Many people have PTSD from investing in NFTs and gaming tokens last cycle  – the jpegs jokes are still running on crypto Twitter. Fair play - most projects promised the world and delivered less than nothing.

But there's a new kid in that neighbourhood: ERC-404 tokens and, of course, the Solana variant - SPL-22.

Our thesis is simple: people will want to flex their WIF gains at some point; obscenely priced NFTs are the usual method. 

But this time around, you might be able to profit from the flex without actually flexing.

TLDR

• SPL-22 is a new token standard on Solana that combines fungible and non-fungible tokens in novel ways.
• While still very early, SPL-22 is being hyped as Solana's potential "next narrative" that could revive interest in GameFi and NFTs.
• The report profiles four "early bets" on different use cases and opportunities within the SPL-22 ecosystem.
• One project is a token tied to the current leading DEX for trading SPL-22 tokens.
• Another was the first-ever project utilising SPL-22, acting as an initial proof-of-concept.
• A hybrid protocol exemplifies the symbiotic token/NFT dynamic enabled by SPL-22's model.
• A gamified project leans into the reminting capabilities of switching between SPL-22 tokens and NFTs.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. "One Glance" by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. These are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

Solana has been tearing it up

Ethereum's ERC-404 is a new token standard that allows an asset to be concurrently fungible and non-fungible.

We've already talked about it; click here to get up to speed.

Many ecosystems have implemented this new standard (their version) on their chains.

Never to be left behind, Solana's version of this new token standard is the SPL-22 standard.

Now, we all know Solana is the high-tech hub of crypto. With SOL ripping through the charts, it makes sense that Solana's iteration - SPL-22 - has been creating the most traction among this new class of assets.

We are still early

The sector is currently dominated by NFT-like projects at face value. 

If you take these projects at face value, they look like any other Solana NFT launch. No one cares about the tech—until the price moves. 

We haven't seen much action in the NFT space in general, so the performance of SPL-22 tokens has been lacklustre. 

However, that is precisely why we are covering them - brand new sector and brand new tech backed by Solana.

YOU ARE EARLY!!!

Let's dive in!

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FluxBeam

FluxBeam is the decentralised exchange with the most SPL-22 activity right now. It was the flag carrier for the Token2022 standard and is now the flag carrier for the new SPL-22 standard. 

Built during the bear period in 2023, the FluxBeam team saw a problem, got their heads down, and fixed it. 

They launched a free-use protocol without a token, which is unfortunate. Although we will still put in volume in the off-chance they will do an airdrop in the future.

FluxBeam being the main port of call for those trading SPL-22 tokens means that, for now, we can use their stats as a health gauge for this sector. 

The TVL stats back up the hype - zero to hero in a few months. 

In addition to their DEX, they launched a Telegram trading bot called FluxBot and a FLUXB token.

FLUXB is an attractive by-proxy token instead of a FluxBeam token. Solana is currently promoting SPL-22 adoption, and FluxBot is a triple-fold bet on Telegram trading bots, SPL-22, and FluxBeam DEX.

However, with an FDV of ~$50 million, there are potentially better places at the moment to allocate capital. 

But if SPL-22 continues down this path, FLUXB will be right up there at the top of the food chain. 

Here's the contract address for FLUXB if this sounds like a bet you'll want to place. FLUXBmPhT3Fd1EDVFdg46YREqHBeNypn1h4EbnTzWERX

Analysis

FLUXB has made higher lows with the incline trendline (yellow line) until now, but a lower high was registered last. The inverse head-and-shoulder pattern forms, possibly leading to a breakout below the yellow trendline. A bullish case would be a bounce from that trendline and movement higher.

However, a break below the yellow trendline could lead to a retest of the first green box, followed by the second green box, depending on the intensity of the correction. Our bias is towards a correction because the volumes were very weak on the upside price action.

Price target

Considering FLUXB is consolidating, we'll take the $0.07 level (1st retest range) as the entry price. 

This equates to a $35 million FDV.

Based on sustained FluxBeam TVL growth at the same rate (or better), a reasonable valuation for FLUXB is around the $200 million FDV region. This seems low, but ultimately, it's a token related to the FluxBeam DEX, not the actual DEX token.

This relates to a price of $0.4 per FLUXB.

Entering FLUXB at $0.07 gives you a reasonable shot at a 6x upside.

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Gh0st

GH0ST was the first project to use the new SPL-22 token standard. It launched as a proof of concept, championing the idea of making fair token launches even fairer. 

The collection, consisting of 21,000 NFTs, each holding 1000 GH0ST tokens, was launched to showcase the capabilities of this new token standard.

Removing the need for secondary infrastructure and token extensions (also known as Token2022, from which SPL-22 is derived) significantly reduces minting costs, as NFT mints no longer have to transact using Metaplex on mint. 

Additionally, adding a built-in fee to each mint enhances the user experience for new minters and their relationship with the project. The funds from this fee go directly to the token LP, increasing the liquidity available for trading new tokens immediately. 

The beauty is that, through SPL-22, all token launches, whether NFTs or fungible tokens, can be executed similarly by changing a few parameters (fee %, etc.).

In terms of tokenomics, GH0ST has an FDV of $4.1 million. If FluxBeam is the flagship DEX, GH0ST is the pioneer coin of SPL-22.

Here's the contract address for GH0ST - HbxiDXQxBKMNJqDsTavQE7LVwrTR36wjV2EaYEqUw6qH

Analysis

Straight forward for Ghost.

Price action has been dead for a while, but the token is continuously bouncing from the order block, from which it initially skyrocketed. Now, technically, the green box is a good range to build a position, i.e., between 0.066 and $0.17. Trading volume is currently 10% of the total market cap, meaning it can pump hard if it pumps now.

Price target

Given its novel status, from the current price of $0.194, we anticipate GH0ST reclaiming all-time highs of around $1.2 as a base case. 

This places the FDV at $25.2 million - 6.2x from the current prices. 

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BOZO

Bozo is a hybrid NFT/token ala DeFi protocol and showcases (with a slick UI) the concept of SPL-22. 

Each of the 1000 NFTs was minted with a token supply of 800,000 BOZO. The NFTs can be minted and dismantled freely, as can be seen below:

Interestingly, as NFTs are destroyed, the tokens are distributed to x buyers. To then acquire enough tokens to reconstitute and mint a new NFT, the buyer has to purchase a new batch of 1000 BOZO. At some point, buying the tokens and minting the NFT becomes profitable.

It could be the case that the NFT floor naturally dumps. This creates demand for BOZO, leveraging both parts of the SPL-22 infrastructure to create an internal supply and demand system that is also influenced by outside market forces.

Out of all the projects we looked at, BOZO provided the best visualisation and comprehensive explanation for the utility of SPL-22.

BOZO is one of the more established protocols, with an FDV of $17.4 million.

Here's the contract address for BOZO - EJPtJEDogxzDbvM8qvAsqYbLmPj5n1vQeqoAzj9Yfv3q

Analysis

BOZO’s daily chart is breaking away from consolidation.

On March 4, the price breached and closed above the previous 11 days, but on March 5, the price action did not follow through with bullish pressure. The January 31st liquidity wick was completely absorbed during the recent consolidation, which is a good sign for a rally. 

However, today's candle needs to keep pushing up. RSI is also slightly above 50 for now, but it's not a clear sign of bullish pressure.

The token may catapult to previous highs if the price breaks above the red box.

Price target

Given the gamification of the relationship between the token and the NFT, BOZO has a good chance of encouraging people to dismantle their NFTs to cash out once the price increases. The same people will likely be moved to rebuy the token higher to mint the NFT once the floor becomes attractive. 

This relationship, in perpetuity, benefits BOZO more than the NFT - the current floor price is ~$26,000; which are you more likely to buy?

If you want to flex your gains from WIF, you buy an NFT that costs $26,000 - or better yet, buy $21,000 worth of BOZO and mint your own personal NFT.

BOZO selling pressure from NFT destruction is already levelling out, and the token price is beginning to reflect that. 

We would be taking a shot in the dark here, but based on the "premium" price of the NFT, which should become a talking point, a reasonable bull case TP for BOZO would be around the $200 million FDV mark.

This represents a token price of $0.25, or an 11.5x.

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The wildcard - MutantMon (MUTANT)

We don't have to explain where MutantMon got their inspiration - Nintendo is seething.

MutantMon is another SPL-22 launch, hybridising SPL-20 tokens and Token22 NFT standards.

If anyone ever played Pokemon, the breeding part required constant trips to the old freakshow man at the daycare to pop out eggs. The resulting Pokemon would have a combination of stats from both parents. 

MutantMons stand out because they're heavily pushing SPL-22's remint capability. That is, dismantling an existing NFT into fungible tokens, then re-combining those (or other) fungible tokens into a new NFT mint to create a brand new MutantMon. 

This becomes highly addictive - people have chased the "meta" builds in every game since the beginning of games. 

It adds a new layer of utility and novelty to the GameFi space. 

Previously, most gamers would be priced out of getting the best gear/NFTs. Now, there's a chance they can generate one of the best tokens, levelling the playing field.

Putting time into a game should be as significant as pouring cash in. 

MUTANT is the fungible token for MutantMon, with an FDV of $2.2 million. 

Again, MUTANT is one of the early adopters of SPL-22 but is more focused on the gaming side of things - which is probably to its detriment until it proves itself due to the dismal performance of games in the last run. 

Here's the contract address for MUTANT - mmonechkLNdUxDbvP9Yntwo459QfUmqDdzV95DNvnr6

We won't give a price target here since it's a game. We mostly mentioned it as a use case because one of our researchers will be playing it.

Price target

It isn't easy to set a price target for these projects. Although the price of the NFT is directly related to the token price, and vice versa, which do buyers value more?

Naturally, we gravitate toward the fungible token side - the headline.

SPL-22 presents a challenge in that really no one has any idea how the dynamic between the fungible and non-fungible tokens will play out - but the narrative has as good a chance as any 

We are playing these like all other memes -  secure the initial bag and ride the wave.

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Cryptonary's take

The SPL-22 sector is being lumped in with the NFT sector because most current projects have launched an NFT along with the token.

 People see the artwork and the marketing and have no reason to believe otherwise - it looks like nothing new. 

But it is new, and at this stage in the market, it's really a case of finding the next narrative and investing in it. 

Your returns (or losses) are a function of how right (or wrong) you were about it.

We think we're right about SPL-22 - it might be early, but it's worth a punt.

The market loves new things, but under a barrage of new things, golden tickets often have to wait till the garbage is binned.

The best time to position for that big win is before it trends on Twitter. It's like buying land in Manhattan in the 1800s. 

One of two things will happen with SPL22. You'll either make a ton of money, and people will praise you for your foresight, or you'll be stuck with duds, and normies will laugh at you the same way they laugh at NFT bros.

What are you comfortable with? You decide.

Cryptonary, OUT!