Here’s why we are sitting on our hands (for now)

Secondly, we have completed and uploaded a new market direction update. As is our recent custom, we've covered our barbell strategy coins: BTC, ETH, SOL, WIF, and POPCAT. 

We expect more rangebound price action through the summer months when volumes are lower and the market is adjusting to a new Bitcoin Halving. We usually see prices remain rangebound for quite a few months. 

Overall, we're remaining patient, sitting in Spot bags, and playing the odd trading opportunity when attractive setups present themselves. 

Let's dive in

TLDR

• What's causing Bitcoin's unusually high Open Interest, and how might it affect price action in the coming months?
• ETH's hidden strength: An overlooked factor could catch the market off guard.
• SOL's recent stumble: Is this a cause for concern, or could it present an unexpected opportunity?
• WIF's potential triple-bottom setup: We touch on the levels you should watch for a possible trend reversal.
• POPCAT's growing legitimacy: Major exchange listings signal this meme has staying power. What key levels could signal its next big move?

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. "One Glance" by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. These are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

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BTC

• Bitcoin's Open Interest remains high. But, as we explained in the Monthly Report, we may be in a new regime where Open Interest is much higher due to TradFi firms taking the basis trade (buying the ETF and selling the Futures contract).
• Bitcoin's Funding Rate remains flat at the 0.01% level, meaning that there is a relatively even balance between Longs and Shorts, which makes it is less likely that we will see a leverage squeeze in a specific direction.

Technical analysis

• Bitcoin remains super boring and rangebound, which is typical in the lower-volume summer months and the early months after a Bitcoin Halving.
• Price is currently range-bound between $63,400 and $69,000.
• To the downside, the key area of support is a zone between $62,500 and $63,500.
• To the upside, the local horizontal resistance is at $67,000. Above that, the main horizontal resistance is at $68,900. This is the key level for price to get above to signal a further bullish breakout from there.
• Price is in a local downtrend that could see a small breakout to the upside to $68,900, if Bitcoin can break out of this local downtrend line (red line).

Cryptonary's take 

Price has been rangebound for a long while already, and we do expect this to continue for months until we get that macro green light, where we then expect Bitcoin to start its next and more substantial move higher. 

If price tests the Yellow Buy Box between $62,600 and $63,500, this may provide us an opportunity to Long Bitcoin for a short-term bounce play up to $67,000 as a first target. In terms of expectations for the downside, we believe Bitcoin can maintain itself above $62k/$63k, but if there is a break below that level, we don't expect it to be deep, and we would be buyers of any break below $62k/$63k. 

We expect more rangebound price action but for price to remain nicely in this $60k—$70k range. Once the macro green light comes (from Powell forward-guiding rate cuts, which we expect to come), that'll likely be when we break comfortably above $70k and attempt a more substantial run higher.

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ETH

• ETH has also maintained a high level of Open Interest (amount of leverage).
• ETH's Funding Rate is at 0.005%, indicating that Longs and Shorts are in a relatively even balance, but there is some build-up in Shorts. However, we don't see this as meaningfully directional for now at this Funding Rate of 0.005%.

Technical analysis

• ETH has continued to find buyers/bids below the $3,485 horizontal support, with all the recent Daily candlesticks closing above this level.
• It's possible here that ETH moves higher and tests the red downtrend line, where it'll also find the local horizontal resistance level of $3,700. This may prove a tricky zone for ETH to get above.
• On the downside, the local horizontal support is at $3,485, with the main horizontal support at $3,280.
• We expect prices to remain range bound between $3,280 and $3,700 in the short-term, with buyers stepping into the market if price falls below $3,485, likely meaning that price shouldn't fall below $3,280.
• The RSI has pulled back and is now attempting a breakout of the MA, which could help push ETH to $3,700/$3,800, but we don't expect ETH to break higher than $3,800 in the short term.

Cryptonary's take 

Similarly to Bitcoin, we expect prices to be boring and rangebound in the lower volume summer months, particularly considering we're just a few months from a BTC Halving event, which has historically been a choppy/dull period for price action. 

For now, we continue to remain patient, and we would actually look to bid ETH ourselves if price were to get close to $3,300 and to hold for the next 6-12 months. 

We're also not looking to sell any ETH here and are just holding through the consolidation period. Currently, the expectations are for the ETH ETF inflows to disappoint, so this does leave room for an upside surprise—something to note.

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SOL

• SOL's Open Interest has come down substantially from the highs, indicating that on the most recent move down from $180 to $130, Open Interest declined 30%, suggesting that some leverage traders were wiped out on the move lower.
• SOL's Funding Rate is 0.005%, similar to ETH. There is some Short interest here, but overall, there is a relatively even balance between Longs and Shorts. This is very typical of a rangebound and lower-volume market.

Technical analysis

• SOL has unfortunately broken below its main uptrend line (thicker Yellow line), which is usually not supportive of positive price momentum.
• Price has retested a major horizontal support at $131 and has bounced from that level for now.
• To the upside, there is a downtrend line that may act as resistance if price moves up to retest those levels.
• Also to the upside, some horizontal ranges may now act as horizontal resistances, these levels are at $152 and $162.
• If the horizontal support of $131 is lost, price may pull back to the $110 to $116 range.
• The RSI on the Daily is close to being oversold, so this may help generate a relief bounce in the short term.

Cryptonary's take  

In the long term, we will remain super bullish on SOL. In the short term, we think it's possible that there will be a small bounce in price, but it may find resistance at the $152 or $162 level.

We continue to hold Spot bags, and if the price breaks lower in the coming weeks (although we're unsure of the direction in the short term and think prices likely just remain rangebound), we would be buyers of SOL under $131, particularly if sub $120 is seen. 

Again, we will reiterate that we think prices remain rangebound, and we don't have huge confidence that SOL will test sub $120. But if it does, we'll be buyers. For now, more rangebound action is expected. Don't let it chop you up. Hold Spot, and stay patient.

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WIF

• WIF has been in a straight downtrend now for three weeks, with price having fallen below the major horizontal support of $2.20
• Between $0.46 and $2.20, there hasn't been established support levels, and while this could mean that price plummets now that it's below $2.20, we think WIF has the narrative that below $2.00, it looks undervalued, particularly for the long-term, and therefore we see that it'll be bought up sub $2.00.
• The RSI is close to oversold territory, which may help WIF get a relief rally. If price can break out of the red downtrend line, price could retest $2.70.

Cryptonary's take 

We don't see WIF capitulating. We believe it'll be heavily bought up if it tests anywhere between $1.50 and $1.80. This would be a deviation below the lows of $2.20, but this would be quite typical of memes—break below the horizontal support, deviation, and then heavy buying, reclaiming the support, and rallying. 

We think this can happen for WIF, i.e., big buyers between $1.50 and $1.9. If the price gets back above $2.20, it may likely rally substantially higher, although it would be running into some key horizontal resistance levels. 

For now, we stay patient, as the market suggests. But if WIF retests anywhere between $1.50 and $1.90, we'll be DCA buyers at these levels as we expect much higher prices in the long run.

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POPCAT

• POP has bounced nicely today due to the Kraken Perps and Bybit Spot listings. This is excellent news for the long run, and despite a large pullback from the all-time highs, big Exchanges recognise POPCAT as a major coin among the memes.
• POPCAT held the $0.32 to $0.34 zone as a key support. However, price dropped below it, and we retested the lows at $0.22, which is a horizontal support.
• Price has bounced from horizontal support of $0.22 and broken out of the local downtrend, which has also helped it move back up to $0.32 and retest that as new resistance.
• On the upside, key resistance levels at $0.40 and $0.55 are the major levels that price must break above.
• On the downside, $0.22 is the key support to hold in the short term.
• POPCAT price is in a medium-term downtrend. If price can climb higher and breakout of the main red downtrend line, then this could give it the fuel to retest $0.40. However, we think prices will remain rangebound for a while still.
• This slight price bounce could have come from the RSI being close to oversold territory and forming a bullish divergence.

Cryptonary's take 

Like WIF, we see POPCAT as a bluechip meme that we feel will perform phenomenally over the period of this bull market. In the short term, we expect prices to remain rangebound between $0.22 and $0.32. A break above $0.34 would allow a retest of $0.40, although we don't expect price to break out above this level in the short term. We continue to hold all our Spot bags and remain patient. We believe WIF and POPCAT are two winners to be holding for this bull cycle. Patience.