Bearish stats in September, but will these coins beat the odds?

TLDR 📃

• We’ve updated our expectations for our picks for September. SPOILER: Some will outperform, some will not.
• Statistically, September has been a bearish month for the crypto market. We expect a boring/red month ahead of us. 
• The SEC delayed decisions for Bitcoin Spot ETF applications. Unsurprisingly, the market reacted negatively and invalidated all the buying pressure from the past week.
• Still, we believe this is an exaggerated reaction, and an enormous amount of demand will enter the market once these decisions are finalised.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the R:R trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice. Any capital-related decision you make is your responsibility and yours only.

Cryptonary’s portfolio 📁

Our portfolio contains BTC, ETH, ARB, DYDX, LDO, SNX, FXS, LBR, THOR & XAUT.

Here are the biggest recent movers.

BTC | Bitcoin

Last week’s performance might’ve left you optimistic, but we’re here to stir the waters. See the yellow rectangles on the graph. Unfortunately, those are all months of September. That’s right – since the creation of Bitcoin, September has been presented as a bearish month. Statistically, at least. We’re going with the data here by saying that this month has a high chance of being absolutely boring or destructive for Bitcoin.

For now, the price of Bitcoin is sitting above support, and only a weekly closure under $25,150 will confirm a much deeper downward movement.

ETH | Ethereum

You know things are about to get tricky when ETH loses support.

Its price could not hold $1,740 as support on the monthly timeframe. As a result, this opened up the road to potentially much lower prices, such as $1,420

ARB | Arbitrum

DYDX | dYdX

Although DYDX hasn’t earned the title of “outperformer” just yet, it is headed to take the crown. The last three months saw significant volatility, and despite the fluctuations, its price managed to stay afloat and even closed in the green for three months straight. The most interesting part? The last two monthly candles were bearish for BTC, whilst DYDX rose. This is a clear sign of demand, and the asset will likely visit $2.50 sometime during September or October.

LDO | Lido DAO (Weekly)

Although this is a higher timeframe play, LDO seems to be trading inside a potential falling wedge. We’ll likely see its price continue trading inside this price pattern throughout September and mid-October, and only then can we see a breakout to the upside. Of course, the breakout will have to be accompanied by increased volumes. 

THOR | THORSwap

Based on the hype factor, we expect THOR to continue rising during September despite potential turbulences on a market-wide level. On the lower timeframes, the next stop would be $0.30 - $0.26, but our first take profit level sits at $0.45 – this is where we’ll be taking out our initial investment from SITG.

Cryptonary’s watchlist 🔎

Our watchlist contains DOT, SYN, OP, LDO, ASTR, SNX, RUNE & MINA.

DOT | Polkadot

SYN | Synapse

OP | Optimism

ASTR | Astar Network

RUNE | THORChain

MINA | Mina Protocol

Cryptonary’s take 🧠

Bitcoin Spot ETF applications will play a vital role in whether the market rises in a rally or drops to new lows. Unfortunately, the final decisions will take months to finalise, and we probably won’t see the first Bitcoin Spot ETF approved until sometime in November. The market can (statistically) see more downside during September, but know this is not set in stone. In the meantime, we recommend repositioning and preparing for the bull market. 

With the halving approaching in April 2024 and Bitcoin Spot ETFs right around the corner, there’s no reason for us not to be bullish on crypto. The most important thing is to stay vigilant, avoid going all-in and instead continue DCAing into the market while preparing to ride the bullish wave once it breaks.

 

Action points 🎯

1. We expect September to be bearish for crypto, but some assets perform well. If we had to make an educated guess, this month will be bullish for DYDX, THOR, RUNE and ASTR.
2. Synapse still provides one of the best R/R ratios in the market. Initially, we planned to exit our position, but we just couldn’t sell the bottom.
3. LDO is an asset that will spark our interest sometime in October. Since it is trading inside a falling wedge, its price action will likely stagnate and not offer any interesting opportunities. Only a breakout can change that.
4. Got more questions? Hit us up on Discord in the “✍️・traders-pit” channel!

As always, thanks for reading.🙏

Cryptonary out!