2024 is a big year in many respects - Bitcoin is halving, global economics is looking arguably the best they have in half a decade, and Solana memecoins are making everyone fat bags. Let’s throw in a US general election in November, tard up some memecoins based on Trump and Biden, and see what happens.

Well, here we are three weeks later, with astronomical gains in a new sector that people are calling “PolitiFi.”

What is tremp?

What is boden?

We’ll fill you in on the new memecoin meta shredding charts on the left, right, and centre.

TLDR

• Solana "PolitiFi" memecoins like tremp and boden are making astronomical gains by tapping into US election narratives.
• doland Tremp's legendary community takeover and Trump memes have powered this token to a $46M market cap, but there is more upside ahead.
• jeo boden's hilariously fumbling Biden memes have snowballed to a $120M market cap, dominating the sector. How high could this fly?
• Anti-crypto Elizabeth Warren is being mercilessly memed by whoren, a niche token capitalising on her anti-crypto rhetorics.
• With the election hitting a fever pitch, the timely reflexivity of these assets provides prime opportunities to profit from the tribal nature of U.S. elections.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. 

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The meta-narrative on PolitiFi meme coins 

If you’ve been keeping up with the Solana memecoin market, you’ll undoubtedly have heard of doland tremp and jeo boden. These tokens are based on two memeable political characters and normie’s social media platforms. 

Whether it’s Biden making a meal of a speech or Trump saying something outlandish, they both have very long histories (literally), and countless memes have been retweeted/liked billions of times over the years.

Easily recognisable, and a large portion of the world’s population will understand most memes - a huge addressable market. 

Therefore, it stands to reason that the OG memecoins, based on them, are two of the top performers this year, not only in the meme space but in the wider market.

• boden has a market cap of ~$120 million - up over 300,000% since the 6th of March.
• doland tremp is sitting at a ~$46 million, a 230,000%+ increase since the 28th of February.

Currently, the relationship and hierarchy of the “sector” (if you can call it that; we’ve seen the term PolitiFi being thrown around) appear to be boden acting as a sort of market leader.

When boden sneezes teh hole sektor caches a kold.

Election narrative

With the US elections coming up across all branches of the government, over and above the fact that the memes are hilarious, there is a clear narrative for the success of these tokens.

The political spectrum in the US is essentially a choice between Democrats and Republicans.

Part of the reason for these tokens' success is the polarised state of politics (like backing a football team). 

This has been a long-standing trend and is nothing new, but we see that it plays a part in the current narrative.

Crypto holders love being part of a maxi tribe - even more so if their on-chain tribe relates to their personal life and the “tribe” (party) they intend to vote for in the coming elections. 

All of this translates into the perfect degen storm, ripe for exploitation by savvy investors.

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jeo boden ($BODEN)

Playing into the World Trade Organisation's “you’ll own nothing, and you’ll be happy” controversy, boden has been fumbling around the market as sharply as ever with some outstanding content. 

The snowball effect is very real, and after a certain point, people just start posting meme content of their own accord for clout.

“Are you holdin any boden?”

The social phenomenon for these tokens is basically the same phenomenon that gets people to follow celebs religiously. Some people follow Taylor Swift or Kim K—degens follow boden, tremp, and the gang.

Biden's reach as leader of the free world is second only to the chokehold boden has had on Twitter/X these last weeks. 

We no longer need Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal to tell us how Biden is doing in the polls—just check the chart, bro.

Social numbers

The bodensol Twitter account has 95,027 followers and has added between 500-1000 new followers per day over the last week on average.

The numbers are healthy, and the followers gained/lost reflect the green/red days for boden, which suggests organic followers and not bots. 

In terms of holders, boden has 18,416, with no single wallet holding more than 3% of supply - a healthy metric, and one you’d expect for an MCap of this size.

Boden has 18,416 holders at the time of writing, which is in line with the amount of followers on Twitter in terms of metrics - not everyone is a holder, there just here for the memes, but they represent future customers.

Valuation

As with all memes, it’s hard to value sentiment - all we can say is higher. But no, as we approach the election and assume the market plays ball, there’s no reason this should be lower than $1.25-$1.5 billion as a base case bordering on a minimum case.

For the bull case, as is the case with tremp, we anticipate a huge pump on the winner of the election cycle.

If Biden wins, and the crypto market looks okay/good, it could easily reach $10 billion for a few days as degens scramble to capitalise. 

So, we have a:

• $1.80-2 base case price target for boden, or a 9x from here.
• $14.50 bull case price target, a ~72x from here.

Analysis

Boden has identified a key range between the prices of 0.1500 and 0.2000.

We have had intraday candlesticks rejecting to the downside, which tells us there is more buying pressure than selling pressure in and around this region, which is positive for price action.

The current price action is pretty dense and congested, which is normal for an asset that remains at high prices after rapid growth, as we have seen in Boden.

The longer we stay at these prices, the more the market gets used to it psychologically, and it gives time for more capital to flow in and for holders to get more comfortable and hold.' We want to now see the bulls win and break out the top of this range, which would be very positive for this asset.

boden contract address: 3psH1Mj1f7yUfaD5gh6Zj7epE8hhrMkMETgv5TshQA4o

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doland tremp ($TREMP)

The tremp community has gone hard with the doland memes; some of them are seriously impressive (and funny af).

This is what led to its success after the community takeover at the end of February. 

Yes, the OG team dumped their tokens early, essentially rugging the project, and the community were like “nope” and grew tremp to the highs it’s at today. 

I mean, look at this

We should put an advisory in here - most community takeovers are either the same team trying to pump price again to milk the token twice or malicious actors looking to drive funds into a “community” wallet for “marketing”, usually under the ploy of paying for Dexscreener trending or for paying shill groups to post them on their Telegram. 

99% of the time, the guy usually runs away with something like 3 SOL, thinking he’s some sort of criminal mastermind.

If you always go with the assumption that everyone’s trying to steal your money, you won’t go wrong.

But, tremp stands as a “fairytale” community takeover, and for those looking for the “model” takeover, this is it.

Social numbers

Tremp has 10,596 Twitter followers, and while that’s not necessarily a large number, you need to appreciate that the account was created on Feb 27. In addition, the project has been adding an average of 330 new followers per day since then. If the Twitter following continues to grow, then this will be a decent proxy to know that the meme is still strong and thriving. We will continue to monitor this.

It will also be interesting to see how the  Twitter following reflects in the holder number. 

Right now, tremp has 18,853 holders, with no individual wallet holding more than 2.1% of the supply. The key would be seeing the holders’ number grow, at least at the same pace as the Twitter following. 

Valuation

Given tremp is in the same boat as boden as the “official” representation of Trump on Solana, it’s hard to envision a market cap of less than $1 billion purely through association with Trump. 

Similar to boden's valuation, we would be looking for a $10 billion market cap bull case if Trump wins the presidency, although this would be short-lived, in our opinion.

Therefore:

• Our base case estimation would be ~$10 per tremp, an 18x from here.
• The bull case would be $100 per tremp, a 180x from here.

Analysis

Tremp has been growing in a really nice, positive, sustainable manner, considering it's a meme.

It provides a nice bullish trend line with a strong angle and is currently respecting the level of 0.4000, which has actually been the bottom of a pretty key range. This level was identified as a key price point for this market, and the continued failures to trade above it formed resistance.

Now, we are seeing newfound demand in this region, as you can see by the rejections to the downside. This is positive for price action; seeing this range holding on.

Once we break to the upside above 0.5770, we could see much further growth.

tremp contract address: FU1q8vJpZNUrmqsciSjp8bAKKidGsLmouB8CBdf8TKQv

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elizabath whoren ($WHOREN)

Whoren stems from the controversial figure Elizabeth Warren, who has been vocal about her distaste for the crypto market and is a full-blown activist against anything blockchain. 

Of course, whoren is the antithesis of Warren- for many, this is how we show regulators we don’t give a fuck. 

In a world where people like Warren see crypto as a fundamental risk to the financial system, be a Whoren.

Fiat currencies ARE for money laundering. 

The message might be crude, but we think it’s funny, and clearly, many agree. Elizabeth’s stance as an antagonistic figure toward the Fed drives many of these memes. Many in the crypto space have been closely following Federal Reserve developments. Still, it is quite a niche (not many normies will care what she has to say), yet she holds a place as one of the most memeable figures in crypto. 

For example, her stance that the Fed was too aggressive in printing money after COVID, combined with the WIF narrative, led to this meme.

This is the case for most of the successful tokens in this sector—the memes write themselves because the characters have a pre-created narrative through their real-life actions.

Some degen artist must come along and make the “comic”.

Warren is running for Senator again in 2024, and as the campaign cycle heats up, she will inevitably start playing the “crypto bad” card to gain votes.

The thesis is that this will lead to further criticism from the crypto space --  so you can expect whoren to react positively. 

Whoren also has the advantage of being a relative newcomer on the scene, but still early enough that the token could be considered one of the “OGs” down the line. 

Social numbers

WhorenOnSol has a Twitter follower account of 3.979, with a daily average gain akin to Boden’s. 

The holder count for whoren is 10,465, which is excellent considering the Twitter following - it suggests the 10k hodlers are representative of the on-chain “activists” and not the mainstream average joe. 

In terms of holders, no holder has above 3%, which is a bullish metric as there is less chance of a huge supply being dumped/rugged onto the market.

Valuation

With an FDV of $15 million, whoren is the lowest cap on the list but also benefits greatly from the election cycle narrative. What sets her apart from the others is that she has a firm stance on crypto and is actively lobbying against us. 

Normies will buy boden or tremp - those who know what Warren is all about will buy whoren. 

Given her niche anti-celebrity status within crypto, we don’t think whoren will reach the same levels as boden and tremp. However, for a ballpark figure, we would be looking for at least a $300 million market cap as a proxy figure in the election narrative.

This represents a price of $3 per whoren, a ~20x from here.

Analysis

With Whoren, the market reached 0.1700, topped out, and sold off pretty drastically.

The recovery is very positive, and we are now approaching all-time highs again on this asset.

Very solid, structured price action has brought about this recovery.

Keep an eye on the all-time high; once we break out of this into price discovery, it could bring around a lot of new participants.

Another thing to note is that we have created a newfound range in the market between the prices of 0.17 and 0.25, with 0.25 being the new ceiling.

If the price can break above and continue this solid structure, it's very positive.

whoren contract address: EF23Avq2cTPnMVTfHacZ3SG5Z8misHmFA2gbt2rKqiYH

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Cryptonary’s take 

The election is on November 5th, later this year. Regardless of your take on U.S. elections, there’s money to be made from tribal sentiments.

As the election ramps up, expect a resurgence in these tokens (they won’t run forever and have already experienced several pullbacks).

Other catalysts to look out for would be important speeches by someone relevant to the token or a controversial tweet.

Our advice, if you are dabbling in these tokens, is to ensure you are following the news and any relevant pages associated with the public figure in question to potentially front-run the herd.

It’s a highly reflexive sector, and very much a case of “no press is bad press” because it will be meme’d either way. It’ll all be meme’d, and memes sell.

Expect the new President (tremp or boden) to pump even higher once it becomes clear who wins—but that point would probably mark the top for this category of memecoins. But until the election is decided, there will be plenty of shenanigans and volatility to count on between now and then.

PolitiFi will be a valuable sector for memes, at least for the next eight months.

Cryptonary, OUT.