Hate it or love it: This underdog can become the top dog

Have you ever heard the phrase, “Do you want to be rich, or do you want to be right?”

We suspect you have, and if you haven’t, welcome to the wonderful world of meme coins.

Now, we understand that many people are purists, and they'll never touch meme coins with a 10-foot pole -- and that's okay.

But our job here is to provide you with the most exciting opportunities in Web3; now, what you do with that information is up to you.

But before you denounce the idea of meme coins in its entirety, let us ask you a few questions.

• What is the meme coin of Ethereum?

• What is Shiba Inu's market cap?

• What is the dog coin of Solana?

• What are the odds that SOL will continue to close the market cap gap with ETH’?

• Do you see where this is going?

It’s relatively simple: we expect the market cap of this meme coin to increase faster than SHIB throughout the coming bull market.

And while some of our analysts disagree on the best strategy, we do not disagree on the core thesis. 

Check out the why and how.

Key takeaways

• BONK is a vibrant Solana meme coin with a strong community ethos and fair distribution. It was airdropped on Christmas 2022 to support Solana developers.
• Meme coins like DOGE have created a distinct crypto sector fueled by community support and viral trends, making high growth possible. BONK aims to follow this model.
• BONK has developed an ecosystem beyond just being a meme coin, with products like BonkSwap, trading bots, staking, bridges, an active DAO, etc.
• BONK has decent tokenomics and listings that could facilitate more liquidity and interest. Its historical beta to SOL suggests it could magnify SOL returns.
• If Solana declines in popularity, BONK's thesis fails. Also, volatility and market timing are risks.
• Buying BONK in the next three months looks good for the long term, as the price could be much higher in a year. Careful trade execution can maximise returns.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

Introducing BONK

BONK Backstory

☝️ This video is a must-watch!

The birth of a giant

BONK, Solana's vibrant meme coin, stands out with its community-driven ethos and fair distribution. It's more than just a token; it's a symbol of fun and unity in the crypto world, capturing the essence of the decentralised spirit.

It was born on Christmas day, 2022 and airdropped to Solana devs who needed it most when the aftermath of the FTX fallout was still gripping our ecosystem. The airdrop was worth $10k at the time and is now worth over $150k. 

“Bonk is quite literally a reason devs stayed to build on Solana”

There are currently 650,000 holders across ten chains. The coin is over 60% circulating, with the remainder spread amongst the DAO (majority) and other treasuries. 

The culture of meme coins

BONK’s ascent reflects the broader meme coin culture, which leverages community support and viral trends to achieve significant growth.

Launched in 2013, Doge has been responsible for creating and cementing this crypto sector throughout its history. In this industry, you cannot exempt meme coins as investment vehicles, as crazy as that sounds.

And here we are, with 100 thousands of dead meme coins strewn around the blockchain, holding on to the same dream. Is Bonk’s reputation strong enough to become cemented next to Doge? 

We think it's possible.

Meme coins don't have fundamentals, or do they?

It may surprise you, but Bonk is more than just a meme coin. We know it feels weird even to say that.  here are some interesting things we found in the Bonk universe.

• Bonkswap - It even has DCA powered by Jupiter
• Bonkbot - Telegram Trading Bot
• $esBONK staking integration via Hxro
• Wormhole - Official bridge portal
• BONKDAO - A working DAO

The bullish case for BONK

1. Tokenomics and growth potential

BONK's tokenomics and listings on platforms like Binance signal a promising future, potentially facilitating increased investor interest and liquidity.

Its remarkable growth over the past months suggests it could continue gaining momentum, narrowing the market cap gap with Shiba Inu.

We aren't exactly fans of these comparisons, but we’ll do one for the culture.

Bonk may achieve this goal, and it may even go further. BONK is beta to SOL and will rise as long as Solana does.

2. Community engagement and distribution

The project's dedication to fostering a strong community is evident through its widespread token distribution and the development of community-centric platforms such as BonkSwap and various games and art initiatives, as seen on its ecosystem page.

In addition to the integrations and products built by the team and DAO, they have just launched a reward campaign for loyal holders. 

This ecosystem is integrated and sticky—an excellent sign.

3. Foothold as the Solana dog coin

There is no question whether Bonk is the meme coin of choice for Solana.

There was once a dog coin named SAMO, but it died when the man it was named after went to jail. Do not be fooled by any promises of its revival.

Just look at Bonk’s website, which highlights all of these integrations. It is very impressive.

4. Historically, BONK is an effective leveraged bet on SOL

If the narrative around BONK does not entirely convince you, there's another way to understand its potential: through a quantitative analysis.

After examining historical price data from June 2023 to the present, we've identified a significant relationship between BONK and SOL. This relationship is indicated by BONK's beta value of 1.6 compared to SOL.

In simpler terms, BONK behaves like a magnified version of SOL. If you have a positive outlook on SOL's performance, investing in BONK might offer you a more significant return. But it also amplifies the associated risks.

A beta of 1.6 means that if SOL were to experience a substantial increase in its value, for example, a 200% rise, then, assuming BONK continues to follow its historical price pattern relative to SOL, BONK's price could potentially skyrocket by approximately 320%.

Given this data, it seems logical to consider holding BONK in addition to SOL, provided you have a bullish perspective on the L1. This is even better if your time horizon can sustain volatile swings—Time in vs Timing.

The bearish case for BONK

1. Solana loses popularity

If Solana as an ecosystem loses significant mind-share in 2024, this thesis would be invalidated. It is really that simple.

2. Wrong market timing 

You can invest in a great protocol at the wrong time, and it will become a poor investment. The opposite is also true.

We see this as the most significant risk for investing in BONK today, as BONK has appreciated nearly 500% in the last 30 days alone.

3. The wild volatility of meme coins

While BONK's performance has been stellar, potential investors need to consider the volatile nature of meme coins. Rapid price appreciations can attract short-term speculative interest but also pose risks of sharp corrections.

Cryptonary's take

Buying BONK now or at any point in the next three months is a good decision - because we believe it will be much higher a year from now.

But trade execution is everything because it's the difference between a 5x and a 10x.

It should be no surprise that the team at Cryptonary has differing opinions on this.

1. Short-term: Buy once price retraces, in light of recent pumps
2. Mid-term: Buy once BTC ETF approval leads to a significant dip one month from now (for the context around this, see our latest monthly market update).
3. Long-term: Buy any dip with a DCA strategy

We cannot know whether the price will dip next week, next month, or never, but we can place probabilities, and it will presumably sell off eventually.

Therefore, consider your time horizon and risk profile before entering a trade.

We believe the $0.00001 level will hold for the remainder of December.

However, if there are deeper pullbacks between now and the ETF approval, we can see the price returning to the $0.000005 level, another 50% from the round number support. Any purchases between these levels are good buys.

Patience is a virtue, and deep resets are always on the table, so we recommend being ready with your stables or spot SOL.

On the fence? Just wait.

Targets? It is too soon for that, but we will be actively discussing this trade (and more) in the community.

And for what it is worth, one of our researchers entered a position two weeks ago at a lower price. However, this purchase represents a long-term investment and will not be sold before an ETF approval or relatively soon after. This is for the top.