,000 wallets holding WIF, the community is both large and potentially powerful. Each holder contributes to the project's growth and stability by engaging in grassroots marketing. 

Valuation exercise + price targets

As mentioned earlier, WIF has been among the strongest performers during memecoin mania. However, the broader market was hit with strong dispersion and selling pressure due to market participants derisking amid growing macroeconomic concerns. As a result, WIF has lost momentum, and the price action doesn’t look good at the moment.

However, despite somewhat ugly price action, WIF remains one of the strongest trench memes in the market. And if the meme narrative returns, WIF can still perform well, however, we can’t deny that regaining previous momentum will be somewhat difficult and therefore we have conservative targets for WIF at the moment.

Based on current price action, we have the following scenarios:

Base scenario: Wif will regain $1 and delivering investors relatively safe 2x on their investments Best scenario: After regaining $1, WIF regains the momentum and mindshare as an OG trench memecoin, and will reach $2 target.

In summary:

• Base scenario: $1
• Best scenario: $2

We believe there are many bagholders that will be happy to offload their position on breakevens, therefore we think the selling will create a strong upside cap for WIF.

Risks to consider before buying WIF

• Market risks 

Memecoins lack utility in the traditional sense. Their price is driven by narrative and future expectations of profit. However, when market sentiments shift, or the narrative loses momentum, memecoins can lose value drastically. This risk is exacerbated by the lack of fundamental value or practical use cases for these tokens, making their prices highly speculative and volatile.

Secondly, crypto is volatile. However, memecoins are volatile-squared. As mentioned earlier, a memecoin can go 80% down in a matter of days. This extreme volatility can be attributed to their speculative nature, driven primarily by hype and market sentiment rather than underlying value or utility. The rapid and significant price swings can lead to substantial losses, making it a high-risk investment.

Enduring such corrections and not losing conviction can be a tough nut to crack. It requires a strong understanding of the market dynamics, a clear investment strategy, and the ability to manage emotions in the face of extreme volatility. However, since WIF is among the top 50 coins by market cap, volatility has drastically decreased for the asset. Massive price swings are rarer compared to other memecoins.

• Regulatory risks

Generally speaking, there is no clear regulatory framework for memecoins. The SEC and other regulatory bodies could potentially target memecoins, especially those perceived as securities or involving fraudulent activities. The lack of clear rules and oversight can create uncertainty and risk for investors. However, the good news for WIF is that it is fully community-owned. There is no single point of failure or chokepoints, and no team of developers promised to deliver any utility to the coin or increase its price. This decentralised ownership structure could potentially shield WIF from regulatory scrutiny, as it is not controlled by any single entity that could be held liable. 

Conviction tracker: Eyes on the ball

The thesis for WIF is very clear. However, we need to keep our minds open if new information or narrative emerges that would challenge our thesis on WIF. This is the Cryptonary advantage, and if you are a Cryptonary member, you can rest assured that we will be the first to let you know if WIF runs out of steam.

To be sure that our bullish thesis on WIF is still valid, here are some things we are watching

• Number of holders

A significant and sustained decrease in the number of holders would indicate a bearish shift, as investors might be losing interest or confidence in WIF, leading them to sell off their holdings. It would mean that community members are abandoning the meme, which can be detrimental to WIF's success. In the last few month, the number of holders were as optimistic as we hope it to be, but it support our stance of taking profits and de-risking back in Jan-Feb.

• Social sentiment

A decline in positive sentiment or an increase in negative sentiment on social media and forums can be a precursor to a bearish trend. It reflects the community's less favourable outlook, which can influence the broader market sentiment. So far, the sentiment has been predominately positive.

• Narrative trend

Negative changes in the narrative can erode investor confidence and contribute to a bearish outlook. Such changes include unfavourable regulatory news, the saturated memecoin market, or bad actors such as influencers/celebrities damaging the image of memes as pure speculative assets. During this cycle, the narrative has been strong in memecoins. However, we are constantly monitoring whether there is a shift in stories people tell and mindshare. And again, lately the meme sector has been losing mindshare overall. It now ranks 3rd in mindshare after AI and DeFi. Will it regain its top spot again? We are positive overall on the sector, but we are exercising caution at the moment.

Invalidation criteria

Based on the factors we are monitoring above, here's how we might frame the invalidation criteria for our thesis on WIF:

• Macro environment

The emergence of significant changes in the broader economic environment adversely affects speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Crypto falls into the high end of the risk curve; therefore, monitoring the broader economic environment is crucial. Indicators could include aggressive tightening of monetary policies, political and geographical instabilities, or wider economic slowdowns and recessions

• Big players selling

If there's evidence of large-scale selling by major holders or early investors. This can be monitored through blockchain explorers. We are actively tracking major holders and early players. A major shift in their convictions can indicate a shift in the explosive growth of WIF. 

• Narrative shift

The emergence of negative themes such as stringent regulatory changes affecting memecoins, a saturation of the memecoin market, or detrimental actions by influential figures. Confirmation of these themes in major news outlets or a measurable decline in positive mentions could invalidate the current positive outlook. We are leveraging the latest crypto-specific market intelligence solutions to monitor the sentiment and narrative.

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How to buy WIF

1. Buying on a centralised exchange

• Step 1: Choose a centralised exchange
  • Popular centralised exchanges that list WIF include Binance, Kraken and MEXC.
• Step 2: Create and verify your account
  • Sign up for an account on the chosen exchange and go through the verification process, 
• Step 3: Deposit funds
  • Deposit funds into your exchange account. You can typically use bank transfers, credit/debit cards, or cryptocurrency transfers.
  • Check the exchange's supported payment methods if you are depositing fiat currency (like USD or EUR).
• Step 4: Buy WIF
  • Navigate to the trading section of the exchange.
  • Search for the WIF trading pair (e.g., WIF/USDT, WIF/SOL)
  • Decide on the amount of SOL you want to purchase and choose between a market or limit order.
    • Market order: Buy WIF at the current market price.
    • Limit order: Set a specific price at which you want to buy WIF. The order will be fulfilled once the market reaches your specified price.
  • Review the order details and confirm the purchase.
• Step 5: Withdraw WIF to your wallet
  • After purchasing WIF, it's a good practice to withdraw the tokens to a secure wallet like Phantom for safekeeping.

2. Buying via Phantom wallet

• Step 1: Install Phantom wallet
  • Download and install the Phantom wallet extension for your browser from the official Phantom website.
  • Create a new wallet or import an existing one using your recovery phrase.
• Step 2: Secure your wallet
  • Write down and securely store your recovery phrase. This phrase is crucial for recovering your wallet in case of loss or device failure.
• Step 3: Fund your Phantom wallet
  • Deposit WIF directly into your Phantom wallet by transferring it from a centralised exchange where you've purchased WIF.
  • Alternatively, deposit other Solana-supported tokens stablecoins like USDC or USDT if you plan to swap them for WIF.
• Step 4: Use the built-in swap feature
  • Open the Phantom wallet and navigate to the "Swap" tab.
  • Choose the token you wish to swap (e.g., USDC) and select WIF as the output.
  • Enter the amount you want to swap and review the transaction details, including the estimated network fees.
  • Confirm the transaction and approve it within the Phantom wallet.
• Step 5: Verify the transaction
  • Once the transaction is complete, you'll see the updated WIF balance in your Phantom wallet.

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Cryptonary's take

WIF has gone from underdog to top dog in less than a year. When we first covered WIF in December 2023, we knew it was a solid memecoin opportunity, but we were cautiously optimistic, and our first target was to see if it would cross the $1b market cap threshold. In fact, we framed WIF as a beta play to BONK, and if you had missed BONK at that time, WIF offered you a second chance to get on memecoins.

Three months later, it became obvious that we were wrong. WIF wasn't a beta play to BONK but a beta play to SOL. WIF has cemented its place as the leading memecoin in the Solana ecosystem, demonstrating one of the strongest growth and price action.

However, things have changed when market was hit by dispersion and growing macro economic concerns. We recommended taking profits and WIF is down over 50% since then. Whether it will reclaim its previous highs remains to be seen. We remain cautious on WIF at the moment and our focus is on preserving capital. You don't want to without dry powder when the next big opportunity comes around.

Cryptonary, OUT!

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Content ledger

• Dispersion and attention: Why are memecoins struggling?
• Cryptonary's State of The Memecoin Market Report
• The memecoin battleground: Organic vs corporate 'cabal'
• Corporate vs organic memecoins: Don't become exit liquidity for VCs
• WIF is heading to the moon: updated price targets
• WIF claims Cryptonary's target of $1 after 77 days!
• WTF is happening to WIF and  POPCAT?
• Here's why we think WIF will be unstoppable
• If you missed BONK, WIF offers you a second chance

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