BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE: Fragile, fueled, or finished?

TLDR:

• BTC: Healthy pullback; strong support at $102.5k–$107k. Targeting $112k–$120k.
• ETH: Retesting $2,720 support; holding could lead to $3,050.
• SOL: Pullback to $157 support; long-term bullish, adding on dips to $144.
• HYPE: Overbought with bearish divergence; wait for pullback to $32–$34.

BTC remains supported as macro uncertainty persists, and ETF flows stabilise.

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BTC:

• Looking at the Open Interest on a more zoomed-in view, we can see that OI ramped up into the price spike to $110k, and OI has since pulled back.
• Funding Rates also remain subdued, which is positive.
• So far, this is a small but healthy leverage flush out.

BTC's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• On the local timeframes, BTC has reached an all-time high.
• Price has now pulled back to a key horizontal level of $107k. This is a major support.
• Below $107k, there is a strong support zone between $102,500 and $105,500, which we expect the price to hold.
• To the upside, the main resistance is between $110,000 and the all-time high of $112,000.
• The RSI has nicely reset on this move, with it now sitting on its moving average. This is positive.

• Next Support: $105,500
• Next Resistance: $112,000
• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Upside Target: $112,000 (then $120,000)
• Downside Target: $102,500

Cryptonary's take

Despite the slight pullback, the price action looks positive here, and to us, this just looks like a healthy pullback. If $107k is lost, then we expect the price to be heavily supported between $102,500 and $105,500, and we'd be buyers of this dip should we get it. However, we're not ruling out that $107k just holds here.

For now, we're remaining patient, but if we see dips into the $102,500 to $105,500 range, then we'll become dip buyers with a view to a long-term hold (at least 12 months).

What's next

RSI resets. Funding flat. Open Interest climbing—are SOL and ETH about to explode or collapse?

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ETH:

• ETH's Open Interest ramped up as price moved up, although the price move up was backed by solid Spot buying also.
• Price has pulled back slightly, and the Open Interest has remained high. There doesn't look to be a leverage flush out on the horizon here, especially as Funding Rate remain within range at 0.01%.

ETH's Open Interest (in USD value):

Technical analysis

• ETH broke out of its local uptrend line and then the main horizontal resistance at $2,720.
• Price is now pulling back to $2,720 to test it as new support. We're looking for a price to hold this support and bounce from here.
• Should price bounce from here, the upside target and the next major horizontal resistance is $3,050.
• Should price lose the $2,720 horizontal support, then essentially, it's just back into range between $2,420 and $2,720.
• Below $2,720, there is local support at $2,580, with the major support at $2,420.
• The RSI has broken out of its downtrend, and it's now sitting on top of its moving average, and it's not overbought. Looks good, assuming $2,720 can hold.

• Next Support: $2,720
• Next Resistance: $3,050
• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Upside Target: $3,050
• Downside Target: $2,420

Cryptonary's take

The Majors, particularly BTC and ETH, are at crucial levels here, balancing on top of key supports. Although if these supports are lost, there are several supports below the current level. If the geopolitical environment can stabilise (Iran/Israel), then we'd expect the price to bounce at or around these levels ($2,720), and move higher from here.

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SOL:

• SOL's Open Interest is also at highs, and it hasn't yet come off, which is relevant considering price has had a 5% pullback.
• SOL's Funding Rate remains subdued, which suggests that there is a relatively even balance between Longs and Shorts. This is a healthy setup.

SOL's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• SOL has broken out from its downtrend line, and the price is now pulling back a tad.
• As price action has developed, we can identify a new support zone between $157 and $164, rather than the clean line of $162 that we had previously.
• Price has initially rejected into the top of the local range at $162, but price has found support at $157, whilst the RSI has broken out and now reset in middle territory.
• If the price breaks down, then the next move down would be to $144.
• But we expect the price to hold $157, and then begin to climb higher, again pushing on to $180.

• Next Support: $157 (then $144)
• Next Resistance: $164
• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Upside Target: $180
• Downside Target: $144

Cryptonary's take

SOL has broken out and is now pulling back and retesting a local support at $157. In 12 months' time, we expect SOL to be substantially higher, likely well above new all-time highs. Therefore, we'll begin dipping our toes in, adding to our long-term SOL bags between $144 and $157, and we're inclined to add a small amount at the current price to immediately increase our exposure. We're not looking to rush here, and we're looking to progressively add to this position over the coming months.

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HYPE:

• HYPE held its uptrend line, and then the price broke out of the bull pennant.
• Price has made a new high; however, a bearish divergence has now formed in overbought territory (higher high in price, lower high on the oscillator).
• This suggests a pullback is possible here in the short-term.
• There is likely strong support for HYPE between $32 and $34.
• A local level (support) for price to pull back to might be $36.80.
• To the upside, there is no major resistance, although you'd take the all-time high as the next local resistance level.

• Next Support: $32
• Next Resistance: $44
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $44
• Downside Target: $28

Cryptonary's take

HYPE has really run majorly higher over the last few months, and whilst price has gone into price discovery, it has now put in a bearish divergence in overbought territory. This would suggest a pullback can happen here or at least a period of consolidation. Investors/traders should be cautious when buying or adding HYPE at these price points. It is better to take advantage of more substantial pullbacks and to accumulate bags into those price pullbacks.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.