Geopolitics shake crypto—BTC leads recovery

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

---

• This weekend's escalation between Iran and Israel saw markets pull back, with BTC's Open Interest pulling back. A healthy development.
• Alongside this, Funding Rates are just about positive, meaning there is no froth from Longs here.
• Overall, this weekend's events have seen a flush in Open Interest, which now provides BTC with a healthier setup to now push higher.

BTC's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• Price dropped over the weekend into our main support area between $102.500 and $105,500. Price bounced at $102,600.
• Price has since recovered, and it is now battling at the main horizontal level of $107,000. Price will need to see a few Daily candle closures above this level for confirmation of continued upside.
• Beyond $107,000, the main horizontal resistance is at $110,500 and then the all-time high.
• To the downside, the main support range is between $102,500 and $105,500. We expect to see this area continue to hold as strong support.
• The RSI has pulled back to middle territory, with it now breaching above its moving average.

• Next Support: $102,500
• Next Resistance: $110,500
• Direction: Neutral/Bullish
• Upside Target: $112,000
• Downside Target: $102,500

Cryptonary's take

BTC has recovered well following the escalation this weekend between Iran and Israel, bouncing off the $102,500 horizontal support that we outlined in our last update. We're now looking for BTC to continue showing strength and to close convincingly above $107,000. This would then set up a move back to the highs at $110,500 over the coming days.

A close above $107k would strengthen the case for BTC to retest its highs, though macro catalysts like Wednesday's FED decision and ETF flow trends will likely shape near-term direction.