Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

 

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1) A Big Drop in Future Sell Pressure

For months, the number being repeated across the market (largely due to misinterpreted data from Tokenomist) was around $300 million in monthly unlocks. That figure created the idea that constant, heavy sell pressure was unavoidable.

But in reality, things have played out very differently. The actual unlock amounts have been far lower than what many expected. In January, unlocks were estimated at roughly $31–$40 million, already a fraction of the feared $300 million.

Now, February is set to see only around $4 million in unlocks, which is about a 90% drop compared to January.

This is a major shift in market dynamics. Large unlock expectations often keep buyers on the sidelines because no one wants to step in front of a heavy supply. However, after seeing the actual numbers, many market participants adjusted their thesis.

2) HIP-3 Is Showing Real Product-Market Fit

HIP-3 ("Builder-Deployed Perpetuals") is the October 2025 mainnet upgrade that made permissionless perpetual futures markets possible on Hyperliquid's HyperCore infrastructure.

HIP-3 is arguably the most important structural unlock for Hyperliquid yet. It shifts the protocol from "we list what we think is good" → "the market decides what deserves liquidity".

We are now seeing strong signals that it actually works:

• HIP-3 total open interest reaching all-time highs of $790M–$935M (up from ~$260M a month earlier).
• Daily HIP-3 volume pushing $1.4B–$1.8B at peaks.
• Silver frequently ranks in the top 3 most traded assets on the entire platform (often behind only BTC and ETH).
• Boom in commodities (especially precious metals acting as safe-haven / inflation-hedge plays) has helped Hyperliquid capture a meaningful share of on-chain TradFi-style derivatives

3) Assistance Fund continues to buy $2m-$3m of HYPE daily

The Assistance Fund directs ~97–99% of protocol fees (after builder shares) directly into open-market purchases of HYPE. This creates a mechanical, volume-linked buy pressure that's independent of market sentiment.

Even as new perp DEXs (Aster, Lighter, EdgeX, etc.) have gained some traction in late 2025 / early 2026, Hyperliquid's revenue engine is still dominant: roughly ~$1b in annualized buybacks

Furthermore, a major competitor (Lighter) recently saw its trading volumes fall after completing an airdrop.

This is what we expected: users farm rewards → incentives end → activity drops → Hyperliquid remains the king.

4) New Features Could Expand the Market

HIP-4 introduces native outcome trading (prediction markets, bounded options, event contracts) on HyperCore. It’s currently live on testnet (announced early February 2026) and is one of the clearest ways to gain exposure to the strong 2026 prediction markets narrative.

In our 2026 outlook, we highlighted that prediction markets will continue to be a strong narrative this year. But there is no clear way to position to this new wave. With HIP4, HYPE becomes one of the easiest ways to bet on prediction markets

This is also expected to bring new volumes and revenue because now it will be possible to run different option and outcome-based strategies for large funds and professional traders.

HIP-4 opens the door to entirely new user cohorts:

• Macro & event-driven hedge funds
• Professional options desks
• Institutional players seeking on-chain event exposure without counterparty risk
• Developers building novel outcome-based products

Even modest adoption could add billions in monthly notional volume, especially from macro funds, options desks, and event-driven traders. Combined with existing HIP-3 momentum and $2–5M+ daily buybacks, HIP-4 can take Hyperliquid to the next level.

Cryptonary’s take:

We believe HYPE is one of the true gems of this cycle.

The price action is already doing the talking. While BTC, ETH, and SOL have struggled to hold momentum, HYPE is showing relative strength and has outperformed all three over the last few weeks.

Looking ahead, the next wealth-generating rallies (AI, DeFi, any new narrative) might come from this ecosystem.

It’s still early to make that call, but we’re watching closely...