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Technical Analysis

On-demand TA: We are in undervalued territory

Updated: Nov 20, 2024
Published: Aug 5, 2024
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Opportunities exist even within the current market chaos. The strategy is to identify strength relative to weakness and supercharge your portfolio by building positions in the strong assets.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.


Bitcoin (BTC)

We begin our technical analysis by examining Bitcoin's recent 38% correction. This correction, although significant, does not deviate from the overall bullish structure we’ve been observing. By zooming out, we notice that this movement resembles a bull flag within a substantial expansion range initiated in October. The market has seen a 170% move during that period, highlighting that the current pullback is more of an opportunity than a cause for concern. Our strategy focuses on the key levels of 50k and 56k, where historical demand has shown to be robust, providing optimal entry points for building our positions.

Moreover, our long-term perspective remains optimistic as these levels align with past market behaviours that have demonstrated resilience. We understand that staying zoomed in can make the situation appear more daunting, but zooming out reveals a strong market trend. By maintaining this broader context, we ensure our approach remains balanced and poised to capitalize on these strategic opportunities. Bitcoin continues to act as the market driver, and our strategy reflects confidence in its potential to recover and thrive.

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Ethereum (ETH)

Our analysis of Ethereum reveals a strong swing trade opportunity, particularly at the $2,200 level. Utilizing the Fibonacci retracement from the swing low to the swing high, we identify that Ethereum is at the 61.8% retracement level, a historically attractive point for entries during bull market expansions. This price level offers a potential 100% move to the recent swing high and a 120% move to the all-time high. By allocating a substantial spot position here, we aim to leverage Ethereum’s secure status among the top three cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum’s bullish outlook is further supported by catalysts such as the ETF and other market demands. Despite the recent sell-off, the fundamentals remain strong, making $2,200 an excellent entry point for building positions. We anticipate some price consolidation at this level, which aligns with our broader market conviction. Our strategy is to capitalize on this expected recovery, reinforcing our overall bullish stance on Ethereum.

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Solana (SOL)

Solana’s market behaviour provides a less alarming picture due to its choppy range, which mitigates the perceived severity of the correction.

We initially placed a bid at $143, anticipating support at that level, but as the price moved lower, we are now focused on $120 as an even more attractive entry point. This strategy aligns with our goal to grow our trading account through strategic spot trades rather than relying solely on leverage. Solana’s past performance from the April-March 2022 sell-off to the recent swing high suggests a potential 50% return and, from current levels, an 80% return.

Our confidence in Solana’s resilience is based on its ability to maintain structure even amid significant market downturns. Despite a 10% drop in our initial position, we remain committed to our strategy, understanding that sticking to the plan will pay off in the long term. Solana’s aggressive swings within its range offer numerous opportunities for strategic accumulation, making it a valuable asset in our portfolio.

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Injective (INJ)

Injective has been experiencing a steady bleed, which prompts us to take a more cautious approach.

We identified a level of support at $18.80, which aligns with historical price behaviour and our Fibonacci analysis. However, we recommend holding off on any action until we see a recovery above this level. This period of consolidation and decline suggests that patience is necessary before making further investment moves.

We believe that waiting for clearer signals of recovery or stronger support will help us make more informed decisions regarding Injective. This strategy will prevent premature investments and allow us to enter the market in a more advantageous position once it shows signs of stabilization.

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Pendle (PENDLE)

Pendle has also seen a decline, and we are monitoring its recovery closely.

The $2.50 level is critical, and reclaiming this price point would be a positive indicator for future growth. We observe this as a potential high-timeframe deviation, and a successful recovery would make Pendle an attractive asset again.

Our strategy involves waiting for these key levels to be reclaimed before making any substantial moves. This cautious approach ensures that we are investing at optimal points, reducing risk and maximizing potential returns as the market stabilizes.

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Thorchain (RUNE)

RUNE’s recent market behaviour shows a similar pattern of deviation, but it is holding up relatively well compared to other assets.

The deviation appears less severe, and it continues to dance around key levels. This resilience suggests that RUNE may be a good candidate for accumulation once we see a more definitive support level.

We are closely monitoring RUNE’s price movements, looking for signs of stabilization and potential recovery. This approach allows us to strategically enter positions at levels that promise the best risk-reward ratio, ensuring our investments are well-timed.

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Kaspa (KAS)

Kaspa has returned to a key price point, demonstrating strong demand despite broader market declines.

This behaviour is reminiscent of past movements that showed uncorrelated strength. We see the potential for a significant move if it can establish solid support around its current levels, making it a promising candidate for accumulation.

Our strategy with Kaspa involves closely watching for signs of stabilization and support around these key levels. If these conditions are met, we will look to build our positions, leveraging Kaspa's demonstrated resilience and potential for growth.

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Pepe (PEPE)

Pepe has snapped back to a key support level after some volatility.

The $0.00000593 price point is particularly interesting, as it represents a significant area of demand. Pepe’s chart structure remains attractive compared to other assets, showing potential for a strong recovery.

We are focusing on accumulating Pepe around these key levels, anticipating a bounce-back. The historical price structure supports this strategy, suggesting that Pepe is poised for growth once the market stabilizes.

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Dogecoin (DOGE)

Dogecoin has dipped back into a familiar range, finding support around $0.08423.

This level has historically acted as strong support, and we see potential for a corrective move that could lead to a rebound. Dogecoin’s price action remains relatively better than that of many other assets, which supports our strategy to accumulate around these levels.

We remain optimistic about Dogecoin’s ability to recover and grow from these support levels. Our strategy involves closely monitoring its price action and looking for signs of a rebound, ensuring we capitalize on its potential recovery.

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Shiba Inu (SHIB)

Shiba Inu has fallen out of a wedge formation, and we are looking for a reclaim of the $0.00001640 level to reaffirm our conviction. This level is crucial for re-establishing bullish sentiment. Until then, we will monitor Shiba Inu closely for signs of recovery.

Our approach involves waiting for these key levels to be reclaimed before making significant investments. This strategy ensures that we enter positions when the asset shows clear signs of recovery, reducing our risk.

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Nosana (NOS)

Nosana has experienced a significant bleed but has shown a positive wick lower and subsequent reclamation.

Before making further moves, we want to see continued support around the $0.13 to $0.14 range. This level has shown signs of demand, and consolidation here would strengthen our bullish outlook.

Our strategy focuses on monitoring these support levels and looking for signs of consolidation. If these conditions are met, we will consider building our positions, leveraging Nosana's potential for recovery.

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Arbitrum (ARB)

Arbitrum has been trading well below its previous highs, making it less attractive compared to other assets. The current price of around $0.50 represents a significant drop from the $2 highs earlier in the cycle. Given this weakness, we recommend focusing attention elsewhere until Arbitrum shows stronger signs of recovery.

Our approach is to redirect our investments to assets with stronger charts and more favourable conditions. This strategy ensures that we are allocating resources to the most promising opportunities, maximizing our potential returns.

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Toncoin (TON)

Ton's has retraced back to $4.75, which we view as an excellent investment opportunity. Despite the recent downturn, we believe Ton's holds strong potential for recovery. Our strategy involves accumulating at these levels, anticipating a bounce-back once the market stabilizes.

We remain confident in Ton's long-term potential and are prepared to take advantage of the current low prices. By building our positions now, we aim to benefit from the expected recovery and subsequent growth.

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Mina (MINA)

Mina remains in our sights, but we are waiting for it to reclaim the $1 mark before considering it attractive. This level is crucial for re-establishing bullish sentiment. Until then, we will monitor Mina closely and focus on other opportunities.

Our strategy with Mina is to wait for clear signs of recovery before making significant investments. This approach ensures that we enter positions when the asset shows strong potential for growth, reducing our risk.

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Avalanche (AVAX)

Avalanche has held up relatively well, maintaining its structure within a past range of accumulation. Despite market volatility, AVAX has not broken its structure, which supports our strategy of continuing to monitor it and potentially accumulating if it shows signs of recovery.

Our confidence in AVAX is based on its resilience and the maintenance of key structural levels. We aim to capitalize on this by strategically building positions as the market stabilizes and AVAX shows further signs of strength.

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DogWifHat (WIF)

Wif has shown remarkable resilience despite broader market sell-offs. It has only slightly deviated from its key price point of around $1.5, which indicates strong support. We see this as a prime opportunity to accumulate Wif between $2 and $1.5, leveraging its demonstrated stability and potential for growth.

Our strategy focuses on taking advantage of Wif's relative strength and consistent performance. By accumulating at these levels, we aim to benefit from its potential to set new highs and generate substantial returns.

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Popcat (POPCAT)

Popcat's recent retracement was anticipated, and we view it as a significant opportunity.

We noted that Popcat tends to seek out key levels and settle into them, with the 0.2 level being a critical point for accumulation. Capturing this level could yield a potential 300% gain to the all-time high. Our past experiences with similar retracements provide confidence in this strategy, as we understand the asset's behaviour and market cycles.

We emphasize the importance of maintaining emotional balance and focusing on the bigger picture. Popcat's deviation and potential to reclaim higher levels present a strategic buying opportunity. This approach aligns with our broader market strategy of leveraging the characteristics and historical behaviours of assets to make informed decisions, ensuring we capitalize on the market's cyclical nature.

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Cryptonary's take

Many participants will be shaken out here and over the coming phase of this market. Unfortunately, that's why many fail overall. It's time to think differently from the crowd. With patience and conviction, these are times when people can make very significant decisions.

We are looking to prepare for some lower prices over the next few weeks. Therefore, we are looking to build spot positions, focusing on strong assets that have performed well this cycle so far and rotating out of weak assets. Sometimes, these times offer a nice second chance.

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