A thesis on how DogWifHat (WIF) gets to $88

This is the Memecoin Supercycle; love them or hate them, memes are the stars of this show. And of all the memecoins in the market, WIF has established itself as the crown jewel. 

We identified WIF as a top winner back in December, and our call to invest at an average entry price of $0.003 has resulted in an astonishing 85,000%+ return, equating to a whopping 860x increase since our initial entries.

If you didn't quite believe in memes in December 2023 when we started the gospel of WIF, or if you are new to Cryptonary or memes, it is easy to feel you've missed the boat. While that is rational, if we've learned anything about memes, this is the arena of irrational optimism. 

If WIF were to replicate DOGE's success, it could reach a price of $88 per coin – another 55x or at least 5000% upside ahead. But how is this even remotely possible? 

Well, let's dive in!

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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A quick recap on WIF

What is WIF?

It is "literally just a dog wif a hat." 

That's it! No secret sauce! No special tech! No team! No roadmap!

It makes no promises. It WON'T advance the frontiers of civilisation; it CAN'T activate a paradigm shift at the intersection of finance and technology; it is NOT a next-gen anything. 

It is just a dog wearing a hat!

But let's get serious!

Simply put, WIF is a memecoin. 

Memecoins are a type of speculative asset that gained significant attention during the 2013 bull run with the arrival of DOGE. They got super popular during the 2017 bull run, with the likes of Shiba, Floki, and Pepe getting into the limelight. You can read up about the origin of memes in our Introduction to the Memecoin Supercycle.

Understanding the WIF meme

WIF is a dog-inspired memecoin, similar to Dogecoin (DOGE). There has been a profound relationship between humans and dogs for thousands of years, rooted in companionship, loyalty, and shared experiences. 

Dogs have evolved from wild animals into our closest companions, offering unconditional love, protection, and a sense of belonging. This bond transcends time and culture, and it's no surprise that dog-themed memecoins tap into this primal connection.

These dog-themed memecoins create a sense of fun, community, and shared identity among holders by evoking the deep emotional ties we share with our canine friends. WIF, with its playful and endearing image of a dog wearing a hat, is a reflection of the simple joys and whimsical moments that dogs bring into our lives. 

In a world increasingly dominated by technology and complexity, WIF reminds us that sometimes, the most valuable things are those that bring a smile to our faces and connect us with others in the most human of ways.

Again, WIF is a joke but a valuable joke nonetheless.  

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The bullish case for WIF

WIF is one of our best-performing memes for the 2024/2025 cycle and it is uniquely positioned to continue to outperform the rest of the market as the bull run continues.

• Market potential 

WIF (DogWifHat) stands out as one of the few organic memecoins in the market that has successfully achieved what many refer to as "escape velocity." This means has reached a level of growth and independence, making continued success likely without constant external support. 

The price action of WIF further underscores its appeal. Despite experiencing multiple sharp corrections where it lost over 80% of its value, WIF has consistently demonstrated a strong ability to recover and quickly reach new all-time highs. This relative stability had made WIF widely regarded as the safest option with the maximum upside potential, making it a prime candidate for capitalising on the anticipated memecoin supercycle.

And that's the opportunity – retail is coming!

The appeal of memecoins like WIF is a function of their simplicity and accessibility, making them particularly attractive to retail investors. These investors find memecoins easy to understand, engage with, buy, and hold. Let's be frank; when new people come into crypto, most of them aren't typically coming because of the technology. They usually come with the expectation of making money.

Understanding hard-core concepts like liquid staking, scaling solutions, and zero-knowledge technology is just too much work for such people. But when you talk about what retail participants can intuitively "get"—well, the dog just has a hat! 

• The Solana factor

The market performance has been strong within the Solana ecosystem, where WIF resides, and WIF has emerged as the leading memecoin.

 The best part is that Solana positions itself as the blockchain for the masses. When the masses come to Solana and want an asset that they can easily understand, WIF takes the top spot. This synergy between WIF and Solana could lead to increased adoption and usage, driving the coin's value upward. WIF distinguishes itself as one of the strongest meme coins in this cycle. Its community-driven approach and the sheer number of active holders contribute to its unique appeal. 

The current market dynamics also favour WIF. The memecoin supercycle has generated significant investor interest, with many looking for the next big opportunity. With its strong community, strategic position within the Solana ecosystem, and viral potential, WIF is well-placed to attract these investors.

Its network effects are robust, drawing recognition and support from diverse sources, including crypto-specific communities, venture capitalists, hedge funds, and entities from traditional financial markets.

• A dog without equals

Unlike many other memecoins, WIF has experienced organic growth from day one. This sets it apart in a market often driven by hype and short-term speculation. The lack of insider control and the wide distribution of WIF across over 180,000 unique wallets underscore its genuinely decentralised distribution. 

This distribution ensures that the supply is owned by the community, not manipulated by scammy influencers or celebrities looking to make a quick profit.

WIF's growth trajectory and community-centric approach have earned it the status of a blue-chip meme coin in the crypto space. Despite its memecoin status, It is no longer a high-risk investment but one of the safest memecoins in the market to capitalise on memecoin supercycle. The narrative strongly favours memecoins over fundamentally strong altcoins in the current crypto cycle.

While many altcoins are built on strong fundamentals and technological advancements, the current market sentiment leans towards memecoins. 

This cycle's preference for memecoins over fundamentally strong altcoins underscores the importance of community and narrative in driving value. 

As a result, WIF has eaten a lot of capital and liquidity from other altcoins' market cap, outperforming even the best altcoins this cycle so far. We expect this trend to continue.

But the most important factor of all is that the dog has a hat.

WIF is not a blind gamble

As we've said times before, the argument that memecoins lack fundamentals is not entirely true – they have fundamentals, but the fundamentals are just different from the ones you use for traditional assets. Here are some of WIF's incredible fundamentals.

• Holder count

To be fair, WIF has established itself as a top dog, and its holder count is a de facto part of its appeal. Yet, we couldn't help but notice that the holder count has consistently stayed positive even when price action is in the red. With almost 180k holders, WIF boasts a broad-based distribution that creates a virtuous cycle for bringing in more holders as positions of current holders become increasingly profitable. 

• Strong volumes

Holders alone mean nothing, especially if they are paper hands who exit their positions at the first sign of trouble. One factor that shows that WIF has a solid foundation to make incredible highs during this bull run is the holder behaviour we noticed when the coin wicked down to a local low of $1.14 at a $1.1B market cap on August 5. 

On most days, WIF's market cap is often about 2x larger than its trading volumes on August 5; it socred record volumes of $1.34b as people considered WIF at $1.14 a bargain too good to be missed to rapidly buy up the dip. Whatever happens between here and the peak of the bull market, you can be rest assured that irrespective of the short-term volatility, the general direction is upwards and northbound inasmuch as WIF doesn't dip below $1.14.

It is in the top 20 list of coins with the largest volume in the entire crypto market, excluding stablecoins. It is the only Solana memecoin on that list, and depending on when you check, it sometimes has more volumes than SHIB or PEPE.

• Social sentiment

WIF is an organic memecoin that has naturally gained traction within the crypto community. Its rise in popularity has been driven by genuine interest and engagement from users rather than heavy marketing, insider deals or promotional efforts. Organic memes are less likely to experience price manipulations and insider tricks

WIF is designed to be a fun, engaging cryptocurrency that fosters a strong sense of community. The meme-inspired nature of the coin, featuring a playful dog wearing a hat, makes it appealing to a broad audience, particularly those who enjoy the humorous and social aspects of the crypto space.

• Strong community

WIF connects people and unites them under a common banner of enjoyment and shared love for dogs. Dogs are one of the most popular domestic pets, and many people love and relate to them. 

WIF's original developer abandoned the project, and the coin evolved into a pure community play. This shift places the project's fate entirely in the hands of its holders, who actively promote and vibe with the meme on the internet, strengthening WIF's network through their efforts. 

This decentralised approach means that WIF's development and promotion are democratic and organic, reflecting the collective will of its members.

A core principle of WIF is its fair and well-distributed nature. This ensures that a wide range of participants can access and benefit from the cryptocurrency, promoting decentralisation and reducing the risk of manipulation by a small group of holders. It has no insiders, VCs, or teams. Simple, fair, and effective distribution. 

With close to 180,000 wallets holding WIF, the community is both large and potentially powerful. Each holder contributes to the project's growth and stability by engaging in grassroots marketing. 

Valuation exercise + price targets

We've already established that WIF is a beta blay to SOL.

WIF caught fire to smash through the $1B market cap from around a $340 market within 5 days. It made that $1 target 77 days after we officially wrote the report. And then, it went on to make an all-time high of $4.83 less than one month later.

WIF is currently trading around $1.60, down ~66% from its ATH, but what does the future hold for this coin? 

Let's dive into the updated numbers.

• Current situation: 
  • SOL price: $145
  • WIF price: $1.60
  • WIF Market cap: $1.4b

Our updated model, with more historical data and five months more data than we had in March, suggests a beta coefficient of 1.77, while the p-value is roughly 0 (very strong evidence). 

Our last 2 models had...