It doesn’t look good on the mechanics side, but for now, it’s been supported by a strong Spot bid, which is good.
Let's look into this further. Open interest on BTC is back to $19b, the same as recent highs, but also, the last time Open Interest was this high was when the price was at all-time highs in November 2021.
The Funding Rate is also massively positive. For now, this is fine because a Spot bid is supporting it. However, if that Spot bid decreases (potentially post-ETF approval), and Funding stays high, then we likely see a relatively nasty flush out.
Due to ETF, the price can get further upside, but we are thinking not loads - maybe a 10% increase.
Technical analysis
- BTC saw a brilliant move late yesterday, and it’s now comfortably closed above the $44,000 horizontal resistance.
- There is a resistance range from prior price action between $46k and $48k, so if price can move higher, that’ll be a really interesting level to watch for weakness or strength.
- $44,000 is hopefully now the new horizontal support until broken. If broken, $41,000 is the horizontal support.
- The RSI has reset relatively on all timeframes except the Weekly, although it isn't majorly overbought. The 3D is similar but not disastrous.
Cryptonary's take
We saw new Spot bids ape in late last night and push price higher, with the CME really aggressively moving higher.Does TradFi know the ETF is getting approved sooner?
The price will likely continue to be positive until then, and on approval, we may get a $2k-$4k candle to the upside.
However, following this, we will be super cautious.
The reason is that many TradFi players will likely close out their Longs to book profits with all the positive news that has now come.
We may see a more meaningful pullback in the following month.
Bitcoin started 2024 with a strong move up, but what does the rest of 2024 have in stock for your portfolio?Check out Cryptonary's 2024 projections.
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