If we're right and the ETF is approved, this is risk-on for the next few weeks, particularly as the mechanics are no longer overheated and the excess leverage has now been flushed out.
Technical analysis
- BTC bounced off the main horizontal support of $40,900 during the flush out, which is positive for future price action.
- BTC is now battling at a key horizontal resistance of $44,000. Mind you, we have already had one breakout that turned out to be a fakeout. However, a new breakout would likely follow through, especially if supported by an ETF approval.
- Volume is low, so much more volume will be needed to get the breakout. With positive ETF news, we'll most likely get the required volume.
- The RSI has reset on all timeframes except for the Weekly, which is at a value of 74, so it is not disastrously overbought. RSI overall is relatively positive.
Cryptonary's take
Ultimately, this is still range-bound. However, if the ETF news, likely before next Wednesday, is positive, then BTC can potentially get up to the $48Ks.We are pleased we're still positioned here, and yesterday's horrendous price action didn't liquidate us.
For now, we are continuing to hold. Post ETF, if it's a positive decision, we may profit book when we think we're at a local high. We will judge/assess post-ETF decision.
If the decision doesn't go our way, then we're just wrong, and we'll engage in a salvage job.
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