WAGMI or NGMI: The 2024 elections could pump or sink crypto

As the political landscape transforms before our eyes, the stakes for the future of finance couldn't be higher. The battle for financial privacy and freedom rages on the world stage, with crypto as both a weapon and a prize. While governments scramble to contain this digital wildfire, we stand at a crossroads that could redefine wealth, privacy, and power for generations.

The choices made in the coming months will determine not just who sits on the throne but also shape the very future of money itself.

This goes far beyond having a crypto-friendly candidate pump our bags.

Here's why the outcome of this political powder keg should matter to every citizen of the digital age...

Key questions

• How does a 30-year-old manifesto still shape crypto's rebellious spirit today?
• How might an assassination attempt reshape the 2024 crypto landscape?
• With the president out, who's whispering "crypto" in Kamala's ear?
• The "Crypto President": Is Trump's bold claim just campaign hype, or something far bigger?
• UK Power Shift: Could Labour's surprise victory actually be good news for crypto enthusiasts?
• What does rising anti-federalist sentiment mean for crypto's regulatory future in the EU?

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. 

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Let's revisit the Cypherpunk movement

One of the founding ethos that inspired Satoshi to create Bitcoin was the Cypherpunk movement. 

This group of computer scientists built a community that discussed cryptography, math, politics, and philosophy. And one of the most iconic pieces of documentation they developed was the Cypherpunk's Manifesto.

Now, for those unfamiliar with the concepts laid out, here's a TLDR:

• Privacy is as much a human right as freedom of speech.
• Privacy should be trustless - and should include simple things like purchasing items.
• The manifesto uses the simple example that there is no need for the person behind the cash register to know who I am when I purchase something with cash. 
• Cryptography is the way forward.

Here's a short excerpt, but if you have a minute, read the entire thing.

This was written in 1993. When something remains relevant after 30 years—especially in tech—it's fair to call it a masterpiece. 

But why does all this matter?

What's your business with the Cypherpunk movement?

The relationship between the Cypherpunk movement, cryptocurrency, and the political landscape is profound and foundational. 

With their deep-seated belief in privacy and decentralised power, the Cypherpunks laid the ideological groundwork that underpins today's cryptocurrency ethos. As the 2024 elections approach, the crypto community and its support for pro-crypto candidates is, in essence, carrying forward the torch lit by the Cypherpunks decades ago.

But who's holding us back?

The current political landscape 

UK

A couple of weeks ago, the Conservative government lost the general election (the worst loss ever by the Conservatives) to the Labour Party. 

The previous Conservative government under Sunak was pro-crypto, releasing many publications and reviews on what future regulation may look like. 

Labour shares these views, citing the potentially transformative role that digital assets will play in the future. For example, they are pro-digitalisation of securities (RWAs) and are likely to be more liberal in their regulatory approach to crypto. 

The Labour government's official stance on CBDCs differs from the Conservatives, with a significantly more cautious approach for fear of potential government overreach. We see this as a benefit for crypto in general, and we believe the regulations put in place over the next few years in the UK will be less prohibitive in scope than would otherwise have been implemented under a Conservative government. 

Europe 

In Europe, the rise in popularity of right-leaning parties, especially in France, Germany, and Italy, is as much a response to illegal immigration as it is to perceived EU overreach. As we know, the EU has been militantly against crypto. 

However, parties like the ECR, who are soft Eurosceptics, have been growing in power within the EU parliament. This increase in popularity stems from the growing general view that the EU is coming for the sovereignty of the individual member states. They are staunch anti-Federalists, opposing further attempts to turn the EU into a federal entity like the United States.

They view the EU as lacking competitiveness due to massive overreach by EU regulation in many sectors of the economy, and they believe that these regulations are chipping away at their home nations' ability to be competitive in the global economy.

Their rise has the possibility of reversing some of the damage done by the anti-crypto/innovation-sceptics who have gone too far with regulation, not just in crypto but in other sectors of the economy, especially technology.

US: TREMP shot, and Biden drops out

One of the most historically significant events of the 2020s happened last weekend - Trump was shot.

The implications for the US elections are enormous—this has turned Trump into a martyr, essentially. For crypto, it is hard to deny that the market has responded positively- Tremp took the lead again among PolitiFi coins. Additionally, Trump is due to speak at a Bitcoin event in Nashville on July 27th—something he has since reaffirmed just today. 

The immediate sentiment in the market was that Trump's chances of winning the election had improved significantly. His pro-crypto stance and seemingly staunch support for Bitcoin, exemplified by his attendance at Bitcoin 2024 at the end of the month, has breathed new life into a market that has been indecisive over the last few months. 

Biden drops out

Just when things seemed to be calming down after the carnage at Trump's rally, and everyone thought that Trump would have a smooth ride into the White House, things took a different turn just this week. Biden has dropped out as the Democratic candidate. 

Rumours were rife because of the mysteriousness; was he dead? Was he incapacitated?

For the best part of a week, the general US population was unsure if their Commander-in-Chief was even fit to serve as president now, but never mind, run for a second term. 

Fortunately, he seems ok and has since spoken in public. 

However, with Kamala Harris now the front-runner for the Democrat candidacy, it's not as straightforward for Trump anymore. The angle of Trump's campaign will have to change, and they will be thrown off as it's not even clear who will be his opponent. 

The personal attacks and "Sleepy Joe" narrative that Trump was playing will have to change. 

All this means uncertainty; Trump can't kick back on cruise control; he doesn't have it in the bag anymore. 

Now, where does Kamala stand on crypto? No one really knows!

Mark Cuban said that the Kamala camp had contacted him for information about crypto. This means that, at the very least, the Democrats have at least acknowledged that crypto is a talking point in this election. 

Subsequently, both parties could develop a pro-crypto stance. 

However, people will say anything to win an election - the only thing more corruptible than money is power. 

Considering we've not heard much from her in terms of crypto-related topics, it's likely a reactionary response to the fact that Trump went to the crypto camp first. However, this could also work in her favour as it'll be very difficult to prove she didn't know anything or have an opinion on crypto-related topics and policy.

What if Trump wins? 

Trump has been making some big statements around crypto over the last year. 

Branding himself "the first Crypto President", Trump has really brought cryptocurrency into the centre of attention. The US Presidential election is one of the most followed, covered, and anticipated political cycles globally. 

He has not yet stated exact policy plans for crypto, but the exposure that has been and will be given to crypto over the coming months, up to the election and beyond, is huge. 

As he is due to speak as the headliner at the Bitcoin 2024 event, we hope that some of these policies will be highlighted so that we can better understand what he means by "Crypto President." 

Rumours are rife that Trump will announce the most significant thing in crypto since Bitcoin launched. Unthinkable last year, wishful thinking in 2020, and fantasy in 2017; could Trump announce he intends to add Bitcoin to the US government's balance sheet as a strategic reserve?

At some point, this was always going to be the case. The longer Bitcoin continues without being "cracked" or "exploited", the more trust is placed in it. 

El Salvador bit the bullet a couple of years ago and began purchasing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, much to the IMF's critique.

But if the US does it, the IMF can't complain - it's funded mainly by the US. 

Stay tuned for Bitcoin 2024 - it'll be huge. 

Is pro-crypto really pro-crypto?

Governments are constantly trying to increase control, regulate, track, and monitor everything. Crypto and Web3 are our armour against government overreach. So, when a candidate presents as pro-crypto, we find it welcoming. But beyond having a pro-crypto government pump our bags, Vitalik had the following to say in his recent essay on Politics x Crypto:

"If a politician is in favour of your freedom to trade coins, but they have said nothing about following,

• Freedom and privacy of communication.

• Freedom and privacy-friendly digital identity.

• Freedom and privacy of thought.

• High-quality access to information.

Then, the underlying thought process that causes them to support the freedom to trade coins is very different from mine (and possibly yours). This, in turn, implies a high risk that they will likely have different conclusions from you on issues that you will care about in the future."

He is basically saying here that a politician who says they support crypto but functionally has no idea what it is or does is likely to become a Trojan Horse-type character once the lobbying starts.

Remember - a political manifesto is not legally binding, and there is no obligation to actually do anything laid out on it.

Cryptonary's take

In this political context, cryptocurrency is not just a financial instrument but a symbol of resistance against centralised control. The upcoming elections are pivotal, as they will likely determine whether the regulatory landscape will stifle or nurture crypto's growth. 

If the regulatory environment nurtures crypto, our bags will continue to pump hard. If it is stifling, we will probably need to work twice as hard to get half as far.

A pro-crypto administration could implement policies that promote innovation and protect individual financial privacy, aligning with the Cypherpunk vision. Conversely, a government leaning towards stringent regulations could jeopardise the principles of decentralisation and autonomy that cryptocurrencies embody. 

Thus, the 2024 elections represent a critical juncture where the future of crypto investments and the broader fight for digital freedom intersect, echoing the Cypherpunks' relentless pursuit of privacy and self-sovereignty.

In war, offensive weapon development overtakes defensive weapon development, and a proactive attack is often the best form of defence. The crypto community is on the offensive by supporting pro-crypto candidates. 

But regardless of who wins the election, whether regulation loosens or tightens or the US buys Bitcoin, crypto is inevitable. 

So, we are long-term bullish on crypto, but we surely won't mind the short-term pump in our bags.