Cryptonary's trade: ADA short setup - scenario-based play

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Market context

This is a scenario-based trade, meaning we're forecasting a potential outcome rather than reacting to current price action. If the crypto summit triggers some short-term bullish momentum, we could see ADA push into a key resistance zone. However, given macro conditions and the overall market structure, we don't expect a sustained breakout beyond prior resistance levels set on December 2nd.

Trade setup & risk management key resistance levels for shorts:

• $1.15
• $1.20
• $1.25

Execution plan - split risk

We're splitting the risk across these three levels. If you were to risk 3% total, you'd distribute it as:

• 1% at $1.15
• 1% at $1.20
• 1% at $1.25

This ensures a balanced entry across the resistance zone, improving execution and reducing exposure to front-running or missed fills.

Stop loss & risk-to-reward:

• Stop loss at $1.40, invalidating the trade if hit (This particular trade/Not the Thesis) It seems unlikely at the minute if this stop loss were to be hit ADA would have moved 45% to the upside from where we are.
• This setup offers an average of about 3:1 risk-to-reward on the downside move, making it a high-quality play if price gets there under the right conditions.

Trade rationale:

• Euphoric Buying & Market Exhaustion: If ADA pumps into this region on summit-driven excitement, larger players will likely start selling.
• Funding & Liquidity Conditions: If funding starts heating up and traders get over-leveraged on longs, the likelihood of rejection from resistance increases.
• Historical Resistance: Back on December 2nd, ADA faced less selling pressure than it does now. If the price couldn't push higher then, it's even less likely now under similar circumstances.

Contingency plan:

• If the price stops at $1.40, we reassess.
• Just because the price goes slightly beyond our levels doesn't mean the short idea is dead-we've seen this play out on BNB, where the price pushed past resistance before reversing.
• If there's exhaustion above $1.40, we can look for a re-entry.

Final Notes

• This is not a high-risk, all-in trade. It's a measured scenario-based play executed with a small allocation and proper risk management.
• Don't go too aggressive. The edge here comes from stacking shorts across levels, keeping risk small, and executing with discipline.
• If the summit doesn't bring bullish momentum and ADA doesn't push into the resistance zone, we simply don't take the trade.
• Our thesis is invalidated if the summit brings super bullish news regarding altcoins or ADA in particular.

If price does move into our levels and plays out correctly, this becomes a high-probability short, allowing us to capitalise on the market's inefficiencies while keeping risk tightly managed. We strongly discourage overleveraging after reading this setup. The trade needs to come to us and we are planning ahead of time. The wrong habits and tendencies could lead to your badges being re-evaluated for your own protection. We want you to win, not end up like all the other losers out there. Trust the process.

Cryptonary's, OUT!