Barbell strategy coins hold steady amidst range-bound action

Generally speaking, market-wide, we think the range-bound price action can continue for a longer time. But we expect liquidity to pick up in the coming month or two, which should help to begin a new, more major leg higher in crypto. 

For now, we remain patient and in Spot positions. We'll continue to add to certain coins when attractive price levels are reached. We'll also continue to look for new trading opportunities to profit from those in the meantime and potentially then look to rotate profits back into our barbell strategy coins.

 Let's go!!!!!

Key questions

• What's the current state of the crypto market, and why might patience be the key strategy right now?
• How are the barbell strategy coins performing, and what potential catalysts could shake up their trajectories?
• Is Bitcoin's technical analysis revealing a hidden opportunity amidst its recent price action?
• With an ETH ETF on the horizon, what unexpected scenarios should traders be prepared for?
• SOL and WIF are showing signs of a major move, but in which direction?
• Could this cat coin be positioning itself to outcompete the biggest dog coin in the market?

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. 

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BTC

• Bitcoin's Funding Rate is 0.01%, indicating a relatively even balance between Longs and Shorts. If the Funding Rate is heavily positive or negative, that suggests an overweight in either Shorts (very negative rate) or Longs (very positive rate), and that may indicate that the market can squeeze in the other direction. However, a 0.01% Funding Rate is essentially a flat rate.
• The Open Interest (the amount of leverage) has bounced from the lows. However, it remains well below the Open Interest highs we saw back in early June.
• From a market mechanics perspective, all seems clean here.

Technical analysis

• For now, the bear flag pattern is playing out, and price is actually following our projected path (the pink squiggle).
• Price has moved up yesterday, forming a great Weekly candle, but on the Daily candle, price has moved to the top of the bear flag which also converges with the horizontal resistance of $63,400.
• The top border of the bear flag and the horizontal resistance of $63,400 are likely to be too strong a resistance for price in the short term.
• If price can sustain at this level, then a breakout of the red downtrend line is more likely, which may help BTC go higher.
• If price pulls back, it may break below the bear flag. If it does, it'll likely find support in the $58k - $59k area, whilst it would also likely put in a bullish divergence.

Cryptonary's take 

In the short term, we think price will struggle to meaningfully break out above the $63,400 horizontal resistance. This will then likely lead to price breaking down from the bear flag. But we see that bidders will most probably step in between $58k and $59k. This would also create a bullish divergence for the Bitcoin price. 

We would see this as a great formation and an attractive Long trade on Bitcoin if it were to form that new low below the bear flag and put that bullish divergence in. For now, we'll remain patient and see how price reacts here. 

But essentially, we expect the price to continue following the path we have drawn for it (pink squiggle).

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ETH

• ETH's funding rate is also 0.01%, the same as that of Bitcoin. This shows an even positioning between Longs and Shorts.
• ETH's Open Interest is downtrending, meaning the total leverage is decreasing, but the overall amount remains relatively high. This is the sign of a market that is in a cooling-off phase but not in risk-off mode. A mid-bull consolidation.

Technical analysis

• ETH remains compressed between the local horizontal support of $3,280 and the horizontal resistance of $3,485.
• Above $3,485, ETH will be heading into the local downtrend line and the next horizontal resistance at $3,720.
• Below $3,280, ETH is likely to be bid quite heavily, particularly as we go into the launch of an ETH ETF very soon.
• ETH hasn't moved into oversold territory on the Daily RSI like Bitcoin had, potentially due to that slightly added extra bit of positivity with the ETH ETF.
• A breakout of the red downtrend line and price above $3,720 are needed to send the significantly higher (to say, $4,500).

Cryptonary's take 

There could be some volatility before the launch of the ETH ETF, so we'd suggest not making large leverage trades, particularly with excessive leverage.

However, below $3,280 and anything in the $3,100s, we see ETH as a relatively good value to buy, even if it's for a shorter-term trade. 

It's possible that ETH could really blow us away in the coming weeks if the ETF inflows are big and positive. Currently, we think the market is underpricing for this.

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SOL

• SOL's funding rate was negative going into the weekend, but the move up in price saw some shorts liquidated.
• The Funding Rate is now flat at 0.01%.
• SOL's Open Interest has bounced up slightly from the lows but remains well below the highs set in March. Again, this looks like a healthy consolidation from the mechanics' point of view.

Technical analysis

• So far, SOL has been unable to get back above the main uptrend line. If price can't recover the uptrend, this will be a bearish reversal indicator for us.
• The red downtrend line and the horizontal resistance of $152 also act as resistance to SOL's price going higher in the short term.
• If price does pull back slightly (we think that it might), then the area of real interest for us would be the $131 horizontal support.

Cryptonary's take 

While we still believe that we're in a mostly range-bound market until potentially the Fed Meeting on July 31st, as we assume Powell does forward guide a September interest rate cut, we stay patient in Spot positions for now. If price pulls back, then sub $131 would be an attractive price to continue adding to our Spot bags for the longer term (6-12 months). 

We're aiming to sell well north of $400-500, potentially even much higher. So, it's important not to let a sideways market chop your positions up and to continually add at attractive price points—for us, that would be on any breaks below the $131 horizontal support.

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WIF

WIF has bounced from the $1.50 lows, broken out of the main downtrend line, and is now attempting to break above the horizontal resistance of $2.20.

$2.20 was prior support, now new resistance. It's key for price to get back above this level. If not, then we likely see a return to the lows around $1.60, where we'd expect bigger buy orders to step in again.

WIF is currently a long way from a major breakout, which would only come once price gets back above $3.05 and then $3.40.

WIF is currently making a lower price but a higher oscillator high, known as a hidden bearish divergence.

Cryptonary's take

Even though WIF has bounced from the lows, it has formed some bearish technicals, a hidden bearish divergence, and is not able to get back above the key horizontal level of $2.20. A clean break above $2.30 would invalidate some of the bearish technicals. 

You'd then be looking for $2.20 to hold as new support, and that would then fuel WIF to go higher. 

We remain patient in Spot positions for now, having recently added between $1.50 and $1.70. If price retests that zone (between $1.50 and $1.70), we'll likely continue to add to our long-term Spot positions. 

We still expect WIF to be well north of $10 in the next 6-12 months. If I had to guess on direction, I think there can be a slight pullback here, but then we end up heading higher.

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POPCAT

• POPCAT looks super strong here, having cleared above all horizontal resistances.
• POP has also pulled back and retested the horizontal level of $0.55 a few times now as new support, having previously been past resistance. It's really key for price to flip old resistance levels into new supports.
• Price did retest its all-time high today at $0.72.
• Price is overbought on the Daily timeframe. However we have seen this be the case before with WIF and it has still gone on to put in a monstrous run.

Cryptonary's take 

We do note that price has essentially been up only for the last week, so what would be really positive here is to have a period of time consolidating above $0.55. This would likely set POP up for a more sustained rally higher that would likely see a break above the all-time highs and send POP into the $1.00 to $1.20 area. 

However, we know from past experience (WIF) that memes can just run if they have the narrative, and from what we're seeing, POP is really establishing itself as the main cat coin that could possibly even rival DOGE rather than just WIF. Let's see. 

We still favour POPCAT consolidating for a period of time. If price can do this above $0.55 and hammer that area out as new support, then it'll likely set up a very bullish move up once the consolidation phase has ended. 

Our long-term targets are still well north of $1.00, and we believe POP could get as high as $5-10, depending on how crazy the bull run gets.