In fact, we urged you to exercise restraint even when BTC spiked up to $49k.
Well, $49k turned out to be the local top as aggressive selling from the Greyscale unlocks saw BTC's price plummet.
Today, we will reassess the market based on where BTC is now.
From a mechanics perspective, BTC looks cleaner.
Open Interest has pulled back more materially from its highs of $19.67b down to $17.64b, while Funding is positive at 0.01%, which is a healthy level.
Technical analysis
- Following the rejection into $49k at the top of the ETF hype, price closed an ugly inverse hammer candle below the $47,100 horizontal resistance, opening the door for more downside.
- On Friday morning last week, the Greyscale selling began, and BTC flushed meaningfully lower, testing sub $42k.
- Price is now trading in a new range between $41,700 and $43,900. It's possible price tests the higher end of this range in the coming days, assuming the Greyscale selling doesn't continue tomorrow.
- A break above the $43,900 to $44,400 range would open the door for a move to $45,600. $44k is the key level to get back above now.
- The ultimate support to the downside is $40,900.
Cryptonary's take
Trading is closed today, so when it opens tomorrow, the key thing we'll be watching is whether or not the Greyscale selling continues.If it does, then BTC can drive lower and potentially test $40,900; it just depends on how aggressive the selling is.
But, the Greyscale issue aside, we think Bitcoin will likely trade in a range for a while; this could be for a few weeks. This range is likely $40,900 to $43,900.
During this time, altcoins can perform well before going through a more meaningful pullback in March/April. But, on BTC, we are watching the key levels at the $40,900 horizontal support and the horizontal resistance at $43,900.
We are not confident that BTC can spring a major upside from here. But we also think the $40k to $41k area will be strongly bought up in the short term.
Therefore, we see BTC trading in this larger $41k to $44k range.
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