Bitcoin is holding key support levels while traditional safe-haven assets like gold rally. Meanwhile, Ethereum looks weak compared to Bitcoin, which doesn’t seem to bode well for altcoins. Again, everything rests on Bitcoin – can altcoins find strength if BTC consolidates? 

We dive into the charts to determine where the market is heading and identify the ripe crypto trading opportunities. 

Let’s jump in.

TLDR

• BTC holds key level as gold rallies  – how should you play BTC now?
• ETH is looking weak relative to BTC – can altcoins rally?
• SOL is poised for a breakout – will the stars align for this trade?
• DOT is breaking down a bear flag – could there be a long trade here?
• And interestingly, SYN is now bottoming out – is this the end of the road?

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice. Any capital-related decision you make is your responsibility and yours only.

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BTC | Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to hold some key levels overnight, while Gold and Bond Yields go higher in yesterday’s session - likely due to the bombing of a hospital in Gaza.  

Let’s dive in to see where things currently stand for BTC.

Technical analysis

Considering that the ETF news was fake, price action has been surprisingly positive. BTC comfortably reclaimed the local uptrend (turquoise) line and closed above the $28,300 horizontal support. What we were then looking for yesterday was for price to continually close above the $28,300 level, flipping this level from resistance into support. We got this yesterday, and now price looks to be performing well today and is looking good to close above $28,300 again. 

Overnight, we had a move higher and tested the $29,000 level, which we previously identified as a local resistance level. Overnight, price was rejected at this level. It’s possible BTC can push up again from here, potentially to the $29,000 to $29,600 level. However, we’re becoming cautious of the move here. 

RSI and funding rates

The RSI is back to being negative on Binance but remains positive on ByBit. Since the large short liquidations on Monday (from the big move higher from BTC), the funding rate has really yo-yod, suggesting a lack of conviction in positioning remains. 

Funding rates give us an advantage when they’re meaningful one way; that way, we can take the opposite side. But, while in a middle territory, there is not too much to take from this, except that the market will likely keep whip-sawing as traders chop in and out of positions. We ideally don’t want to be one of those traders partaking in that. 

The RSI is similar to yesterday and, therefore, remains interesting. We have a lower high on the oscillator (but not yet in the overbought territory despite being very close to overbought territory) and a higher high in price – this is a bearish divergence. 

We watch this with keen interest for a potential short trade. It is not as clear-cut indicators-wise as we’d like, but it still may provide a good opportunity. Further details are below. 

Conclusion on trading BTC

For now, we’re just watching, but if the conditions for a short trade improve if BTC can move higher, to say, $29,000 to $29,600, then this zone could be a good area to layer short orders.  

Action 

• For now, we are waiting. 
• We will consider Shorting BTC between $29,000 to $29,600 if price gets there and conditions better align. The Stop Loss would be the top of Monday’s wick ($30,300), while the Take Profit target would likely be $27,300. 
• Let’s see if price gets to our entry levels before deciding to pull the trigger. There are somewhat better opportunities for Shorts elsewhere. 

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ETH | Ethereum

ETH still looks weak, to be honest, and even more so when we compare it to BTC. 

Technical analysis

Following the bounce from $1,550, we now find price at $1,580 and running into a local resistance at $1,590. The main support below us is $1,550, and we feel that price will break below this in the coming days/week if BTC cannot maintain above $28,300 and essentially hold the rest of the market up. 

Overall, ETH looks weak - let BTC dictate where the market goes, but it's not going to be ETH driving the market’s action.  

Regarding MA’s/EMA’s, they’re well above us at $1,690 and $1,790, a long way up from the current price, so there is nothing to take from this for now, but worth being aware of, i.e., don’t get carried away if we do get any major breakouts in price. 

RSI and funding rates

The RSI sums this up. BTC is at 62 (not far off over-bought conditions), yet ETH is at 44. It just goes to show how lacking in strength ETH has been. The RSI is above the RSI-based MA, which could help ETH get some upside, but we’re not optimistic. 

“ETH’s funding rates are more positive than BTC’s and look to be at a healthy level here regarding a mix of positioning. There is not much to take from the funding rates for now”. 

The above is the update that we provided yesterday, and it remains the case for today. 

Conclusion on trading ETH

We are still not confident in ETH. We’ll let BTC dictate where it wants to push the market. The risk appetite for altcoins and ETH doesn’t look strong at all, really. 

Action

• We are not confident in ETH here and are steering clear for now. Let BTC dictate, and we’ll re-assess from there. 

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SOL | Solana

Let’s get more from this; if we do, this is likely the play we like for a trade.  

Technical analysis

SOL has done well so far to move up as it has battled to hold up at the higher level of $24. Price also now finds itself above the top border of the broadening wedge and has so far held that level as support. So far, we’ve seen sellers appear in the $ 24.00 range. Hence, the seller wicks we see on the candles. 

The area of interest for us is the red box.

We have drawn in some local uptrend lines that may become more relevant in the coming days/weeks, although it’s wise to draw them in and be aware of them ahead of time - they could provide some support for price if it were to come down again.  

RSI and funding rates

“The RSI is key for setting up a trade here. We’re currently at 65 (just below overbought levels of 70), but we’re already putting in a bearish divergence - a higher high in price and a lower high on the oscillator. If this can maintain and also move into overbought territory, then this would entice us to short SOL if it reaches the red resistance box - layering short orders in that zone”. 

This was essentially yesterday’s update, which remains the key to setting us up for this trade. We need those overbought conditions, ideally along with the bearish divergence. 

Yesterday, the funding rate was the issue. Today, not so much. The reason is that it was deeply negative. And despite it still being negative, it has come much closer to neutral levels, and it’s even positive on some exchanges. We wanted to see this reset in the funding rate. However, this makes the case slightly weaker for price moving much higher into the red box area. 

Conclusion on trading SOL

We are still waiting for the conditions to fully align here, even though they already are somewhat aligned. There might be another move higher if BTC can retest higher, which is then the time for us to take the short for SOL, especially if price gets into the red box. 

Action

• We remain patient here but could potentially pull the trigger on this trade soon.  

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DOT | Polkadot

As predicted, DOT breaks down from the bear flag and retests the green box. 

We’d have liked this to go deeper into the green box to have taken the long trade again. Let’s see if this happens, but the feeling is that the setup is gone.  

Technical analysis

Technical analysis-wise, we’ve been spot on with this move from start to finish. We rejected from the underside of the horizontal resistance at $3.90, having taken profits on our long at $3.87, and now price has broken down from the overall bear flag and retested the green box. 

RSI and funding rates

The RSI has bounced from oversold levels and is now just above this area. However, the most recent move lower into the green box has created a new low for price, while the RSI has created a higher low, so it’s a bullish divergence. 

Unfortunately, to take advantage of this for a long, we’d have wanted price to go lower and put in a more meaningful low. We’ll continue tracking this for now. 

Finally, the funding rate has reset and is now slightly positive. When it was deeply negative, that meant there were a lot of shorts. We’re happy to take the other side of that trade and try to help force a short squeeze. Now that the funding rate has been reset and is not deeply negative, this is in a healthier place for the funding rate. Therefore, there isn’t another side of the trade to take essentially.  

Conclusion on trading DOT

We’ve taken DOT when the opportunity was there. Now, it looks as if it’s back to a more mixed level despite price practically being in the same spot. The market mechanics have changed; therefore, we’re not interested in a long here. We’ll keep assessing, but we think that this is done here. Opportunities elsewhere. 

Action

• Steering clear of DOT for now with regards to any trades.
• This could get more of a bounce just because it’s coming off low levels, but we’re not confident here in it bouncing. 

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SYN | Synapse

Having lost approximately 60% of its value over the last few months, is Synapse now bottoming?  

Technical Analysis

On the technical analysis front, SYN formed a large bear flag that we have seen break to the downside - as you’d expect from a bear flag. But, this breakdown did create a new price low, which will be important later. 

Currently, price has moved up nicely but has now run into the local resistance level of $0.335. If SYN can get above the $0.335 level, this can open the door for a move higher to $0.43.  

RSI 

The RSI tells another story. The new low in price created a bullish divergence - a higher low on the oscillator and a lower low in price. However, with this move higher in price (with price now testing the $0.335 local horizontal resistance), we have a lower price but a higher high on the oscillator - this is a hidden bearish divergence. This could prove to halt the move potentially.  

Conclusion on trading SYN

We would remain cautious on SYN here. In the coming weeks and months, this will trade below $0.26.  

Action

• SYN’s price is already very low here, so selling spot bags at this price level may not be wise. 
• If price can get above $0.335, then it may be smart to trim some of your bags to look and buy more at a price below $0.26.  

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Cryptonary’s take

The markets look to be at critical inflection points across the board. Bitcoin and Ethereum are battling for dominance, while large-cap altcoins like Solana and Polkadot face their own technical tests. And even after a 60% decline, Synapse may have further to fall based on the charts. 

Patience and precision will be key to navigating these conditions. We'll keep following the price action and look for opportunities when the indicators align.

As always, thanks for reading.

Cryptonary OUT!