Bitcoin's breakout attempt is a rising tide that could lift all coins

We still have some caution until overall market liquidity improves, but we see this as likely in the coming months.

In the meantime, BTC is attempting to break out, and that breakout could take the rest of the market with it. 

Let's see what we get.

TLDR

• After a snooze-fest range, crypto is heating up again. We are still cautious until liquidity improves, but BTC's breakout attempt could be the rising tide that lifts all coins.
• Bitcoin is eyeing $69K, which could set up an all-time high retest. 
• ETH, fueled by better-than-expected ETF inflows, looks poised to spring past $4K and aim for $4.5K.
• Solana might chill between $140-$190 this summer, but we see it as a major Q4 winner. 
• WIF is bouncing nicely. Short-term targets are $4-$4.50, with long-term bulls eyeing $10 to even $40 if things get really silly with memes.
• POPCAT is currently range-bound, but significant demand is around $0.40. Breaking $0.47, then the downtrend line near $0.53, could make this token explode. 
• Strategy: We are holding our spot bags, especially BTC and ETH. We are considering small adds to SOL if it drops to $140-$150.
• Bottom Line: The market's warming up, patience now, especially through summer, could mean hefty rewards in late Q3 and Q4.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. 

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BTC

Following the relatively dovish data last Friday, risk assets didn't initially rally on the back of the positive data release. However, going into the close of Friday's session, we saw that equities bounced nicely and that positive move seems to have carried over to this morning in crypto's price action. 

Let's dive into Bitcoin below.

• Open Interest (the amount of leverage) has increased slightly over the last 24 hours, having already been at relatively high levels before the recent increase.
• The Funding Rate is 0.012%, indicating a slight bias among traders to be long. This is a healthy Funding Rate.
• In summarising the above, leverage has increased, and it has increased from a relatively high level. Although there is a healthy balance between Longs and Shorts, it doesn't indicate a squeeze in a particular direction. But we do have to be careful that a squeeze is possible due to the high level of Open Interest.

Technical analysis

• Having broken out of the larger bull flag, BTC now finds itself in what looks to be another bull flag.
• BTC is currently at the top of this bull flag, squeezing into the top border of the flag, which may act as resistance.
• Alongside this, there is horizontal resistance at $68,900/$69,000, which is also potentially acting as resistance for price in the short term.
• If price can comfortably break above $69,000 (above the horizontal resistance and out of the bull flag), that would set up a retest of the all-time highs of $73,500.
• The RSI is clean on the daily timeframe. However, it's very close to being overbought on the weekly timeframe, although it has had a period of consolidating, which can be positive for price.

Cryptonary's take 

Whilst we're range-bound, price action is hard to call here other than the fact it's range-bound, and we expect price to just range between $60k and $70. 

However, price does look good to go higher here as long as we can get a clean break above $69k (a breakout of the local bull flag and the horizontal resistance at $69k). If we were to get this, then the all-time high would be the next significant retest point. 

We wouldn't be taking any action here; we'd just be holding our spot bags. For us to add to our BTC spot bags, we'd need to see a significant pullback in price that we don't expect to see currently. Therefore, we sit tight and let our BTC spot bags ride.

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ETH

• ETH's Open Interest has stayed very high following the news that the ETF would likely be approved, and then it was approved. You would expect this heightened Open Interest to be flushed out at some point.
• ETH's Funding Rate is 0.17%, indicating a bullish tilt among ETH traders. If ETH were to break above $4,000, we'd likely see many Shorts squeezed out and a decent chunk of this Open Interest come off.

Technical analysis

• ETH looks coiled to push higher here.
• There is horizontal resistance at $3,967. Price had moved into that level and immediately rejected from there last week, so that'll be the key level for price to clear above.
• To the downside, $3,730 should act as local support, with $3,485 being a major level of support if the price were to break down that low.
• To the upside, ETH would need to convincingly clear above the horizontal level of $3,967 and potentially the psychological level of $4,000.
• The RSI is high and just shy of overbought territory on all major timeframes following the large move up on the ETF news. This may become a headwind, but for now price may not be too affected by this.

Cryptonary's take 

ETH has the positive catalyst of an ETF on the horizon, and my take is that I (Tom) think ETF inflows will be better than what the market is expecting. Currently, the market expects them to be only 10% of Bitcoin's inflows. My feeling is that it'll be higher. Therefore, with this catalyst and the above, we see that ETH can go higher here, potentially break out of $4,000, and begin the ascent up to $4,500 in the coming month or so. 

In terms of our ETH Spot bags, we continue to hold and ride them. However, we now would also consider adding to our bags if ETH were to pull back to sub $3,500 in the short term. 

But, we see the more likely scenario as a breakout to the upside in the coming weeks where ETH leaves the $4,000 behind.

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SOL

• Out of the big 3 (BTC, ETH and SOL), SOL is the only one whose Open Interest hasn't come close to the highs that were set in March. However, Open Interest did increase substantially over the past two weeks from the lows following the flush out of the weekend that saw Iran bomb Israel.
• SOL's Funding Rate is at 0.012%, so there is a relatively clean balance between Longs and Shorts and, therefore, little to no indication of a squeeze in a specific direction.
• Overall, the market mechanics are supportive of price potentially continuing to grind higher over the coming weeks.

Technical analysis

• SOL is now out of/below its local uptrend line (yellow line), although price has managed to hold above the local horizontal support of $162.
• Below $162, the main horizontal support is at $152.
• Over the last week, the $170 level has proven to be a local resistance that price has sold into multiple times, leading to this slight sell-off on the smaller timeframes.
• The RSI has reset on all major timeframes and is in the middle territory, which is positive for price action going forward.

Cryptonary's take 

In order for SOL to retest the cycle highs soon, it'll need to reclaim the local uptrend in the coming days, but we think it's more likely to stay range-bound and may even dip to $152. 

We would consider this a deviation below the local support and potentially even a small buying opportunity if we did see $150. Whilst we still expect SOL to be the major winner of this cycle, we see the likelihood of further range-bound price action (possibly between $140 and $190) as likely over the coming couple of months. 

However, after the summer, we expect crypto, in general, to see a more substantial upside, and we see SOL as one of the big winners of that. Therefore, we continue to hold Spot bags of SOL, and we're even considering small additions to our Spot position if we see the price back between $140 and $150. 

Other than that, we remain patient and continue holding. We believe that patience now will be heavaily rewarded in late Q3 and then Q4 of this year.

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WIF

• Following WIF's breakout of the large pennant pattern, WIF also broke out of the horizontal resistance of $3.40 but then rejected at $4.00 and then retested the low $3s.
• WIF is now attempting to bounce and climb back above the horizontal level of $3.40.
• WIF needs a clean close above the $3.40 horizontal resistance. If it does, it will set up a move back to $4.00 and then $4.50.
• In the short term, the key level to the downside that we (bulls) want to see hold is the horizontal level of $3.05. It has held so far, and price has bounced nicely from that level so far.
• The RSI is clean on the Daily and 3D timeframes, supporting higher prices; there is no headwind here.

Cryptonary's take 

WIF has bounced off of the $3.05 level which was key for price to do so if we're hoping to see further bullish price action. 

A clean close above $3.40 would set WIF up to get back to $4.00-$4.50 in the short term. We see that in the upcoming week or two, WIF can get back to $4.00-$4.50 and chop around at that level rather than pull back to the $3s. 

In the long term, we still see WIF as achieving well north of $10, with some Cryptonary team members calling for well north of $40. 

In the short term, we again continue to hold spot bags. The time to accumulate was in the yellow box we had outlined when WIF topped in late March. 

A short-term play could be a long upon a daily candle close above $3.40-$3.50 with a take profit at $4.00. But we do note that it's possible that WIF chops further, and we don't rule out a potential retest of the $3.05 horizontal support.

 

POPCAT

Firstly, let's break down what we see as pretty clear levels of support and resistance here. We have extended the support box zone between $0.32 and $0.34, and we see that as a really key level for price to hold above. 

Note: This chart is on a 12-hour rather than the 1D timeframe.

• The $0.40 level is providing some support with it becoming more of a key psychological level as well.
• Above the current price, the two main horizontal levels of resistance are at $0.47 and $0.53-$0.55. $0.53 to $0.55 is more of a zone of resistance. A clearance above that level and POPCAT will likely explode higher. Although the price needs to get back above $0.47 first, it should be said.
• If price can get above $0.47 and approach $0.53, it'll also approach the main downtrend line (red line). A breakout of this could be what's needed to really fuel price to get that breakout above $0.55.

Cryptonary's take 

Like most coins, POPCAT is currently range-bound, although in what seems to be a tighter range (even though it isn't). This is due to the volatility. We notice significant demand for POPCAT in and around $0.40. The key to a major breakout is for price to get back into the $0.47 to $0.53 range and then break out of the downtrend line. 

With POPCAT, we remain patient for now, although we're tracking this one closely. A break below $0.40 would have us more concerned, but we would expect $0.32 to $0.34 to hold as major support. 

If the general market (BTC, ETH and SOL) continues to be positive, then it's unlikely we will see a breakdown for POPCAT, and price will have a greater chance of retesting $0.53 and then eventually breaking out from there. 

Let's see what we get, but be patient currently. We expect POPCAT's market cap to reach many billions in the long term.