BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE – Bear bias takes over, critical supports under fire

TLDR:

• BTC: Bearish; likely heading to $95.7k-$98.9k unless it breaks $107k.
• ETH: Neutral/Bullish; holding $2,420, could retest $2,720.
• SOL: Bearish bias; may drop to $130-$120 after current chop.
• HYPE: Neutral; strong trend but possible pullback to $21.3-$28.

---

BTC:

• BTC's Open Interest has pulled back on this price pullback, whilst the Funding Rate has turned negative. This suggests that late Longs have been flushed, and that Shorts have now chased the move down.

BTC's open interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• BTC formed a Head & Shoulders pattern which has seen a price breakdown as we expected it would.
• Price is now putting in a bearish retest, where price has moved back up to retest the underside of the resistance.
• The price range now (that might act as resistance) is between $102,500 and $105,000.
• Beyond that, the main horizontal resistance is at $107,000.
• The next zone of support (sub $100k) is at the Yellow Box we have identified. This is the range between $95,700 and $98,900.
• The RSI has pulled back from overbought territory and it's now back into middle territory.

• Next Support: $98,900
• Next Resistance: $106,900
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $106,900
• Downside Target: $95,700

Cryptonary's take

BTC looks to be putting in a bearish retest of the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern that it has recently broken down from. Our expectation is that price will continue to trend lower over the coming 1-2 weeks, and price will eventually fill the Yellow box between $95,700 and $98,900.

We will assess at the time as to whether we repurchase BTC if it reaches the Yellow box zone. An invalidation of our thesis will be a breakout above $107k, although we're not expecting this to happen as the macro is still uncertain with the overall level of uncertainty and BTC ETF flows waning.

What's next

We’re entering the volatility pocket — precise levels for ETH, SOL, and HYPE are in place. You’ll want to see this before it moves.

---

ETH:

• ETH's Open Interest remains at phenomenally high levels whilst Funding Rates remain flat (0.00%).
• This suggests that there is a relatively even balance between Longs and Shorts.

ETH's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• ETH has initially rejected into the local resistance at $2,720, although price has found support at the main horizontal support of $2,420.
• ETH remains range bound between $2,420 and $2,720.
• If price breaks below $2,420, the next major horizontal support sits at $2,160.
• If price can move back towards the highs and breakout of $2,720, the next upside resistance level is $3,050.
• As price has consolidated between $2,420 and $2,720, this has given time for the RSI to reset and pullback to middle territory, being neither overbought nor oversold. This is healthy to see.

• Next Support: $2,420
• Next Resistance: $2,720
• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Upside Target: $2,720
• Downside Target: $2,160

Cryptonary's take

ETH's chart looks drastically better than the other Majors, as ETH has managed to hold its structure with the $2,420 horizontal support remaining intact. It's important that the $2,420 level continues to hold, and if the rest of the market can hold up at current levels, even for just a few days to a week, then ETH can potentially run back to $2,720 in this time. In terms of breaking out beyond that, we'd likely have to see the general market hold current levels.

For now, we're not looking to trade ETH, although we may look to pick up longer-term Spot bags should ETH break down and retest the main horizontal support at $2,160.

---

SOL:

• SOL's Open Interest remains quite high considering the approximate 20% pullback we've seen in price.
• SOL's Funding Rate is negative at -0.01% indicating that there are more Shorts than Longs, and this might open the door for a potential Short-squeeze, although it would unlikely be of huge magnitude.

SOL's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• After price broke down from the main uptrend line and it couldn't find support at $162, price revisited $150.
• SOL put in a small bounce at $150, which saw a bearish retest - a move up into the underside of the horizontal resistance of $162, which then rejected.
• Price has then put in a small bounce from $144 which we're now using as the local support, but upside looks capped with $153 now being a local horizontal resistance.
• The key level for price to reclaim to the upside is the horizontal line at $162. Above that bullish, below it, bearish.
• To the downside, if price loses the $144 level, then $130 is likely next, although it might take some days/a week to move down to $130.
• One positive takeaway is that the RSI has meaningfully reset now, and it is now close to oversold territory.

• Next Support: $144
• Next Resistance: $153
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $162
• Downside Target: $120

Cryptonary's take

SOL has pulled back from the $180 highs and price is now in a strong support area between $144 and $153. We'd expect price to chop around here for a few days, maybe even a week, although we do expect the next move to be a continuation lower, even if there is a small move higher first (to say $153), before breaking lower to $120 to $130.

For now, we're not looking to act. However, if price pulls back to the $120 to $130 area, and we expect it can do in the medium term, then we'll look to begin lightly allocating (buying SOL) for the long-term, so with a view to holding the position for 12 months.

---

HYPE:

• HYPE remains in its long-term uptrend, although it is now forming a pennant pattern at its highs.
• Its main horizontal resistance are its all-time highs at $40.00.
• The local support for HYPE is at $32.50 with the more major horizontal support at $28.00.
• If price were to break below $28.00, $21.30 to $28.00 is a huge support zone. We'd likely look to accumulate HYPE towards the lower end of this range, should it be tested.
• The RSI has pulled back slightly, although it is still relatively close to overbought territory. Price may need to consolidate more to reset this indicator further.

• Next Support: $32.50
• Next Resistance: $40.00
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $40.00
• Downside Target: $28.00

Cryptonary's take

Considering we've had some pullbacks in the Majors, HYPE has held up well. For us, the key aspect we're watching is whether HYPE can hold its uptrend line, and if $32.50 can remain the major support.

We expect HYPE to breakdown over the coming weeks and we'll look to accumulate HYPE towards the lower end of the range between $21.30 and $28.00. For now, though, our strategy for HYPE does just require some patience.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

---